No one I bet. But many of us have lots more than that in our 401k’s & rollover IRA’s. If you have cash equivalents or more conservative investments in those types of accounts, imo, it would be prudent to consider rebalancing from possible
1 yr return green positions to traditional steady growth funds that took a hard hit. The markets have always bounced back eventually. Sell high, buy low, rinse & repeat.
FWIW, I think markets will continue to drop for next week or 2 though.
Americans & foriegners who play US markets have it easy in the prediction game. The Nikkei tripped off on meltdown before the EST Sunday midnight. Yep, I’m not buying anything today, still watching the fall waiting for the bottom. There’s a lot of profit to be had from all of this for sure.
Japan’s Nikkei is up +6% today. I hope this crisis still has some life in it. I was waiting for lower. If this is it, that sucks for those on the sidelines waiting to buy cheaper. But I have faith in the market manipulators, prehaps yesterday was a false bottom, today maybe a dead cat bounce?
There is more carnage to come unless things change quickly. The bond market is getting nervous as major holders inside and outside the US are shedding US bonds. Yields up 60 basis points in 3 days! People are shedding US bonds .
Trumps takeover of the legal system along with his autocratic governing makes the smart money people nervous. They worry that US bonds which are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government now means the full faith and credit of Trump. He could arbitrarily decide bond holders have to take a haircut and no one could stop him. Certainly not his own cabinet or congress. The big law firms won’t fight him now so you’d be well screwed. That makes people nervous and threatens the US dollar as a reserve currency. Would you take an IOU from Trump? Remember his time at Wharton? One of Trump’s marketing professors at Wharton, the late William Kelley, apparently thought little of his student. A close friend of the professor, Frank DiPrima, said that Kelley told him 100 times over three decades that “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.” “I remember his emphasis and inflection — it went like this — ‘Donald Trump was the dumbest goddamn student I ever had,’” DiPrima wrote. “Dr. Kelley told me this after Trump had become a celebrity but long before he was considered a political figure. Dr. Kelley often referred to Trump’s arrogance when he told of this — that Trump came to Wharton thinking he already knew everything.” https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-tariffs-bonds-2025-04-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-orders-targeting-law-firms-raise-constitutional-concerns-experts-say-2025-03-08/
I agee with this & also about what you referenced with the bond market & the sense of uncertainty. But if the economy continues to decline the Fed will surely lower interest rates. And those who took finance 101 or ever studied money should know the maxim about bonds & interest rates. Perhaps US bonds will pay so well they’d be hard to resist? I think a lot of this will depend on how well other countries & markets weather the storm. If another country looks to be a safe harbor in a global recession then thats where the safe money will anchor. If the US economy & markets does just as bad as everyone else or slightly better, then the pecking order will stay the same. No matter what, it’s not the end of the world yet.
What about you @tengineer1 ? During or after the pandemic you told me you had a nice chunk of your retirement nest egg in TIPS which had to pay off quite well with the inflation crisis following the pandemic. Great call! What about now? Hedging with foreign currency, other national bonds or sticking with the tried & true treasury inflation protected securities? Those things would probably hold up pretty good against a couple new rounds of Quantitative Easing & maybe against the non-stop, 24/7 QE like the few in the MMT crowd wants?
Savings bonds are the only bond that is actually guaranteed by the US instead of ‘faith’ like treasury bonds. Unfortunately you can only buy $10,000 per year so even putting bonds into the children’s name limits so i have a decent amount in US government money market funds. After the election I started moving some of that to pound sterling. If things keep going south I may have to buy another mattress
Trailing stop and stop-loss orders protect what I have in equities. As long as my phone isn’t chiming notifications I don’t worry too though I did have a few WTF moments a few days ago when the chimes got annoying.
I’m not an insider but that’s what I’ve been saying all along! I was waiting for it to fall farther but if I would have started dollar cost averaging the day I opened this thread or when the Nasdaq hit the -20% last week, I would have walked away yesterday like a bandit. I quit looking but almost every ticker I listed has bounced back from Fridays lows.
Lessons learned. START ADDING IN INCREMENTS WHEN THE DOW, NASDAQ OR S&P HITS -20%. Only buy things that I would want to hold for 5 yrs just in case I’m wrong.
I’m no Insider or genius but I’ve made more money than I imagined I ever would in the markets. I definitely believe there’s still a lot of money to be made from Prez 47s term for those willing to do the research, search for patterns, wait for opportunities, take the risk & most importantly, stay unemotional about it.
As of yesterday closing:
Doom & Gloom, the sky is falling, this is the end crowd = zero points.
The Resilient US Markets = has bounced back to score too many times to count.
Apparently if you keep up with any financial websites or follow DJT on social media or follow any of those who hate DJT on social media who repeats everything he says, then you had inside info. The WaPo, CNN, Reuters, Fox, AP all claim DJT told the nation at 0937EST to start buying into US markets in anticipation of news. At 11:30 WH announced a Press Conference after 13:00. At 11:30 is when that spike on you chart started happening. During the PR the markets started taking off & the rest is history. A retail investor didn’t need to wiretap Berkshire Hathaway or live inside the Belt Way to take advantage of that inside info because blabber mouth Trump can’t keep it shut. He told everyone on the internet!?
Opened a call credit spread a few weeks ago. When the tariffs were paused I took a 12k profit on the long calls and rolled the short calls out; betting that Trump was gonna do something else retarded.
I ended up closing them out this morning for 25k profit. I did spend about 8k on far OTM calls to reduce my BPu. So total profit after everything was 29k.
With VIX still 30+ and irrational leadership I’ll likely open up another Call credit spread.
I would not advise buying bonds in Freight Technologies Inc.
An international trucking logistics firm is buying as much as $20 million worth of President Donald Trump’s crypto coins to influence the administration’s trade policy — the precise sort of corruption that experts warned Trump was encouraging when he unveiled his venture.
Freight Technologies Inc. CEO Javier Selgas said in a Wednesday news release that buying Trump coin would be “an effective way to advocate for fair, balanced and free trade between Mexico and the U.S.”
The release was attached to a filing that same day with the Securities and Exchange Commission explaining why Freight Technologies was issuing bonds. “The company will use the net proceeds from the offering to purchase TRUMP coins,” the company told the SEC.
That’s some serious bribery but legal insofar as it won’t be investigated.
Unless you have an intimate knowledge of a persons investment strategies, age, income, risk tolerance & goals, it’s best not to recommend they buy or sell anything.
A few years ago I bought more than $10k worth of PLUG, a hydrogen energy company around $13.00 a share even though I knew the technology was +10 years from becoming profitable. A couple months later I sold at $41’sh, still knowing they were +10 yrs from making it a reality. PLUG closed this Friday at $0.84. Clean, green energy was all over the media 3 yrs ago & I nearly made $30k with it. While I don’t swing trade like I used too, imo, there’s nothing wrong with making money off media hype & idiots if you need to. If an investor has the disposable income, grits & need to make money off the Trump hype they should imo.