What is wrong with the Russian military? - Ukraine

[freighterman1]

@lm1883

The Ukraine formed prison brigades within the first few weeks of the war.

The Ukraine has mobilized their entire population for war. All of it. Kids. Old men. Prisoners. About 22% of the Ukraine military are now women, some in frontline fighting capacities. But it is telling that a vaunted military unit of the “unbeatable” Russian fighting machine is reduced to holding career-fairs in prisons (I wonder what kind of trinkets they give out? Shivs with GO RUSSIA printed on them?)

The Ukrainians are all-in. Why is Putin on the fence about a draft?

@lm1883

Western analysts have consistently been telling me for the last six months that Putin was going to fold any day now

Which Western analysts? The analysts I read in WAPO/NYT/BBC/Guardian/AP back in February were not sanguine about Ukraine lasting long against the Russians. They were wrong. Now, many of those same analysts say the war will grind on for months. They use the grim phrase “war of attrition”. I can send you links to those articles. So when you say “consistently” I don’t know which “Western analysts” you refer to.

@lm1883

Meanwhile, Putin’s energy embargo is economically breaking down Europe. I’d encourage anyone to Google “cost of living crisis” if they are curious as to how things are working out over there

Back in July I wrote:

@freighterman1

Every day the Ukrainians get stronger, with some of the best weapons in the world flooding into them, gratis. Every day the Russians get weaker, and spend their oil money rearming with old tech, at inflated prices.

You countered:

@lm1883

I wish the Ukrainians I meet had your enthusiasm, but sadly they disagree with your analysis. The Russians are winning in Ukraine,

I think events have proved me right. Not that I am a military genius, but because the analyses I had been reading has been proven right by events. I also wrote:

@freighterman1

The war will go on as long as the Ukrainians have the will to fight, and allied nations have the will to fund them.

If we agree on anything it is that the second part of the equation is as important as the first part. It is interesting that today PM Modi of India told Putin today he is against the war and wants it to end. The other day in meetings with Putin, Chinese president Xi did not endorse the war. So, Putin’s allies and friends are not exactly bolstering him. War for them is bad for profits.

Putin is buying military hardware from Iran and North Korea. Why isn’t he making his own? Inflation cuts both ways. Russia is making billions from increased oil prices, but inflation is skyrocketing there too. Hence the need to buy war materiel elsewhere, some of it of inferior quality (and likely bought in dollars).

Putin, like Europe, is under pressure to find a way out. Remember WW1: Czars are all-powerful–until they are taken to the basement for a bullet. Which gets back to my question: Why doesn’t Putin start a draft? Answer: because it’s a step closer to the basement.

Who will blink first, he or the European public? I can’t say.