The war will go on as long as the Ukrainians have the will to fight, and allied nations have the will to fund them. It is in the allies’ self-interests to fund them.
As I wrote in an earlier post, Putin has an alternative short of conquering Ukraine: retain control of a small enclave (Donbas), heavily fortify it, claim that was his goal all along, and declare victory.
From that new “independent country” he will spread terrorism, sabotage, guerrilla raids, and chaos throughout the Ukraine. Millions more of refugees will be displaced, causing misery and resentment throughout Europe. This plan is already largely in place, and is part of Putin’s strategy of destabilizing Europe and the USA.
Putin will make sure this enclave includes much of, but not all of, the Russian-ethnic Ukrainian areas. The Ukrainians will try to stamp out the chaos emanating from this enclave but in doing so will necessarily expel/detain/hang some of the Russian ethnics as collaborators. The Ukrainians will attack the enclave itself, making them the aggressors. All this Putin will proclaim as proof that the Ukrainians were bloodthirsty Nazis all along.
The chaos Putin himself causes he will blame on Ukrainians leaders. His internet based propaganda machine will make sure the far-right elements of western governments start singing the tune. Bogus blogs. Puppet websites. Fake videos. Forum trolls. At first just a few far-right pundits will sing Putin’s praises—they have an affinity for strongmen. Then more and more on the right will join the chorus.
Putin calculates that Europe will tire of the refugees and fuel shortages and will give up on the Ukraine. Once that happens, Putin will turn to Estonia and the other Baltics and say, You can claim freedom but you belong to Russia now. Hungary too. No one will protect you. I will appoint the strongmen who will win your elections. Any leaders who say otherwise will be destroyed by internet smear propaganda, amplified by useful-idiot western pundits. Or by assassination.
Once Putin wins, his thuggery will be applauded by far-right elements as genius. They will celebrate him as the strongman who defeated the villainous Ukraine and brought peace to Europe. One prominent American political leader has already called Putin “brilliant”.
Anyone who backed the Ukrainians’ fight for liberty will be called idiots, or Nazis, or the worst word in the far-right lexicon: weak. With Putin as a model, strongmen will be elected throughout the west. Democracy will be in retreat. Churchill warned about this nearly a century ago.
So the new allies have reasons to back up the Ukrainians. The question is, will the Ukrainians continue to fight?