Based on the fact that they’ve already hinted at an invasion and have been building up forces similar to the ruskies. With everyone distracted with Russia, doing it soon would make sense. I imagine they’ll see how Ukraine goes and then make a decision soon.
Invading a foreign country to change the established regime in the name of ones own national interest? Never heard that one before.
I can’t remember how many times I’ve said that our world is now multi-polar and we are seeing that play out in real time.
Edit-As an afterthought I figured I’d post one of my favorite websites for these kinds of things. It’s kind of an aggregator of news and media posts with a map location.
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It’s not multi-polar at all, it is distinctly bi-polar.
Them or us.
Regardless of which side you are on.
China hasn’t “hinted”, they have for years said that Taiwan would one day be reunited with the motherland. They would prefer that to happen by persuasion, but it could also be by force, if necessary. Nothing new there and nothing indicating that China has lost patient yet, as long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, or some outside power gets involved. (for domestic political reasons).
As you may know the US has accepted the “One Chine” policy for several decades, as has the UN and all but a handful of small countries. It became too reticules to officially recognize the Republican (Kuomintang) Government that run away to Taiwan in 1949, (after loosing the civil war) as the legitimate Government of China and holder of China’s permanent seat at the UN Security Council.
Even the present Government in Taipei does not claim that anymore, although they claim the official name Republic of China (ROC)
It is definitively a multi-polar world now. The “Them or us” is not a clear cut thing anymore.
Who are “Them” and who are “Us” in today’s world is far from a simple thing to define, nor is it steady. It depends on what is the national interest of individual countries in each individual case and changes from case to case. (even while a case develops)
Blocks and alliances also change with time and with national interests.
In this Ukrainian crises it appears that the NATO Alliance is speaking with one voice (for now) Only a few years ago there were fractures showing up, however. That MAY not have been entirely repaired yet and may never be.
“Russia can certainly defeat Ukraine but control it?” Guess this is taking a bit longer than everyone thought. As history has taught us- “straight plains” invasions usually move very quickly and grab lots of territory… Urban areas are much different. In fact, the Germans attempted to take Kiev on two attacks and failed. In 1943, a superior German force which was much better equipped was encircled and devastated.
Urban warfare ? Conventionally fought? My money is on the Ukrainians.
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I take it you haven’t been following any other of the major Chinese buildup near Taiwan.
There is a kind of sick fascination watching this ‘play’ out.
I have been sailing with Ukrainians for the last 6 years; prior to that, had a vague idea where Ukraine was and even less interest in knowing anything about it.
Now I am in a bizarre situation of sailing with people whose country has been invaded.
In 2022, WTF?
Has nobody learned anything?
I was sailing on a Danish tanker when Argentina invaded the Falklands, the Danes thought it most amusing when HMS Sheffield was sunk (by a frigging French missile, merci mon ami).
They didn’t think it quite so amusing when the body count started coming in.
I have, Taiwan is just across the Strait from China. They may not be building up their forces to attack Taiwan but to defend against other threats and provocations.
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China is too busy annexing the South China Sea (which is a Western name, not Chinese) to bother too much about Taiwan at the moment.
Don’t forget, our Oriental friends are very good at playing the long game so there is no rush to do anything about Taiwan.
Which was ceded to Japan by the Chinese in 1895.
And treating their people like ants.
Yes that is right, the Japanese held Taiwan (Formosa) from 1895-1945, when it was returned to China (ROC)
The Han Chinese started to settle on Taiwan in the 15th Century .
The Europeans (Portuguese, Spanish and Dutch) set up trading post and looked for gold there in the 16-hundreds.
When the Nationalist retreated to the island in 1949 they maintained they were the ROC and even had seats in their parliament “representing” the various mainland provinces.
Taiwan may have been defacto independent for some time, but it has never had the status of an independent country called Taiwan.
Here is a very brief history of Formosa/Taiwan, if anybody should be interested:
Guess the Captain said “go fuck yourself” to the same Russian frigate.
Here is a solution…Taiwan could vote to go back to being part of Japan (since China ceded the island to them in 1895). Japan could then grant them independence if they so desired.
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Respectfully, as an ‘Oriental’ (as a yellow Oriental and not a white Norwegian Oriental wannabe), the crap about long game is just ignorant racist tripe. Do not fall for that bullshit.
Returned to China? Oh, for Christ sake. Do you think you’re yellow through and through?
Taiwan is as much Chinese as Manchuria is Japanese. Or Norwegian is Nazi. You have about as much right to speak for the Eastern Asian an the British have to speak for the Pakistani.
I with you.
And for the other dude: it’s 100 miles from mainland to Taiwan. China has been acting more and more hostile and assertive regarding Taiwan. They’ve also stepped up their rhetoric that Taiwan is property of china and will be reclaiming it. It’s very similar to the way Russia had asserted Crimea is theirs before they invaded. Then in July 2021, Putin blatantly said would reclaim ukraine which we are seeing now. This was no surprise he has been saying it would happen.
China has been saying they will reclaim Taiwan yet people keep brushing it off. They’ve been violating their airspace repeatedly and building up forces in/around the area which hints towards an invasion being imminent in the near future.
And china is doing what they’re doing in the South China Sea so they can extend their territorial seas and EEZ. No one is recognizing their man made islands as legitimate claims but china sure believes they are.
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It is a pity that my work in Ukraine 1992/8 is of no interest and cannot be viewed at gcaptain forum.
Yes that could be a good idea, but it may open a can of worms.
Maybe the Russians want back Alaska, preferably peacefully, but…
Denmark would like to have back their colony in the sun; Dansk Vestindia (Now USVI).
They wouldn’t mind paying back (with interest) whatever you paid way back when. (1917)
PS>But Denmark will not give you Greenland in return. Cash only.
PPS> I hear the French are not interested in buying back Louisiana, even if you sell at a discount.
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