The Ramifications

It pays never to underestimate the intelligence of your opponent. There seems to be just a small group of sycophants who have enabled this fiasco to take place. To assume that the Strait would remain open goes against every war gaming result that I can think of.

The Iranians hold all the cards. Putin remembers the Great Game played out in 1846 and is smiling as he pockets oil revenue. China is eying a move away from the petrodollar, the US defence industry will bleed the US taxpayer white and though out the western world Americans have shown how to win friends and influence people.

Throughout history there have been autocrats and tyrants. Caligula, Stalin, Hitler, Ruholla Khomeini, Pol Pot, Mao among others. They all had their believers many of whom died still worshiping them long after their cult leader has died. It is futile to try and change such a mind or reason with them as their beliefs are not based on reason. To engage with them should be done for entertainment purposes only.

Have You ever been in doubt that my purpose was different . ??? I need to urgently reinstall my software then . .

Here’s an all encompassing assessment of the war on Iran from a respected Stanford professor of war.

It’s long, but comprehensive.

I can’t vouch for the truth in the below, but sounds plausible:
on Diplomacy & Warfare
Posted by: Prof Elyon](https://www.quora.com/profile/Prof-Elyon)
Mar 1

:united_states::iran: Iran fell for the same trick as Hezbollah’s Nasrallah.

  1. The US made an offer that required the Iranian side to discuss details.
  2. Iran held a meeting to discuss the offer and develop a negotiation strategy.
  3. The US struck the meeting, killing many officials, including Khamenei.
    —) Negotiations were used as a weapon to gather them all in one room while they felt safe.
    It’s the 2nd or 3rd time this trick has worked.

    Source: https://qr.ae/pFpgQY

The difference between what happened in the1989-90 Congressional session and today’s Congress will have ramifications long into the future, not only for USA and the Americas, but for the whole world. (Possibly beyond?).

There is an article in WAPO today that is a timely reminder of how things CAN be done, if there is a will to see and act according to reality, not partisan politics:

In 1990, a bipartisan Congress passed historic bills. Then it cracked apart.

36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.


(Illustration by Natalie Vineberg/The Washington Post; iStock)

Source: https://wapo.st/4cply3p (Gift article. No paywall)

Yes I know, it is none of my business. I’m old and not even an American, so all this doesn’t affect me.
Wong. What happen in US domestic and foreign policy affect the whole world. Just look at the mess caused by the present situation in the Middle East, caused by the present US administration and Congress.

PS: With the elections coming up in November and 2028, can we hope for a President and Congress that make sensible policies, advantageous for both the US and the rest of the world, not partisan and shortsighted decisions that gets EVERYBODY into trouble?

That means no negotiations with ppl who are liers and not acting in good faith.

If you negotiate u are a target and they have learned it from their good and costly friends here:

On 9 September 2025, at 3:46 p.m. AST, ten missiles fired from IDF fighter jets struck a residential compound next to the Woqod petrol station on Wadi Rawdan Street in the Leqtaifiya district of Doha, targeting the senior political leadership of Hamas.

The trick with exploding telephones however was not yet re[peated but who knows.

Nobody will trust them again.

Watch mid terms. Both houses taken by Dems and then Clit-ton ver. 2.0. Can not wait to watch it. “ I told Monika to sack the cook but she got it all wrong “.

Dr. Hanson is a dude who was also very supportive of the war against Iraq. As much as I respect his education and imagine he’s brilliant in many ways, I question someone who is such a student of history but was also so enamored with a conflict that was launched under such questionable motives and so destined for failure. I would imagine most people in hindsight consider the Iraq invasion a mistake and incredible waste of national treasure, blood, and global goodwill, and a significant distraction from what could have been a more successful execution of operations in Afghanistan that were already ongoing.

I personally protested against the Iraq war before it ever began, but the blood lust of the Neocons is a mighty force to oppose, in spite of the lessons of history.

That seems to be the entirety of your (non) argument.

Argumentum ad hominem, or ad hominem, is a logical fallacy and refers to a type of argument where someone attacks the character or motives of a person making an argument instead of addressing the argument itself. This tactic is often used to divert attention from the actual issue being discussed.

You didn’t watch the video. You just decided you didn’t like who was talking.

If a so called expert, who is obviously well educated, has a track record of misjudging situations and making bad analysis of military actions or exercises in certain parts of the world I’m going to question their future analysis based on that bad track record. It’s one thing if it is an uneducated gullible person who simply listens to the media and follows the general consensus. However from someone like Dr. Hanson I expect more nuanced and intelligent analysis. His support for the Iraq invasion is a MAJOR red flag from my perspective as he really should have known better that that was an ill advised military adventure by the U.S. and others at a time they could least afford it. Given his support of that debacle any future analysis of his from my perspective is questionable as I feel that in spite of his significant education on the subject he seems unable to foresee very obvious issues that I myself with significantly less experience or education felt were pretty obvious.

I’m sure you feel similarly regarding well educated scientists that champion the fight against global warming.

Would love to see /hear his duel/deabate with Prof John Mearsheimer and Prof Jeffery Sachs.

.

So you still haven’t watched the video and thus can’t comment on anything he said in over 90 minutes of analysis. So your armchair analysis remains that he once made a mistake (in your hindsight opinion) so he has a “track record” of being wrong about everything now on a subject in which he’s an acknowledged expert … and you aren’t.

I watched the video. VDH repeatedly says “If the ceasefire holds….” and “if he’s successful”… and “if the strait opens back up again” and “all those people who thought this was going to be a forever war, AND IT COULD BE, BUT IF IT’S NOT…..” etc etc etc

Basically, he’s laying out a case of Trump’s victory before it’s happened, in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

Now, you can spend 90 minutes watching these talking heads argue their position that this is the worst strategic blunder in modern history and the death knell of Pax Americana. And no, they aren’t leftists nor do they have TDS (Trump Devotion Syndrome)

By the way, bringing a 90 minute video to a discussion forum and complaining about users not wanting to sit through it and debate it point by point is intellectually lazy. If you want to discuss an argument, take the time to write it out yourself or quit throwing stones.

I’ll admit I didn’t watch it to the end, but like I said at some point Dr. Hanson’s prior errors in this part of the world starts to smack more of agenda rather than insight and suggests to me that he wants things to be certain way, rather than accepting the facts as they might actually be or the likelihood that they will end up otherwise. Given his admitted optimism for the succession of various conflicts he doesn’t strike me as a particularly effective student of history in that distinctive and problematic part of the world.

If we suddenly have peace in the Middle East and an acquiescent Iran, yes Trump will look like a genius. However the policy that the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz so that Iran can’t, honestly feels Orwellian and more of a desperate knee jerk reaction to an unanticipated side affect of ready, fire, aim.

I can’t help feeling Trump and his merry band in no way anticipated the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, even though that was the most obvious play of an Iranian regime that is otherwise completely outgunned.

Yes, if all of the POTUS’s plans play out as he wishes he will have accomplished a great deal, but given how both Afghanistan and Iraq played out I have very little confidence in a long term solution via diplomacy by bombing campaign, especially in this part of the world and against these people given this is not a people or a place that has any history of being easily conquered or cowed.

Certainly if you can obstinately resist the years of scientific consensus regarding global climate change I can pretty easily dismiss the predictions of Dr. Hanson until they actually come to pass.

And in my case it was not “hindsight”. I knew Iraq was a mistake well before it ever happened. I may not have a PhD in history but I have the common sense and independence to look at the case made for that invasion and see it for what it was. Unfortunately I didn’t have the same pulpit as Dr. Hanson to state my uneducated but ultimately correct opinion.

You’ve mentioned one supposed error, not multiple. And errors in whose opinion?

Or he could just be making an expert prediction.

Trump is strangling Iran’s essential income from oil and eventually ensuring ships aren’t encumbered by illegal tolls in the future. Even you can understand that or are you happy to pay the jizya forever.

Do you think the entirety of the Pentagon are idiots too? Trump knew that and your suggestion he didn’t is infantile.

I’ll await your apology in due course.

Just a hint. Consensus isn’t science, it’s mob rule. Never has been since the consensus that the sun revolved around the earth. Are you still with that scientific consensus?

And good that you can dismiss people’s predictions “until they actually come to pass.” Wow! Everyone can be that smart. Oh, and since you didn’t watch the video, you don’t know what he predicted or why.

Good for you. You wanted a murdering madman to keep murdering. Got it.

You’ll get lots of disagreement from all directions about your set-assessed “correct opinion”. I’m not bothering to set you straight.

Are you saying it won’t happen? Just say it.

I never said that, did I? I offered a video as an interesting take. Others dismissed it as propaganda without actually watching. That was my beef. That so-called self-assessed experts commenting here can dismiss 90 minutes of arguments without knowing what they were is infantile.

I do argue here occasionally. My posting a video was exactly as I described it below.

It wasn’t my argument. It was just a video. Watch or don’t watch, but don’t shoot the messenger.

You have a valid point here.

But.

In a topic like this in order to write rebuttal one can not wrap it in two or 3 sentences having no expert knowledge and education like the Professor quoted by @Jughead .

Even if I had such attributes like above mentioned nobody will consider my arguments seriously here as I am not a recognizable authority in geopolitics or military.

It would be laughable and result in jabs , veiled insults, incognito flagging etc etc. by those not accepting my line of argument even if supported by sources , links, literature.

In addition those who have short attention span of 5 secs or less will complain and scream and criticize it is too long , their thumbs will be in pain by scrolling, that they are mentally and physically exhausted and they are tortured and harassed .

So instead of my incoherent mumbo jumbo I think it is better to throw a stone like the one below instead of wasting time in writing briefs from what I heard in the clip.

Besides the gents talking there do geopolitics for a living and are not amateurs like me on gCaptain forum , what surprisingly still allows political topics on it’s premises.

Then shut it down otherwise suffer in pain seeing a drastic increase of NOISE to SIGNAL ratio.

Have inserted lately two maritime /accidents topics for testing the members interest and the result is obvious .They do not give a shit and flock to a lump of sugar called POLITICS instead. It is very tale telling.

Thx for JIZYA. I learn as i go here.