Iran crisis and the effect on world shipping

[ombugge]

Iran attacks send shipping into chaos - Splash247

The US Combined Maritime Forces’ Joint Maritime Information Center announced on Sunday that it raised its overall risk assessment to its highest level, with three confirmed strikes on merchant ships to date resulting in one seafarer death and others injured, and many ports in the region forced to suspend operations for periods of time over the weekend.
Following the earlier attack on the sanctioned chemical tanker Skylight off Oman, Iranian forces struck two more tankers in the region, while a fourth vessel reported a near miss.

Not only shipping is affected. Crude Oil price rise will affect everybody, even large producers and exporters:

Oil prices have leapt with analysts from JPMorgan and Barclays warning that prices could spike to $100 to $130 per barrel if the conflict results in a prolonged disruption of supply.
“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” Citi analysts said in a report over the weekend.
“Elevated global benchmark prices and steep backwardation are expected to be sustained until the strait is again passable,” said Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
Approximately 15m barrels per day of crude oil transit the Strait of Hormuz, representing close to 30% of global seaborne crude trade.

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Norwegian shipping company: – A critical situation, but we are trying to remain calm

Iran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz. This could have major consequences for Norwegian ships in the strait and global trade.

ALMOST STOPPED: The animation shows shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours until March 1, 2026 at 1:54 p.m. A large number of ships are also seen lying completely still outside the strait. map animation MarineTraffic

Limited traffic

CEO of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, Knut Arild Hareide, says that the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, but that traffic through the strait is very limited.
He explains that everything indicates that commercial shipping is not a direct target for either party so far in the conflict.
– Norwegian seafarers are used to living with the type of tensions we see now, but it is a very extra burden, because it creates uncertainty. Not least in this situation, which is so unclear, says Hareide.

Knut Arild Hareide has been CEO of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association since August 2024. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB

Source: Konsekvenser av stengt Hormuzstredet for norske rederi – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

[Hornblower]

@ombugge

He explains that everything indicates that commercial shipping is not a direct target for either party so far in the conflict.

He explains that everything indicates that commercial shipping is not a direct target for either party so far in the conflict.

Ok; so when is ‘our’ party likely to consider us a valid target?

Would be good to know.

[Binbag_the_Saylore]

The MSI warning is a little “tame”, or should I say “lame”

"281520 UTC FEB 2026
NAVAREA IX 084/26

ARABIAN SEA PERSIAN GULF, GULF OF OMAN, NORTH ARABIAN SEA, STRAIT OF HORMUZ
CHARTS BA 2851, 2858, 707 AND 3785
MILITARY CONFLICT IN GULF REGION (.)
MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MAINTAIN LISTENING WATCH ON CHANNEL 16 (.)
VESSELS TRAVERSING THE IDENTIFIED AREA ARE TO NAVIGATE WITH CAUTION"

[spowiednick]

NHOs should visit gCaptain forum more frequently for urgent updates regarding the situation in the area and accurate analyses.

As of early March 2026, active NAVAREA IX warnings (covering the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Persian Gulf) include military conflict alerts, live weapon firing exercises near Pakistan, and survey operations in the Northern Gulf. Key warnings include:

National Hydrographic Office Pakistan +1

• NAVAREA IX 084/26 (Military Conflict): Continued caution for vessels in the Gulf region, advising a strict listening watch on Channel 16.

• NAVAREA IX 082/26 (Live Firing): Live weapon firing in Pakistan approaches (Karachi) scheduled for 03-04 March 2026, 0300-1200 UTC.

• NAVAREA IX 081/26 (Naval Firing): Naval firing exercises occurring 02-06, 09-13, 16-20, 23-27, and 30-31 March 2026, 0300-1900 UTC.

• NAVAREA IX 062/26 (Survey Operations): Bathymetric survey and boreholes operation in Northern Gulf (Kuwait) by vessels Vision 2, Naya, and Musaed 01001 until 31 March 2026.

• NAVAREA IX 050/26 (Hazard): Barge “Dream 1” reported sunk in the Northern Gulf (Kuwait).

[Binbag_the_Saylore]

More on the insurance (as discussed in main gCaptain article)…

01/2026 Notice of cancellation for war risks - Member Circulars | Gard

The Middle East conflict: Contractual and insurance implications | Gard’s Insights | Gard

[Binbag_the_Saylore]

… and other warnings…
2026-001A-Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea-Military Operations and Potential Retaliatory Strikes by Iranian Forces | MARAD

JMIC Advisories - 2026

[ombugge]

3,200 ships caught up in Hormuz paralysis - Splash247

Iranian officials compounded the crisis by asserting control over the strait. Iranian state media quoted senior commanders saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that “the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze” if they try to pass, a statement that has heightened market fear over the potential to trap 14-15m barrels per day of crude in the Middle East Gulf.

Clarksons Research noted that as of last night, 3,200 vessels remain inside the Gulf, equating to 4% of global tonnage, including 112 crude tankers and 114 containerships; roughly 500 vessels are waiting off the UAE and Oman coastlines.

PS: Assuming 20 crew per vessel, that means roughly 64K seafarers are stuck there, though not their fault, or wish.

Another effect on shipping:

Escalating disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil and tanker markets sharply higher. Several suezmax spot rates are now reported fixed on sub at over $300,000 per day, loading from the Persian Gulf and going east.

Source: Naftomar tied to suezmax deal as rates break the $300,000 mark in the Persian Gulf - Splash247

[ombugge]

Since nobody else has done it yet, here is a link to Sal’s video on the Straits of Hormuz situation today:

Dire Strait - Strait of Hormuz Update for March 3, 2026 | Some Ships Run the Strait with AIS Off

[ombugge]

Bunker prices raises cost for shipping worldwide:

Hormuz closure sends bunker prices to record levels - Splash247

Meanwhile, the architect of the war, US president Donald Trump, is attempting to assuage fears over the spiralling price of oil, urging tankers to get moving in the Middle East, while hinting he’s willing to let Russia export more to fill the gap.
“These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News over the weekend, discussing the current tanker paralysis seen on either side of the Strait of Hormuz. “There’s nothing to be afraid of… they have no navy, we sunk all their ships,” he claimed.

[tengineer1]

Yep, everyone knows you can’t sink a ship unless you have a navy. Houthis would disagree but..

[spowiednick]

what Dr.Sal thinks?

Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade | 10 March 2026

[spowiednick]

Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development

fresh from UNCTAD

osgttinf2026d1_en.pdf

[ombugge]

Behind Closed Doors, U.S. Navy Says Hormuz Escorts Are Too Dangerous—for Now

Too dangerous for the US Navy?
Maybe they should “show some guts”, just like the crews on ships that is called on to sail the Hormouzand the area around, with or without escort:

Multiple ships hit on day 12 of Iran war - Splash247

[ombugge]

Why it's so hard to get oil through the Strait of Hormuz right now

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States had destroyed 28 ships capable of laying mines, amid fears Tehran could deploy hundreds of mines to effectively booby-trap the shipping lane, all but guaranteeing longer-term disruption.

Meanwhile, captains and shipowners must also grapple with a web of legal, insurance and brokerage concerns, meaning most have little choice but to try and wait out the crisis.

“The constraint is not just physical danger — it’s that the financial infrastructure that enables global shipping is temporarily breaking down,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, a London-based company that tracks energy and cargo shipping globally.

[BeaverBoy]

Any news on the US Embassy bombing in Norway? Not much news coverage here in the states.

[Binbag_the_Saylore]

Just popped up on AJ.
“investigations suggest Iranian explosive-laden boats were behind the attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters.”