Good summary here:
I’m no expert in this but the situation seems like it could be a serious or worse as when the Ever Given grounded in the Suez Canal but much more difficult to solve and with wider ranging implications.
Why? It’s not as if we don’t know the precise locations where the drones are launched from. The wider ranging repercussions are the more difficult part to control.
The Houthis are politically motivated. Their attacks aim to have an impact on the war in Gaza. Their location along a major sea lane of communication in the Red Sea gives them an asymmetrical advantage when it comes to attacking commercial shipping.
No much infrastructure required to launch drones.
The C&C structure is probably well known by those who “need to know”. It’s just the political resolve to take them out.
Great. Our diesel and petrol prices have just dropped to their lowest level for 2 years so I guess that they will be on their way back up again.
Good article - no paywall.
As of Wednesday, there were no details available on what Operation Prosperity Guardian will do beyond expanded patrols, or how long it will take for escorted convoys to be put in place, if at all.
“Officials have played down the idea that they will provide naval escorts for commercial vessels,” said ship brokerage Braemar on Tuesday.
The cost of shipping raw materials or finished products via maritime routes might be affected by decisions made months or years earlier, such as long-term contracts, fuel pricing agreements, or investments in shipping infrastructure. The maritime industry often operates on extended timelines due to the nature of shipping contracts and the time it takes for vessels to move across oceans. Therefore, pricing dynamics in the maritime sector may not always align with immediate events but could be linked to earlier decisions and circumstances.
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Doesn’t this mean that shipping companies are going to make a lot more money transporting cargo over a much longer route?
Shippers will pay more, but just pass the cost along to businesses who will pass the cost on to consumers.
Ocean freight is a small portion of the cost of consumer goods. Most of the markup is at the the retail level.
That might take awhile. Existing long term contracts will/would have to be renegotiated, which big players like Walmart and Home Depot may only do after litigation. For the energy side I’m sure this is much easier.
Here’s the CFR for war risk insurance.
https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-46/chapter-II/subchapter-G/part-308
I’d think most Asia to Europe long term shipping contracts would have provisions about war risk, canal disruptions, fuel surcharges, etc etc.
I don’t know how many voyages a year that large container ships can make between Asia and Europe? Maybe 6? Probably that will be reduced to 5 voyages via Cape of Good Hope?
More ships (and more containers) will be needed to carry the same number of containers per year.
Spot Asia to Europe container rates will probably double.
I think the Houthi closure of Bab el Mendab is going to be a huge windfall for shipping.
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How will the Houthi risk at Bab el Mendeb affect the dark fleet of tankers carrying Russian oil to China and India?
Will the US Navy be protecting the sanction busting dark fleet carrying Russian oil through Bab el Mendeb?
Everyone turns off their AIS, makes it a bit more of a
Lottery /shell game
No, but you do need a drone supplier. This situation is giving me 1988 kinda vibes.
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The combined market capitalization of the world’s largest publicly traded shipping companies has jumped by about $22 billion since Dec. 12, when the assaults really ramped up.
Longer routes means more vessels required for the same amount of cargo which pushes up rates.
you are so right they can be launched without much infrastructure and are quite Mobil.
shooting down 20 K drones with million dollar missiles is not sustainable, but biden will do nothing more aggressive which needs to happen. shock and awe should happen but like Ukraine the rest of the countries dont want to get involved
Some reverberations, change of bunkering and supply ports.
Denmark’s Maersk said Thursday that it will impose a Transit Disruption Surcharge (TDS) immediately on 27 trade routes and an Emergency Contingency Surcharge (ECS) on those same routes from the new year, citing “risks, delays and difficulties” in sailing through the Red Sea.
For example, the cost of transporting a standard 20-foot container from North America to the Middle East will rise by $1,000 in total on January 1, the company said, because of a TDS of $200 and an ECS of $800.
“Mayor Pete” is in way over his head. A political appointment chosen because he “checked certain boxes”. Even though he was “in the Navy”, I seriously doubt he had any experience with the conditions faced by actually being “on the water”. He was a “push button officer”, instant commission with no training like an Academy or OCS officer would go through. Another case where the “military” should be allowed to run the military and not a civilian with an office in DC. How much damage or how many lives will be lost before this becomes evident?
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Um, yeah…
Secretary of Transportation doesn’t run the military so no worries there.
All Secretaries are political appointments, that’s the idea.
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