Red Sea Shipping Crisis:

What does the Secretary of Transportation have to do with hostilities in the Red Sea? He’s not calling any shots over there pal.

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I’m sure the dark fleet is not affected at all as Iran would probably instruct the Houthis to act in their self interest.

FWIW these sanctioned oil tankers are not just going to China, they are going all over the world including India and Saudi Arabia, who refine the crude and sells product to Europe and the USA.

You never know where they might turn up.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-naval-station-norfolk-hosts-tanker-with-russian-oil-products-bypassing-embargo/ar-AA1lal7K

He’s in charge of the US Merchant Marine, MARAD issues alerts to shipping and is the liaison between the military and shipping companies.

He’s the one who’s supposed to be in charge of this.

Just because nobody has done their job properly in DOT for the last two decades doesn’t mean he get’s to shirk responsibility.

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You wanted to combat helis full of guys with rifles with a little buckshot so I don’t think I can take you seriously. They would’ve splattered those old mushy brains of yours across the deck.

the fact that i annoy you gives me a great deal of satisfaction.

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Glad you are still having fun :kissing_heart:

This just goes to show that everything government does is an ineffective half measure.

I think while you are mostly right on this front the government sometimes means to do exactly what it does and uses incompetency as a cover.

The US is happy to stop shipping through the red sea as this puts pressure on Egypt whom we really want to play ball and can pressure by stopping suez transits.

The West wants Egypt to do two things, take Gaza refugees and to NOT join BRICS.

The West bumbling around helps achieve this, meanwhile BRICS likes it because our perceived power drops, a trade we are willing to make to pressure Egypt.

Meanwhile Egypt favors BRICS less since BRICS support these attacks that destroy their primary revenue stream.

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I received this by email a couple of days ago:-

Below is an overview issued less than 7 days ago by a leading yacht War insurer, in conjunction with the Joint Hull War Committee* (JHWC).

“The executive summary is that while there has been an increase in the frequency of attacks on shipping in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over the last few weeks, the severity and overall background risk landscape has not moved greatly. US, Gulf States, and EU naval forces are well represented. H&M war risks have been on a per-voyage application basis for many years.

The eye-catching recent news has been the taking of the car carrier, Galaxy Leader, on 26 November, which is Israeli-owned, making good on Houthi threats to target Israel-linked shipping until the conflict in Gaza stops. Over the weekend we saw a volley of rocket or missile attacks against commercial shipping. Two ships were hit, sustaining only minor damage, while a third was boarded by armed raiders.

The lack of material damage to the cargo vessels supports the view that the Houthis lack the military materiel to inflict serious harm, but that does not understate the risk of injury or loss of life among the crews of ships in transit. The vessel that was boarded was in fact attacked by Somali pirates, a reminder of the more persistent and dominant risk in the area.

Most concerning is the risk of wider regional overspill. This is unlikely in the Red Sea, where the Houthis are isolated agitators. We continue to look for indications that Iran could start more overt escalation of attacks in the Arabian Gulf, as these would be more readily attributable to Tehran, demanding a military response from the US and the Gulf States.

As per above with growing escalations we are seeing increases in breach pricing which is ramping up significantly.”

To illustrate the fast-moving situation, a few days after the above text was issued, the US and other nations announced the formation of a joint task force to defend shipping from further Houthi attacks. 24 hours later the Houthi response was to announce their intention to step up attacks. On 19th December the JHWC issued a new War excluded areas list, as below.

The waters enclosed by the following boundaries:

a) on the northwest, by the Red Sea, south of Latitude 18°N

b) on the northeast, from the Yemen border at 16°38.5’N, 53°6.5’E to high seas point 14°55’N, 53°50’E

c) on the east, by a line from high seas point 14°55’N, 53°50’E to high seas point 10°48’N, 60°15’E, thence to high seas point 6°45’S, 48°45’E

d) and on the southwest, by the Somalia border at 1°40’S, 41°34’E, to high seas point 6°45’S, 48°45’E
excepting coastal waters of adjoining territories up to 12 nautical miles offshore unless otherwise provided.

Some military analysts in the media have computed the costs of each counter-missile launch by the warships concerned, and are predicting that economic and logistical realities may change the dynamics of the situation. Which means that the coalition would switch from defensive mode to attack mode, and strike the Houthi launch sites. Such escalation will be further unwelcome news for all yachting activities in Red Sea and Gulf waters.

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UKMTO.org is good for updates. See also the latest MSC chart Q6099 link …
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/images/qcharts/q6099.pdf?la=en-gb

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This is probably the most coherent and accurate thought I’ve seen on gcaptain, this is a really good point. I appreciate you.

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Thats very kind to say. I’d add that the West can use this disruption in trade to also help swing war support towards Israel on the international stage

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Anyone know merchant mariners that have been fired upon in the Med? I’m sure it’s not just a Red Sea issue.

With the ability to look up virtually any commercial ship, it’s not difficult to find out who is shipping supplies to whom. I’m sure a lot of merchant mariners are being put in harms way. While Maersk and BP have chosen to limit there exposure, others are continuing to sail in known conflict areas.

One of the OSG tankers got missiles shot at it in Israel… but the iron dome shot them down

It happened to OSG tankers in Ashkalon years ago as well.

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I’d heard stories of them hanging tarps over the OSG stack markings before I was there (ca. 2007). I’d imagine that they are among the juicer targets.

No, the Navy protects the Merchant Marine, not the other way around. MARAD has no effective force projection on the other side of the planet what with its 800 employees and $900M budget. Buttigieg is not in charge of this operation. That’s just silly.

I never said he was in charge.

His job is to support naval operations, not run them

Buttigieg was a DEI appointment. He showed his mettle when he elected to go on holiday to play nursemaid while the supply chain unraveled.

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