I am worried about all the vessels in Fourchon obviously off charter. With the oil prices dropping and all the new builds it kinda frightening. There has to be some major layoffs coming every where.
[QUOTE=oldpro;148955]I am worried about all the vessels in Fourchon obviously off charter. With the oil prices dropping and all the new builds it kinda frightening. There has to be some major layoffs coming every where.[/QUOTE]
The sky is falling! Think they will just raft those vessels together, send everyone home and let them drift in the GOM?
Doubt anyone will be getting laid off anytime soon. Probably see the herd getting thinned by firing the useless and/or incompetent. The GOM is a different animal, it ain’t under the same sky as the on land fracking bunch (they going to be out of work in droves soon), or other areas of the world that have higher costs for drilling.
So please don’t run naked and panicked around Fourchon…
Bakken is still very busy. Several articles suggest that about 80% of the Bakken wells will still be profitable at $40/bbl. Bakken is growing production at a rate of about 1 million barrels per year. Articles suggest that production growth may slow to 400,000 bbl/year due to lower oil prices. They say that because of contracts in place and work in progress that it will take six months for drilling to wind down after a price collapse. It will take several years for production to drop off as wells play out. The thing about drilling at Bakken is that it is low risk, they don’t have many dry holes.
Offshore is still high risk, high cost, and takes years to get into production. For the biggest companies that can afford it, this is going to be a good time to explore offshore with less competition at lower costs. The price of oil will be back up by the time new offshore discoveries get into production.
The biggest companies with the biggest and newest rigs and boats will still be working – at much lower days rates. Many smaller companies with older and smaller equipment will go under. Jobs are going to be harder to find and pay less.
Anybody who has been working down here for a long time knows about the ups and downs. This is why we have constantly told all the new people coming in to save all that big money. I never get myself in a spot where I can’t live comfortably on at least half my current day rate. I’ve been through three of these slow downs and it does suck but the sky isn’t falling yet. Everyone needs to slow down and take a deep breathe. Increased random drug testing is coming for sure but that’s not a bad thing. The herd is prolly gonna get thinned out as well. This ain’t a bad thing either I’m sure every company has guys just showing up to eat groceries and collect a check.
You have to really read into this stuff, as tugsailor and others have to have an informed opinion. One thing about land based drilling is that they are a little more agile (in my opinion) than offshore. They can cut costs better and adapt to a changing industry more efficiently (once again, my opinion). They’re not locked into big money contracts that take time to mobilize/demob (drillships, semis, mudboats, subsea engineering, acoustic surveys). They can literally pack up and move a few miles, or trim the fat…support of a land rig must be a fraction of what it is offshore. Sure you have tons of vendors but they can just roll up in a truck; no need to truck it to FOOSHON, load it on a boat, steam ??? whatever hours, discharge etc. On land you can just eliminate a shift here and there, not something you can really do offshore.
How likely is it that your oil major goes to mudboat Co and says ok, well you have 20 boats on charter for big money. and you have 20 sitting at the dock not doing shit. We will put the other boats to work, but you have to give us a deal on the others already working. That’s my prediction on how charter day rates will really drop. I hate to say it but if wages drop they now have the perfect explanation. I hope that’s not the case as wages really do effect each-other throughout the industry. Likely scenario is that you eliminate all the idiots, slackers, troublemakers; as others have said.
I think offshore will feel the pinch more, in the long term, even if prices rebound. They will sit around and see how goddamn expensive it was to poke holes in the ground offshore vs. on land. Political issues on land hinder it and will probably continue to do so, but if oil’s half priced, its a hell of an argument. Fat will have to be cut but it seems that oil companies are mentally preparing for $40 oil and will be able to deal with it, however I think $40 won’t happen- if it does it will only be to see how low it can go. I’m not financier but think it will stabilize in the low 60’s if not high 50’s. Its unfortunate if you look at the long-term prices, but then again that’s when we all started making decent $ too. Also, If there are some “bounces” in the price, such as yesterday, I don’t think that will signal a recovery anytime soon. Bounces are expected…
I wonder how much otherwise decent performing mutual funds have been held back by sharp declines in drilling stocks?
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/oil-rigs-idUSL3N0TI2Q520141201
[FONT=georgia]* Warm stack enquiries have increased - Kim Heng
[/FONT]* Rig day rates fall, supply to grow
- Oil prices hit five-year lows
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Offshore drillers globally are increasingly considering “warm stacking” their rigs to take them temporarily off the market, as they gear up for a slowdown in the hunt for oil with crude prices sliding to five-year lows.
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Rigs in warm stack maintain basic operations and most of the crew, and can be put to use once the owner gets a contract. Drillers put rigs in warm stacks to lower operational costs and also to keep them sufficiently ready for quick deployment, meaning they are hopeful a downturn won’t be a prolonged one.
Rigs can also be “cold stacked”, or shut down, which typically happens when an owner does not expect to find work for an extended period of time.
Oil prices have fallen about 40 percent in the past six months, with international benchmark Brent dropping below $68 to a five-year trough and nearing the marginal production cost of the most expensive offshore projects.
“Six months ago, no one talked about stacking rigs,” said Thomas Tan, chief executive officer at Kim Heng Offshore & Marine Holdings Ltd, a Singapore-based oilfield service firm, “In the last few weeks, things have become scarier and the talk of stacking started.”
Tan said his firm has received enquiries to stack dozens of rigs over the past few weeks. Kim Heng currently services four rigs in warm stack around Singapore. The company serves about 60 rigs a year in different stage of operations, including providing repair, maintenance and logistics services.
“A lot of people are looking at warm stack, as they hope that the market will turn around quickly,” Tan said. “Cold stack is on their mind… but they haven’t given up hope yet.”
Seadrill Ltd, the world’s largest driller by market value until recently, expects to see a pickup in stacking and scrapping next year, its CEO said. And Transocean Ltd , which owns the world’s largest offshore drilling rig fleet, said it may retire additional rigs because of a sluggish market.
Transocean and Seadrill are among Kim Heng’s customers.
RATES FALL, SUPPLY GROWS
Drillers, who provide rigs on hire to oil producers, are in a pinch because day rates to hire rigs have fallen this year while supply grows.
The day rate for a top specification drillship, which can work in water up to 12,000 feet (3,658 metres) deep, was recently quoted at as low as $400,000, down from $600,000 last year. Even rates for jack-up rigs, generally working in water depth below 400 feet, have started to weaken in recent months after holding up relatively well earlier in the year.
Rig orders soared in recent years when oil prices topped $100 per barrel, making it more profitable to explore in hard-to-reach underwater areas. The global fleet of jackup rigs is forecast to grow 9 percent in 2015 and another 7 percent in 2016, Oslo-based investment bank Pareto Securities estimated.
Pareto also expected the number of jackups and floaters - drillships and semi-submersibles - in warm and cold stack to each reach 100 in the next 12-18 months from 60 and 53 now.
The marginal cost of producing one new barrel of oil varies, ranging from as cheap as $10 for Middle East onshore, to $60 in deepwater offshore, and above $70 in U.S. shale oil, according to a Reuters survey in September.
Some producers have announced spending cutbacks.
Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd said it will cut next year’s capital spending by 15-20 percent.
That’s the kind of bad news the drilling industry is trying to get a handle on.
“What we are seeing now is that people are just standing back and waiting to understand the dynamics of the market before making decisions,” said Jason Waldie, Associate Director at energy consultancy Douglas Westwood. (Editing by Emily Kaiser and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
ECO planning cut backs. No working over effective now, $100 a day cut for officers $25 for everyone else coming soon. Boats not working will be trimmed back to COI no 2nd-5th Captains and assistant engineers who are living the dream on facebook watch. They are also weighing in on equal time 28/28 schedules. Good luck
So you’re saying all I needed to do to get even time at ECO was drive the price of oil down?
Well fuck!
[QUOTE=Traitor Yankee;148966]So you’re saying all I needed to do to get even time at ECO was drive the price of oil down?
Well fuck![/QUOTE]
Well you could find someone that wants to go equal time. However if both of you are worth a dime no one will ever approve the transfer (been there done that). The latest and greatest excuse was we cannot find anyone qualified to take your place. Sound familiar? Moral of the story be a fuck up and a squeaky wheel and you will probably get what you want. Do your job and you will be rewarded with more work.
[QUOTE=T-bobo;148962]ECO planning cut backs. No working over effective now, $100 a day cut for officers $25 for everyone else coming soon. Boats not working will be trimmed back to COI no 2nd-5th Captains and assistant engineers who are living the dream on facebook watch. They are also weighing in on equal time 28/28 schedules. Good luck[/QUOTE]Is this based in fact? Or just speculation? $100/day is a big cut. Really want to know if the biggest boat company is about to push the first domino…
Yeah I quit, solved that even time not being available problem pretty quick.
The first domino was pushed by Seacor 5 weeks ago. The real irony is how they convince employees that Seacor does not laid off when things are slow. I was fool enough to believe them.
In what world did you belive Seacor dosent layoff? This is the 3rd or 4th one they have done that I know about.
At this point Chouest and Harvy are the only ones I know that haven’t ever done layoffs. One just waits for you make the slightest mistake if they don’t like you then fires you and the other hasn’t been around long enough to really know.
The only thing I can say about Seacor is that they have never cut pay, but tommorow is new day and who knows what will happen.
[QUOTE=Tcaptain;148974]The first domino was pushed by Seacor 5 weeks ago. The real irony is how they convince employees that Seacor does not laid off when things are slow. I was fool enough to believe them.[/QUOTE]
Were those lay offs from boats requiring 1600T license?
[QUOTE=Johnny Canal;148972]Is this based in fact? Or just speculation? $100/day is a big cut. Really want to know if the biggest boat company is about to push the first domino…[/QUOTE] The layoff rumor and the raise rumor… both at the same time! Awesome.
I am guessing speculation or this forum would light up like a xmas tree.
True but they will put a skeleton crew on. So I do think people will be laid-off. I got laid-off from Kevin gros after only being there three months. Stacked the boat I was on. It’s coming…
[QUOTE=Traitor Yankee;148973]Yeah I quit, solved that even time not being available problem pretty quick.[/QUOTE]
I had to quit ECO to get equal time also. They do buy me back every now and then. I’m on rigs now plugging and abandoning all these old wells, all equal time schedule some oil companies won’t let you work past 21 days in the GOM. They still treat the marine crew like boat trash but the pay and bonuses are good.
[QUOTE=Sharkbite;148998]True but they will put a skeleton crew on. So I do think people will be laid-off. I got laid-off from Kevin gros after only being there three months. Stacked the boat I was on. It’s coming…[/QUOTE]
Im curious to see if Harvey Gulf will fall apart as everyone is theorizing (if that’s a word). All of the debt they have has to be taking a toll at this point.
Maybe port Fourchon is packed because in the last 2-3 years ECO built over a dozen 299’s, 5 312’s (so far), a crane boat, several 200’ crew boats and has two foreign boats at the dock. Add that to the boats GOL built and sold to Harvey and what Harvey themselves built. Now let’s talk about the HOS MAX boats Hornbeck launched. How many 310’s and 320’s so far? Don’t forget they brought several out of stack, stretched them and made them DP 2.
That’s just the top 3 companies. Factor in Bordelon building, Jackson Offshore, ect, ect. And don’t leave out the 100 ton operators. Adriatic went from a five boat company to about 20+ in that time. 5 were acquired, but many were 190’s they built.
How much bigger has Fourchon gotten to accommodate this in that same time you ask…well, they have STARTED slip C…but yeah, crowding MUST mean we are all off contract…
Funny how when I say this at work people look at me like I’ve gone batty…
[QUOTE=oldpro;148955]I am worried about all the vessels in Fourchon obviously off charter. With the oil prices dropping and all the new builds it kinda frightening. There has to be some major layoffs coming every where.[/QUOTE]
A lot of boats get laid off in the winter time as many construction/maintenance jobs come to end. All the new builds that are coming out require companies to hire new crews which in turn means more jobs. Some of the big players wont build new boats unless they have contracts signed for them that are already in place. Companies that are laying off, are because they have to cut costs for the winter months when work is slow, happens every year and sometimes its worse then others.