Someone in another thread was wondering why people were saying the country had problems and he posted that he didn’t seem to have “problems”. One thing he didn’t mention made me think “His wife does the grocery shopping and he must not drive or buy gas”. 
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Every 4-8 years someone puts the ship of state on the starboard tack. 4-8 years later someone puts her on the port tack. It does matter much, the ship of state is very slow to turn, and the base course does not change much. The ship of state zig zags in more of less the same direction.
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That is the hope.
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Unfortunately the rudder has been seriously damaged by an extreme turn to starboard. The helm control software has been so corrupted that a simple update will not repair it.
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Kevin Drum is good on economic stats.
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Drum is pretty good.
But it’s like the lag of the seasons. The Improved statistics take awhile (often a long while) to change how people feel.
I read another explanation somewhere that made sense to me, the “what have you done for me larely” syndrome:
Biden flooded the poor and working class, and small business people with free money during Covid. A lot of people were getting twice as much in state and federal unemployment than they had ever earned in wages. People became dependent on this free money without the burden of working, then Biden ended those programs too quickly, which shocked people back into the reality of work and/or poverty.
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Is “too far right” any worse than “too far left”? Honest, sincere question. Consider “1984”. The “Inner Party, the Outer Party”, and the “Proles”.
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I’m thinking (And now I done got a headache) that the “effects” of inflation were not immediate. Inflation “happened” and eventually people stopped to think "what in the heck is going on. Last year ****** costs $X.00 and now it costs $X0.00. I just know my social security raises vanished like smoke when inflation went over and above my raises. Fortunately, I had the foresight to have several retirement plans, including 401K and a profit sharing plan I had rolled over into a retirement account. But even those were hurt. I just think about people who only had SS. They are bound to be hurting. Nuff said.
Recent inflation was world-wide, not just the U.S.
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When the US catches a cold most of the rest of the World gets pneumonia.
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If you study how most of the electorate get their information you’ll find the answer. Most young get their information from social media because who watches TV any more much less read newspapers. The rest of us luddites can choose, if we wish to, silo our information sources so as to not to be upset by anything that may disagree with our thinking, right or wrong. Providing information is a huge money making business and keeping people angry keeps them tuning in. Also, people are lazy. They won’t do the research to tell them if what they are hearing is BS or not.
This not a US phenomena but is happening all over the world. Those that control the internet can control the world and they will. AI just speeds up the process.
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Those folks and majority of people who have no savings or investments will be the first victims of their vote for those who will work hardest to cut social security and eliminate what little health care protection they might have.
Stupid people seldom understand what they are asking for. Who will they blame?
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Yes. A world wide phenomenon brought on by the pandemic.
In the U.S., inflation came in slightly higher than in other developed countries. However:
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GDP and GDP growth much higher in the US.;
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unemployment came in much lower;
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job creation much higher;
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general prosperity was higher.
Inflation is now in the 2.5% range IIRC. This number is within shouting distance of the Fed’s stated goal of 2%. The U.S. economy has been performing well, so what is the problem? Prices. Higher prices from the residual effects of inflation.
Voters generally lack the sophistication to parse these kinds of details. Amateur economists don’t reach rational conclusions. The analysis came down to this: I paid less when the former guy was in office, I want the former guy. This election turned on the perception that high prices were the fault of the current administration and they were punished for it.
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This is true but also there is thinking among young people both native and recent immigrants that they might not be able to advance their economic status beyond that of their parents. The college educated seem unwilling to take lower paying jobs before they advance. Those without a college education seem to be not interested in learning trades which can lead to more money that the college educated can make. I have had trouble finding people that can comprehend basic principles of how air conditioning works. I have associates who have trouble finding people who understand how to size a proper plumbing system and very few are willing to put in the effort to educate themselves even though they could get 6 figures incomes if they got their shit together. So why? My brother needed a heat pump replaced. He bought from a local HVAC contractor and asked me to oversee the final installation. I did so and none of the workers spoke English as a first language. They got the job done OK. I asked the owner why he hired illegals and he said locals won’t work. I asked how much he paid the Mexican guys and he said I pay by the install works out to be about $10/hour. Nice. Put the employers in jail and the illegal immigrant stops but neither party ever mentions that so nothing will change. The oligarchs in the construction, meat packing and other industries need these guys
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I just know it hurts US. I feel for other countries, but it’s “we, the people” I worry about, especially my children and grandchildren.
I was in Valparaiso, Chile in 1971. I exchanged dollars for escudos. I got back to the States and realized I still had a 200 escudo bill I forgot to exchange. Took it to the bank and was told there was no way they could exchange. Chile’s economy was in such a mess and inflation was so high, a 200 escudo bill was pretty much worthless. The value pretty much changed on a daily basis.
The Biden’s years were not all butterflies and roses. You know that right? You may want things to be looked upon by everyone like this because Trump is a narcissistic bully, but they’re not.
Inflation- it is up 20.1% over Biden’s first 45 months compared to Trumps 7.5% over the same period. Source: Federal consumer price index. That equates to 5.4% annualized inflation rate for Biden vs-1.7 for Trump.
Job Market- Employment is up 12% and pay is up 19% since Biden took office. At Trumps presidency at this juncture Unemployment dropped from 4.7% to 3.5% and that was during a bullish economy before the pandemic. 3.5% was the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. Wages grew 15%, outpacing inflation and he didn’t have an asterisk of the bounce back from the pandemic. Source: US Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
Stocks- The S&P 500 index has posted an annualized return of 12.6% since Biden and Harris took office in 2021, compared to 16.3% under Trump.
Source: Kiplinger’s
Consumer Health: Consumer sentiment was lower last month than it ever was under Trump. September’s 4.6% personal savings rate, which measures the percentage of Americans’ income left over after expenses and taxes, was two-thirds of September 2019’s 7%. The savings rate never fell below 5% under Trump.
Source: University of Michigan Health Survey
Gas Prices- The average cost of a gallon of gasoline dipped from $2.37 to $2.28 from Dec. 2016 to 2020, gas prices rose to an all-time high of over $5 per gallon in 2022.
Source- US Energy Information Administration
I can post Immigration numbers, mortgage rates and crime statistics later but lunch is over and we’re going through the Panama Canal in a couple hours.
Harris didn’t lose because we are racists, misogynists or we don’t accept gays. She lost because she was a poor choice of a candidate.
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Nice, but who is going to do the work then?
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I remember about 25 years ago, the Border Patrol came to Dutch Harbor and started checking paperwork. Planeloads of people had to leave, including our very talented head cook, but we wound up hiring others who held the proper paperwork. The company did a better job of making sure that potential employees were properly documented. I think those replacements also wound up making more money.
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It’s later…
Mortgage rates- They have hit a 22 year high of 7.22% in May of this year. Rates were 3.87% when Trump took office and were 2.77% when Biden got in. A 500,00.00 home with 20% down would have cost 2.032.00/mo under Trump vs- 3.116.00/mo with Biden’s economy. So much for the American dream.
Source- The Fed (for the interest rates), Bankrate for the mortgage payments.
Crime-The FBI had been collecting crime statistics for more than 100 years. In 2020 almost every law enforcement agency in the country was included in the database. Data collected included reporting crime numbers on 70% of the US population. In 2021 the FBI switched from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, to the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS). 7,000 of the nations 18,000 law enforcement agencies have not reported crime statistics since as the new system is voluntary. These agencies include many cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC as well as the majority of police agencies in CA, NY, IL, PA, MD and FL. They’re working the crime statistics like tengineer is working the sleeve in his bunker reporting.
Source- Forbes
Immigration- Encounters at the Border were 10,825,387 from 2021-2024. That number includes a staggering 2,901,142 since January 2024 alone. Trumps were 526,901, 683,178, 1,148,024 and 646,822 for 2017-2020 or 1,794,846 total. Source: DHS. Fentanyl seizures are up 1,900% between 2020 and 2023. Deaths went from just over 56k to an estimated 110k so far in 2024.
I’ve got guys on here making 160k plus that can’t afford to buy a home. How do you think the rest of the 25-30 year olds are feeling? These are the fucking kids you talk about watching Tik Tok and getting their news from social media. Those lower income households who Democrats constantly supposedly champion? Food, gas, rent, clothes? You think they’re not feeling the hikes?
Democrats and the media like to blame the election loss on messaging, Harris coming late to the party and people not knowing who she is. On here ,you blame it on the uninformed right fringe, kids on Tik Tok, disenfranchised old white guys and their ignorant, uneducated ways… You guys are all spouting off that those who voted for Trump are idiots, who have no idea what they voted for. How about America just isn’t feeling it? How about we don’t want left wing nutcases jamming shit down our throats and calling us extremists if we just want to stay out of the craziness. How about we want to support cops and don’t want to see them gunned down because of your leadership’s identity politics? You don’t like the way the election went? Get a better candidate who will actually answer a question about things people really want to know before they get their vote. You’re just as much at fault in this as anyone. Just like us, if you don’t change, nothing will change.
Source: Me. Just some old racist White guy who generally lack(s) the sophistication to parse these kinds of details.
It’s going to be ok. Stay safe.
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