Thank you, knew something was wrong with the sentence, but couldn’t figure it out.
Storm Surge:
The maximum potential storm surge for a particular location depends on a number of different factors. Storm surge is a very complex phenomenon because it is sensitive to the slightest changes in storm intensity, forward speed, size (radius of maximum winds-RMW), angle of approach to the coast, central pressure (minimal contribution in comparison to the wind), and the shape and characteristics of coastal features such as bays and estuaries.
I agree that it’s somewhat complicated to calculate, but I find it odd ALL sources missed it by 7-10’
I would certainly expect the prognosticators to miss on the high side for safety sake… but again, they weren’t even close.
It does seem like storm surge predictions are more difficult to predict than wind speed. I was in the Houston turning basin when the eye of Hurricane Ike passed overhead.
The forecast was 5 feet. It turned out to be over 20.
One of my points on the post in regards to the magnitude of the storm. Knowing the path after turning north off Florida and essentially paralleling the coat up to just south of Hatteras, I thought the storm surge forecasts were WAY to high…that’s the hype I don’t like. Just tell us the facts, which we (us mariners are acutely aware of) that storm surge will be minimal due to the location of the eye being offshore coupled with its direction.
I lived in beautiful Beaufort by the sea, 26 miles from Yemassee for several years and have a good friend I grew up with who lives on Fripp. He said the same thing, not much wind and a few scattered trees down.
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In Kitty Hawk, the storm surge on the sound side was minimal and never breached the private canal bulkheads. Wind speed was 90 mph and several trees were uprooted.
What happened to the Bahamas can and will eventually happen to somewhere in the US. I think we can all agree that we never want to see that happen to anyone, anywhere.
You can love or hate the media and government but after Katrina it was readily apparent to me that they are playing by new rules. Scare the living shit out of everyone and prognosticate a storm of biblical proportions so when a big one actually lands, they can say they told you so. When it’s a near miss, it’s a near miss. Let’s all be happy it wasn’t what happened to Abaco and donate something to help those unfortunate people who’s homes look like a fleet of bulldozers rolled across their island.
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Yes , Abacos got blasted. I’ve never seen a Cat5 stall over land like that. I am hopefull that some of the American shipping companies will begin sending supplies and equip over to the islands.
Katrina was bad , but that wbole situation was a result of complete Gov corruption … Local,State and to some extent Federal. The mayor should not have been the only official incarcerated.
Nut that’s a discussion for it’s own thread.
I think we should all be cautious of what the national news media is feeding us. If it looks like a duck , walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
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Damn Yankee, you nailed it!!!
Was that gusts or a sustained 90 mph?
Got a buddy that lives up the road from you in Coinjock, he said the same thing in regards to the flooding.
Sustained. I live on an island on the sound side but outsiders are not likely to know it so I used Kitty Hawk which is a more well known place. On the ocean side, half of Nags Head and Avalon piers were washed away. We got hit by the left half so predominantely north winds. Ocracoke to the south got slammed hard because the eye wall passed over them so they got the double whammy, east and west winds.
In regard to your comments that this didn’t feel like a hurricane. I’m sure it didn’t feel like much when the eye was offshore but where it made landfall it definitely felt like one.
Some care with using terms is warranted here because for example “media” and “governments” are very different entities. The media and governments face very different incentives with regards to weather information.
The media is in part at least driven by profits, it seeks ratings, views and clicks and the like.
On the other hand various government entities either produce weather information (NWS/NHC) or they are consumers of weather info (ie local governments).
The NWS/NHC cannot simply jack-up the forecasts to avoid blame because government entities that depend on weather information could then just pass the blame for poor decision making back onto the NHC. If local governments can’t take the info at face value they might feel they have to derate the forecasts so to speak.
The problem faced by government entities (local, state governments etc) is that they cannot simple order evacuations out of an abundance of caution or to be on the safe side because of the high costs of evacuation (including reputation costs, the boy who cried wolf).
With regards to the NWS/NHC it is definitely in their interest to put out the most accurate forecasts possible least people start to adjust for perceived bias.
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Any idea how Colington Harbor made out? I have friends back there.
That’s where I live. I may know some of them, it’s a small tight knit community. Downed trees, a handful of which fell on houses or across roads, lots of debris, branches and roof shingles (some from my own roof), flooded roadways, power poles on the Nagshead side of the Hwy 64 causeway all lying down broken like matchsticks, power out, traffic lights out. If you know the area, you know the bulkheads top the water by only a few feet. I wasn’t concerned about the wind as much as the flooding with this one. The level changed but I was very surprised the canals didn’t flood. We’ve had smaller storms bring water into the ground floor mudroom and workshop (8 foot elevation) with me standing in knee-deep water on the dock manning the lines.
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Dorian made it to Halifax, eh.
https://news.yahoo.com/dorian-hits-canadas-atlantic-coast-093300267.html#
You should be able see the actual water levels at the tide station nearest to you.
We saw some rain and maybe half an hour of 25 kts gust here in Maine. Here is the water levels at the Portland station:
I have my own tide station in the back yard on the sound side which is the area I’m concerned with as that is where my boat is normally moored:
Peaceful today. The canal system is navigable to the ocean via Oregon Inlet but has a water level pattern all its own, more wind driven than tidal.
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It’s not always a Florida man…
Kill Devil Hills Police, Fire and Ocean Rescue responded to a call at approximately 2:30 p.m. for a vehicle being swept into the ocean and the driver trapped in the vehicle. The police said the passenger was able to get out, however the driver was still in the vehicle. Officers arrived on scene and were able to get the driver out of the pickup. The driver was identified as Troy J. Topash, 41, of Kill Devil Hills. Upon further investigation, Mr. Topash was determined to be impaired and was arrested.
Looks like you found yourself a sweet spot. I’m envious of dock access.
WRT the op however if trying to determine how accurate the surge forecasts are I think the best place to look is at the tide gauge data. Both the tidal forecast and actually sea level is shown on a graph, the water level rise from non-tidal effects at any station on the coast can easily be seen.
Soundside:
Atlantic side:
I couldn’t download the graphs displaying the levels as yours did.