American politics

Scroll down to the Joe Biden interview with Anderson Cooper and Jack Tapper. The looks on their faces say it all. Does the democratic party truly believe that this man can beat Trump and lead the nation?!?

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-stumbles-televised-interview-coronavirus-192859533.html

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What is your expertise here and what credentials do you have to judge this matter? How do you know this is not a result of Biden’s speech impediment?

The DOJ and FBI were considered to be independent at that time, not under the control of the administration.

If the DOJ and FBI were under the control of the administration why was the investigation into Clinton’s emails publicly announced just before the election but the FBI was silent with regards to the counter-intelligence investigation into the Trump campaign? One would think it would be the other way around?

It’s a simple question. A simple yes or no would do.

This question? How am I even remotely qualified to answer It?

The question wasn’t meant to start a pissing contest but it’s OK. Your reaction to it speaks volumes.

It’s an easy question to answer—yes the Democratic Party does believe it, they voted overwhelmingly to make him the candidate. And yes, a great deal of the American electorate believe it, since Biden is beating Trump in the polls.

November will settle the question, and since spreading stupid propaganda videos is the latest Hillary Clinton was stumbling into a van effort let’s see how that plays out.

But it’s a remarkable amount of self-deception that Trump followers would attempt to make dementia an issue given how brazenly impaired Trump routinely shows himself to be. And if his supporters can look at the two prospective Administrations on the ballot in November, and say, “you can’t give power to the same folks who gave eight years of prosperity (by all the objective measures they would have used six months ago, pre-virus), successful handling of pandemics vice forty thousand dead and counting, and a full confirmed cabinet versus the inability to find even nominees—-we gotta stay the course!” They should consult dementia specialists themselves.

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Thank you for expressing your opinion with a straight answer. Even though the last bit was superfluous.

That clip is an example of cherry picking from the National Review. Not an organization known for quality reporting. I didn’t see any cringing faces, and I have seen a lot of those two on CNN lately.

I can’t speak for the Democratic Party, but I can tell you that if the Trumplicans are hanging their collective hats on a cognitive matchup with Joe Biden, it’s going to be a very crappy Christmas for them.

The Democrats are worried about three things: 1) Trump’s massive war chest and their own ability to compete moneywise; 2) voter suppression; 3) voter turnout.

Nobody is worried about a shortcoming in IQ, knowledge, cognitive decline, or experience.

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It’s safe to assume that the Democratic Party hopes they can beat Trump. What they believe I don’t know. It’s a good bet a massive disinformation campaign is headed our way.

Either way the pros likely think in terms of probabilities rather than beliefs.

The National Review has their moments. From March 19 National Review article “Washington’s Response to the Corona Virus”

"The Trump administration has never been prepared for crisis decision-making of this sort. Warning signs about that lack of preparation have been abundant from the start. The staffing structure around the president has always been too flat and chaotic. Crucial positions throughout the chain of command have remained vacant or filled by temporary appointees. In key moments, senior officials have ignored clear instructions from the president in an ad hoc way when they have judged them inappropriate — perhaps averting some disasters (as the Mueller report made clear) but undermining confidence in the decision-making process at the highest levels of our government. Advisers resist offering bad news, contrary views, or criticism to the president, knowing they would be ignored or worse. And Trump’s own inexperience and blinding narcissism have left him unwilling or unable to do better.

This decisional dysfunction has had some bad consequences. But not until this crisis has it become truly dangerous. The president seems still not to have come to terms with the mistakes involved in the administration’s mishandling of the testing challenge, and the White House now seems unprepared to learn, adapt, and lead as America contemplates the prospect that hospitals and health systems around the country could soon be overwhelmed by intensive-care patients."

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I didn’t see their looks change during that clip, so I don’t know that they were reacting to what he was saying.

Yes Biden is remotely qualified. Obviously not in his prime. But he’s an old hand, and I trust he will listen to the opinions of those who know two, three, or four times more on a subject than he does, and try to act in the broader interests of the country. Hopefully, if he’s elected, he will only slowly decline, or to put it more positively, he will retain most of his current abilities over his presidency.

Compare the Biden clip to, “You call it a germ, you can call it a flu, you can call it a virus. You know, you can call it many different names. I’m not sure anybody even knows what it is, but the children do very well.”

I think we can all agree that the Trump administration abysmally mishandled this pandemic at the end of February and the beginning of March (“We’ve got it under control”), until reality forced his hand. It’s unfortunate that climate change cannot deliver the same slap in the face to the blind deniers.

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That’s Yuval Levin. A truly thoughtful and reasonable fellow and definitely a moderate. There really aren’t enough of those guys to go around.

Yes. It doesn’t matter one bit to Democrats that Joe Biden might not be as sharp as he once was. Joe Biden can be in a coma on election day & diehard Democrats & those who hate Trump would still show up to vote against Trump.

Will there be enough of them to beat Trump? I don’t know. But one think I do know is I don’t trust the numbers from biased media outlets that historically pushed incorrect biased numbers against Trump before. “The New York Times, The Atlantic, CNN, MSNBC & the Washington Post Predicts Trump to Lose By A Landslide!” No surprise there. No thank you. Been there, done that. I’ll wait until election day to say who will be president.

Ok, put it this way than; how can that question be answered without polling data? I don’t have access to any data that’s not available to everyone else.

I don’t share your faith in polling data. In the last election cycle, the democrats were confident of a win based on it and we know how that turned out. Maybe I’m just looking for reassurance that things can’t possibly get worse. I had my fill of politics after the last election and I confess that I haven’t followed politics much since.
Now that Trump’s nightly press conference/rallies have put his considerable flaws on display, the sordid mess is hard to ignore.
I don’t share the democratic party’s optimism or confidence in Mr. Biden but I’m ok with being proven wrong in November.

Nate Silver at 538 last poll before the election gave Trump a 27% chance of wining the Electoral college.

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Politics is a lot like stock car racing. One of the appeals of NASCAR is that guys see “regular cars” running around the track, and they all think to themselves, “I could do that.” They can’t.

You could get around the track alright, and in fact I encourage to try it at Richard Petty Experience, but you can’t be competitive. There’s just too many moving parts and the skill required is much more than seems apparent. Much like politics with polling and political science in particular.

Polling is an art form and it’s expensive. Assumptions have to be made and you have to ask the right questions, as well as THE RIGHT PEOPLE. In 2016, the Clinton campaign wrongly concluded that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were deadlock sure bets. Subsequently, no money was spent on polling in those states. The national polling was spot-on. Therefore, this was an error with the campaign in not knowing where their own weaknesses lay. It was NOT an error in polling.

What does this mean for lay people? It means one should recognize what they don’t know and understand the limitations of what they do know. There are a lot more moving pieces than meets the eye and one is not expected to know these things without digging beneath the surface. As individuals, we should strive to know the difference between right and wrong, and make the best choices that we can.

Will wait until election day.WAY too many moving parts.

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In case anyone is wondering how POTUS45 spends his day wrestling with the greatest American pandemic in 100 years, and worldwide economic collapse, the answer is simple: he takes valuable time from his day to tweets lies.

Is that a good use of his time?

Here is the latest whopper:
Biden/Obama were a disaster in handling the H1N1 Swine Flu. Polling at the time showed disastrous approval numbers. 17,000 people died unnecessarily and through incompetence! Also, don’t forget their 5 Billion Dollar Obamacare website that should have cost close to nothing!”
— President Trump, in a tweet, April 17

Distilled from the WAPO (edited at…):
…as of April 17, there were more than 700,000 [Covid19] cases reported in the United States and nearly 40,000 deaths, more than double than what supposedly took place under Obama…

The Facts
…The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that from April 12, 2009, to April 10, 2010, there were 12,469 deaths in the United States because of…the swine flu virus. That was the midpoint of an estimate that ranged from a low of 8,868 to a high of 18,306. As we noted, Trump often cites this figure as 17,000…Here’s a comparison of the first 86 days of the 2009 swine flu in the United States and first 86 days of the 2020 covid-19 outbreak.

Swine flu
April 15, 2009 — first infection detected
July 10, 2009 — 37,246 cases, 211 deaths

Covid-19
Jan. 20, 2020 — first infection detected
April 15, 2020 — 654,425 cases, 32,900 deaths

…Clearly, covid-19 is striking with much more force — and faster.
Only after the swine flu pandemic had passed did researchers use a time series analysis to estimate how many excess deaths in a given period could be attributed to the swine flu but were not counted in the official death statistics… Many deaths are triggered by the flu but occur later, via secondary bacterial infection or exacerbation of underlying chronic diseases, even as flu symptoms may have disappeared.

In other words, when Trump began criticizing Obama over the swine flu, he was comparing apples and oranges — later calculations vs. real-time figures. Now, with the covid-19 real-time death toll more than double the after-the-fact calculations, it’s an especially bizarre comparison.
And what about the administration’s handling of the pandemic?..On April 26, 2009, when only 20 cases of H1N1 — and no deaths — around the country had been confirmed, the Obama administration declared H1N1 a public health emergency. The administration quickly sought funding from Congress, receiving almost $8 billion. Six weeks later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic…

[Also] Contrary to Trump’s tweet, Obama had far better polling numbers than Trump has ever had during the swine flu pandemic, and the Obamacare website did not cost $5 billion…
END

Nice to know POTUS45 is keeping his eye on the ball…

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