The market loves predictability and given that TACO is becoming the norm with multiple obvious examples lately, the market is starting to adjust and bake TACO into the cake when considering the blusters and false promises or claims that routinely come from POTUS.
Going forward I would expect to see smaller market drops when POTUS makes these empty threats and then bigger market bounces either when the inevitable TACO occurs or in anticipation of TACO.
I want it to take a vacation to Kiev, since Cheeto jesus stopped the Ukraine War five months ago. Or, maybe I’ll take a sun-filled beach getaway at the new TrumpGaza Resort.
Maybe they are printing the checks in that limestone mine. Remember the one where they processed federal retirement applications? The one Elon said he shutdown?
But it was never shutdown and is still working. Maybe they are printing our tariff checks there.
Cheeto jesus always keeps his promises. Where’s my damn tariff money?!?!
In general, any investor who bets on Trump lost. Same for those who bet against him. IMO, the safest, most profitable bets is to bet against the emotional sheep. Rebalance on the highs & rebalance on the lows. Try to have the safe, nest egg money in historically safe assets when the tide starts to rise. When Trump started his tariff rhetoric/policy the sheep, even those who made comments on this thread, thought it was the end of Merica that would take years to recover. The S&P is near the year high & Sachs says it will close at 6100 at eoy. I find it easier to make money in volatile markets btw. It’s easier to see the sheep moving.
Certainly there is more money to be made when there is volatility but that also requires more activity to capitalize.
For those of us that are more the buy and hold/set and forget it investors, the best we can do is rely on dollar cost averaging to help smooth the peaks and valleys and sleep well knowing that the American economy is the most powerful, resilient economy the world has ever known, with no long term regard for who might be POTUS or what party might be in power.
Predictions are less than 50% accurate historically. So flip a coin.
One thing for sure is the continued above average volatility. Many are abandoning the US market due to this or converting to cash assets until sanity happens.
Last night we were cleaning out a safe, moving things to the banks’ safety deposit box in preparation of a summer trip. I found a old 22" Cuban linked gold chain that someone gave me years ago that I never wore. That damn thing sells for TEN THOUSAND DOLLARS now!! I’m selling that thing when we get back. There’s money to be made from those converting to cash equivalent safe assets too.
IMO, TSLA has been over valued for years. I thought it was the retail investors that wanted to save the world with electric cars that put Tesla on the map. Then the MM’s that chased them that made TSLA stock price what it is today. Very little to do with Elon Musk imo. When Musk jumped into the political arena, that was the end of the “Save The World” hype. Partisan politics trumps everything, even saving the world for those that once believed in that kind of stuff. There’s a lot of ways to save the world for those that believe they have the ability so too bad for TSLA investors. If Musk/TSLA can ever become valuable to Trump or Anti-Trumper’s again there’s a possibility the stock price can recover imo. I’ve never owned TSLA directly, but I feel bad for other retail investors who own S&P500 & other funds that own S&P funds or TSLA directly. I own dozens of funds that own TSLA btw, but I’ll be alright.
It’s like crypto coins, the stock price is driven by the greater fool theory. The intrinsic value of Tesla is MAYBE $120 providing the government handout to electric cars isn’t taken away or the US allows better electric cars to be imported.
They are all guilty but very difficult to prove. The only solution is to ban trading unless in a blind trust but that won’t happen. Foxes don’t guard chickens well. One of the ones that I admire most is Marjorie Taylor Greene who went from a net worth of $700,000 before being elected to $21 million after being elected in 2021, that’s a big jump.
They are easy to track if one is interested.