The answer you evaded is that the tactic is effective but not necessarily a singular war-winning strategy. It’s not Trump’s only strategy. He’s avoiding direct, kinetic war. He’s sending a message even you can read.
Apparently only 5% of the files have been released. But who knows, from what I have seen I can not in all honesty believe anyone connected to this saga.
I called at La Guaira in the early 70’s just after Perez nationalized the oil industry in one of the first visits of a container ship.
The place was awash with money with oil prices tripling and a magnificent freeway had just been built from the port to Caracas. Someone had realized the advantage of containers and we had some stuffed full of armaments, unbeknown to us, that caused a bit of excitement.
A local shipowner came onboard and offered us all jobs at an eyewatering sum. None of us was tempted.
You are correct that they often are not successful in regime or policy changes however, here are a few examples where they have worked. This obviously is cut and paste.
South Africa (Apartheid era): Extensive international sanctions, including trade restrictions, arms embargoes, and financial penalties, were imposed on South Africa to protest and end its policy of apartheid. These measures, alongside internal resistance, were a significant factor in forcing the government to negotiate and eventually dismantle the system.
UN Sanctions on Iraq (1990s): After Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, the UN Security Council imposed a comprehensive sanctions program that effectively cut off nearly all of Iraq’s oil exports. This was a clear example of effective multilateral enforcement at the time, significantly limiting the country’s economic capability and forcing participation in an “oil-for-food” program.
US vs. Netherlands (1948-1949): The United States suspended Marshall Plan aid to the Netherlands as pressure for Dutch authorities to grant independence to Indonesia. Faced with significant economic costs, the Netherlands agreed to Indonesian independence in 1949.
**US vs. Taiwan & South Korea (1970s):**The U.S. used the threat or implementation of sanctions and aid suspensions to stop both South Korea and Taiwan from developing nuclear weapons reprocessing capabilities. In both cases, the target countries abandoned their plans to avoid the economic and diplomatic fallout.
US vs. Malawi (1992-1993): The U.S. and other nations cut off aid to Malawi to pressure for improved democratic standards and human rights. Highly dependent on foreign aid, Malawi swiftly adopted more open, multi-party democratic policies in response.
Recent Russia Sanctions: While not achieving immediate regime change or a halt to the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions have had a considerable impact on the Russian economy. Russia’s GDP and personal disposable income are significantly below pre-invasion trends, and the country faces high inflation and difficulties in interbank transactions, degrading its overall economic stability and ability to wage war effectively.
Well thank you. Now someone is talking about history, which I enjoy.
I really don’t have much interest in the specific Maduro thing. I’ve lived so long that USA-versus-South-American-dictator-of-the-moment is just another verse in a long country music song that will never end until I leave the bar.
In the examples you gave above I don’t see any where a dictator was removed from power solely by blockade and sanctions. A remarkable historical thing. I would have thought it more common.
The North Korean elites have only grown richer because of sanctions. They turned to cybercrime, counterfeiting, and drugs as national industries. The poor are as poor as ever but the rich are getting richer.
If the object is to stop whatever drug trade is coming through Venezuela then there is one thing to consider:
The harder it is to smuggle drugs the more valuable the drugs become, and the more incentive there is to smuggle them.
If Maduro is the kingpin in the drug trade he will become richer. Or, if he is one of just many narco warlords ruling Venezuela and another one finds a better way of smuggling drugs they will become richer and more powerful than Maduro.
Maybe Maduro is just a figurehead for such men now. Meaning, removing him from power does nothing. The narco warlords will just install another puppet, and increase smuggling through other pipelines.
Of course, it could be the cartels aren’t the real power in Venezuela, and the dictator is truly in charge himself, and the drug smuggling is going on more or less without his authority.
So, making smuggling more difficult increases the price, increasing the power of the cartels, who rule countries by bribery as much as violence, weakening the power of Maduro and increasing the power of the cartels.
But as I said I truly don’t care about the present matter.
The stopping of illegal drugs from Venezuela to the US is just a ruse as anyone with a brain knows. The ‘war on drugs’ is as successful as alcohol prohibition was 100 years ago in the USA. The smugglers and the guys who try to stop them are the ones making big money off it. The drug and alcohol trade is just suppliers meeting a market demand.Capitalism at work. Kinda like the oil business
If there aren’t willing buyers at the other end of the smuggling routes, the incentive to smuggle disappear.
Maybe the “war on drugs” have been aiming at the wrong target all these years?
PS: Of course the present situation has NOTHING to do with drugs at all.
3rd tanker taken Bella 1. Interdictions become a daily routine it seems . All “legit “ according to the hegemon secret ( no more ) rule: YES WE CAN ( and what U gonna do about it ) . They are teaching/showing NATO fleet, how to take russian ships in the Baltic. Getting better each day. Wonder who there (Baltic) will show cojones first ???
Weaponisation of uncertainty.
sounds to me like russian fellow (Viktor) , but it looks he sums it up quite well.
There has been a change in command of the USN Carribian Fleet: Admiral Jack Sparrow have taken over!
Guards deployed in the Read Sea , Bab el Mandeb & Gulf of Aden will need to be repositioned and they will do it gladly as jobs in the areas mentioned above have become scarce.
I saw three articles on that topic ( gCaptain included) when I finished posting above. . But knew U might be ecstatic to brake the news about Viking courage so i had left it for You to grab and boast about it. For a time being it is “ customs” inspection. Now we know what the “ anchor/cable cutting “ provocations were for few months back.
Here is a list of the 1413 vessels sanctioned by the US:
If anybody have the time and interest they can compare the tankers found on AIS in and around Venezuela with those on the sanction list.
MAYBE you can predict which vessel(s) is likely to be pirated next.
Oh I forgot, it is not only sanctioned vessels that are at risk, the cargo they carry MAY be sanctioned too.
PS:Unless you are carrying cargo for a US Oilco nobody is safe.
Somebody may have thought that naming their vessel Zaliv Amerika would give some protection:
It’s amazing to me the people who feel supporting Ukraine in repelling a hostile invasion is somehow war mongering that will lead to WWIII, but this escalating illegal murder and seizure on the high seas is somehow justified.
Perhaps the Houtis feel that the US is a drug dealer given the US distributes alcohol internationally (most whiskey comes from US). Would they then be in their right to just arbitrarily murder any one on a vessel any where carrying American whiskey?
This high seas escalation by the “shining city on a hill” could put many more mariners at risk as these sorts of warm conflicts pop up at various times throughout the world.
The people, known as Swedes (Svear in Old Norse), were a North Germanic tribe, with their name possibly deriving from a root meaning “one’s own,” forming the basis of modern Sweden.
Truly Vikings would not be happy if I called Sweds Vikings.