If one is concerned about insults, verbal jousting, turn of phrase to disadvantage, ridicule or similar …. rightly or wrongly, this place, or most anywhere at sea, seemingly just isn’t the place.
But John and the boys keep it all tamped down and semicivilized.
…. based on a few years observation….
Lovely to see you’re an expert and we should always be wary in a world ruled by experts.
Obviously English isn’t your specialty.
As for my conspiracy weaving, I’m doing pretty well so far. Not long before we hear what let the water in on this one. What’s your expert guess? If the yacht just heeled over and sank as everyone suggests, that would kill off the careers of a whole bunch of naval architect experts at Perini, and further afield. Perhaps the drop keel dropped off and took the bottom out of her. 
You should check the insults hurled at me over the years. Plenty to pick from. Steamer has a short fuse. He’s an expert. Nobody else is.
The original Pride Of Baltimore sank very quickly in a similar way. She was hit by a sudden squall, pinned over 90 degrees or so, and an off-center companionway allowed the boat to flood very quickly and sink. The replacement boat, Pride II, does not have off-center hatches and also has a watertight bulkhead or 2 if memory serves.
My own boat can and has survived being heeled over about that far, no off-center hatches and we have them closed anyway in bad weather. The Bayesian is very far from an offshore racing boat, a quick look at the photos seems to show a LOT of ways to downflood quickly if heeled over too far. They may have an offshore configuration of some kind that would not be in place anchored on a warm night.
Point of order regarding keels:
A retractable foil that is not ballasted is a centerboard. They add very little to stability, they are for sailing upwind to decrease leeway. Up or down would not have affected this situation.
A retractable keel is ballasted and very much affects stability. I am most familiar with them on relatively small boats that need to have deep draft to sail and shallow draft to get onto a trailer, but I have seen them on larger boats as well.
As with anything that floats, moving ballast higher results in less stability and a slower roll period. I have zero knowledge of this specific boat, but I could imagine a retractable keel raised to some extent to either fit in a shallow anchorage or tune the roll period to not be in synch with whatever swells existed in the anchorage.
Do we know if they snagged the anchor line? I had a very uncomfortable time of it when lying to a wind from the south and being hit by a sudden storm from the north, we got the anchor line around the keel and were close to beam-on until I got it untangled.
You really have to make the distinction:
(a) Tornadic waterspouts are just that: A veritable tornado, only on water instead of dry land. Thus the wind speeds and effects are as devastating as that of a terra firma tornado.
(b) Fair weather waterspouts. They look very similiar from afar, however, their mechanism is entirely different and their energy content is much, much less.
Although, of course, I haven’t been there, from your description, I would guess that you have experienced the latter category.
I can’t imagine that even the most seasoned captain would have told you that a tornado is nothing to worry about. The mere thought of 200, 300, 500 mph wind gives me the creeps, and should humble anybody in his right mind (do the energy math).
Anyone know how many other vessels were anchored near the Bayesian? If one or more were struck by the same blow their reasons for staying afloat would tell us much.
Lol I think you need to go on a yacht one day and find out.
Even a kid in a dinghy will tell you with the keel down the boats stable and rolls less with either floating fibreglass one or a steel plate as some had years ago.
How can dropping a sideways paddle in the water make it roll more?
What about the huge force to move it sideways?
I will take Mark Twain’s advice and let someone else try to explain it to you.
A lifetime of experience in lifting keel dinghys and yachts taught me.
Lowering the cog makes it roll more, still trying to work out how you can think that works
What your saying is when the keel falls off the boats more stable?
It is a question of metacentric height. The weight at the end of the keel is being lifted or lowered. The resistance the blade gives against the water to dampen the rolling motion is helpful, but not nearly as much as the weight distribution.
I guess its possible one of those 200, 300 or 500 mph tornadic waterspouts hit the Bayesien. Having been traumatized by a EF2 tornado & doing a lot of research on them afterward, I suspect a good indication of the type of waterspout will be from the debris field & what is shown on the weather services radar. Anything not tied down to the Bayesian could have been thrown for miles. Also, I don’t know about Italian National Weather Services but in the US services keep recordings of RADAR that show formation of large tornadoes. About it being a tornadic or fairweather waterspout, from the articles I’ve read on the subject I think the media is leaning toward fairwaether. A small waterspout was reported in the area at 3:55am & the BBC said there were 18 confirmed waterspouts on Aug 19th alone. If these were tornadic, it would make this area the most dangerous place to sail on the planet. Even worse, the same conditions that put these real tornadoes over water would exist over land too & Italy would be getting hit by several tornadoes a day.
Roll PERIOD changes. If I could raise and lower my keel, the lower it went the more stable the boat would be, but the roll period gets quicker. If I could raise my keel, the boat becomes less stable but more comfortable to an extent, the roll period becomes slower.
If the keel falls off the boat might not have any roll period at all, she would just fall over and stay that way!
(old square rigger trick when rolling at anchor was to hoist something heavy like the spare anchor up the mast some distance to try and get the roll period not to match the waves)
We would have to test that. I’ve seen the draught of Baysian documented at over 30 feet but with no shallower draught mentioned on that site indicating she most probably had a retractable keel. That length of blade is a considerable resistance to rolling. The captain would know from experience rather than stability diagrams the effect of that and set for the most comfortable whilst at anchor, slower but larger amplitude rolling or the opposite.
Well mathematically we can test it many ways using that stability diagram and equations. You know, because we are professionals at this.
One of my favorites is Roll Period = 17.6 / square root of GM.
Arguing about the effects of raising or lowering weights and their affects on metacentric height is moot in my opinion.
You have roll resistance and righting moment. A huge underwater foil that was say fiberglass and foam and essentially weightless in water would provide no righting moment whatsoever, but would make the boat resistant to roll.
PRACTICAL REASONS:
Maybe they should have built it with two masts…
Did they even batten down the hatches?
PHILOSOPHICAL REASON:
Too much money in too few hands.
From CNN (Updated 12:14 PM EDT, Wed August 21, 2024)
Eyewitnesses described furious gales and hurricane winds that left a mountain of debris near the pier.
Best to wait for the report. Until then everything is guessing, some less educated than others. If it wasn’t a billionaires yacht and life no one would give a rat’s ass anyway. About 4 cargo ships and some of their crew are lost every year but that’s not newsworthy nor does the reason for their loss cause much concern. They are just as dead although obviously less important for creating click bait.
True.
The survivors’ stories will be instructional, if harrowing, in terms of survival after a rapid sinking. The worst case scenario: untutored civilians, no warning, and sinking within a few minutes. Yet some made it to the liferaft(s). Their stories should come out soon.
Also review of any salvagable electronics that might of recorded current conditions at time of sinking. I don’t know if superyachts have vdr’s or not? As for the publicity of this sinking & lack of it in so many others. With so many oblivious to the maritime trade, I’m happy for any of it. I was at home during the Francis Scott Key disaster & was never asked so many intelligent questions by friends & acquaintances about the operation of the generators & in port navigation. We need all the help we can get in the publicity department imo.