I would expect that if there was a retractable keel, it wouldn’t be ballasted but rather simply a fin to reduce leeway when under way sailing. Any ballast would be permanently secured in the hull.
Modern ocean racing super-yachts have deep, ballasted, non-retractable keels which can be canted from side to side with massive hydraulic jacks mostly combined with lightweight retractable dagger boards on each side to provide lateral resistance, changing all of that at each tack.
I don’t see any evidence of that sort of arrangement here, so common sense eliminates having a heavy, ballasted retractable keel and associated heavy machinery to move it.
Interesting that the divers describe the hull as intact although they probably can’t examine the side on which she is resting. I’m not sure how this ship sinks by simply heeling over, bearing in mind it is designed for sailing and heeling over. If the heeling force was short or momentary as we could expect in a water spout, she should be designed for the mast to lay flat on the water and still right with the heeling force absent … oh, and the mast gone.
I note it has a stern door for water toys but no mention of that being opened. Any watertight door through the bulkhead should be small and centreline as a standard safety measure, so unlikely to be immersed in a knockdown.
I’m still open to conspiracy theories/sabotage noting the high value targets on board. There’s much more fun that way.
I’ve dealt with a lot of large yachts including Perinis bigger than this.
As for black swan events … a modern yacht this size at anchor in calm seas, in the Med, in August, the chance of actively mustering the owner and guests for a typical front or passing rain squall is about equal to the square root of f‘all.
The perceived risks of a knock down leading to catastrophic downflooding and sinking being basically zero. Until they weren’t.
I’ve definitely seen big gusts of +50 kts causing Perinis to heel 10 deg at the pier due to rig windage so sure … it happens. 80-100 kt downburst or tornado winds on the beam would have a huge effect, especially if the keel was retracted. This of course, to be determined.
There will now be a lot of blather about weather warnings and such. I suppose now we will have to await the final report. UK MAIB does detailed investigations and issues meaningful reports.
Condolences to those who now lost family and friends in an unusual incident.
And yes - the windows and doors on a Perini meet class and loadline requirements including for certain of the hull windows, no need for storm shutters due to enhanced strength. Typically the windows do not open.
I’ve seen a blurry video from a villa ashore showing the distinctive lights of the ship’s floodlit mast at anchor amidst the squall and rain, but I don’t detect any significant heeling. The masthead anchor light remains lit and steady during the video whilst the floodlights fail. Obviously a power blackout.
The (paywalled} article claims the ship was gone in 60 seconds and that the ship capsized because the mast ‘toppled’ (I call bulltish on that last bit).
If a nefarious cult, bent on eliminating a certain tycoon, has precise command of location and timing of waterspouts at their will, we are all at their mercy anyway
Or they simply used the expected squall to cover what really happened. Not beyond the realms of possibility.
Or you could answer the question; how does a well designed ship sink in 60 seconds? Without visibly heeling? In weather routinely encountered in that area for which she was designed?
We are already at the mercy of lots of billionaires. And governments have been bragging for decades about how they can change the weather. So that part is simply fact. Shall we just give up?
No yacht, no matter how super, is designed to withstand tornadic waterspouts, which typically exhibit wind speeds exceeding 200 mph (up to 500 mph have been projected by metereologists).
Although waterspouts may not be that rare in the med (see quote), they are not that frequent, either. They are definitely not encountered routinely. The majority of them is of the non-tornadic (a.k.a. fair weather) type. Another reason why catastrophic events from tornadic waterspouts are so rare is that, fortunately, their temporal and spacial scope is very limited.
Waterspout occurrences over the Eastern Adriatic (Croatia), Ionian and Aegean Seas, have been recorded systematically in the last decade. In the 12-year period 2002-13, a total of 407 waterspout days with 878 individual waterspouts have been recorded, resulting in a yearly average of 34 waterspout days with 73 individual events for all three areas.
[Sioutas et al.; 12th International Conferece of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, 2014]
I challenge that. This was a fully seagoing ship but simply called a yacht being a private leisure craft. It would have been designed and built to some stringent standard whether yacht class or passenger ship. It’s bigger than my ship, a three masted barquentine with 15 crew and 40 trainees regularly at seas in all weathers.
What did the water spout do? Suck the bottom out of the ship in several compartments? How did the water get in? That’s the question.
I have yet to see actual evidence that a water spout was involved. People say there was one but how would they know? It was the middle of the night. Are there radar records? I’m unconvinced. Video from ashore nearby just shows wind and rain. We need more evidence from nearby vessels.
A marine engineer shouldn’t need to explain it the deckies here but since it must be counterintuitive to some, lowering the heavy keel when there is no wind loading or weight of sails above the CG will induce a faster rate of roll that is very uncomfortable for most people. Raising the keel reduces GM and slows the rate which more people find acceptable even though the ship might be called “tender”.
So please point out which large super yachts have ballasted as opposed to unballasted, movable keels to reduce leeway. Show me a large sailing yacht which moves external ballast.
I’ll wait. Not going away despite you asking me nicely.
P.S. I sail a square rigged sailing ship of similar size to this one registered as a passenger ship and I’ve also commanded a sailing ship registered under Lloyds Yacht Class. How many have you, Steamer?
Many Perini sailing yachts have ballasted swing keel or „centerboards“. Operated by hydraulic rams.
They weigh about 30-45 tons depending on size of the yacht, being filled with lead.
Of course other large sail yachts use similar arrangements with retractable ballasted keels which can also be purely vertical operating and not hinged. Also hydraulically actuated.
I’ve never seen or experienced a waterspout in the Med but seen countless (hit by 1) in the GoM in the late 90’s. I can’t imagine they are so much different. When I first seen one near our vessel in the GoM, of course I was as nervous as could be. The old Capt explained to me that a waterspout is nothing to be worried about if you’re on a metal boat with the hatches closed as long as you’re away from the rig & inside the boat. He said he had been hit by a couple & his logic was, waterspouts were nearly completely filled with water. Almost all the energy & force is being used to move the water. They are real slow compared to tornadoes. A coulple years later I was on an OSV passed over by a waterspout & the ring buoys were taken & everything else not tied down. The large 3" & 4" 50ft transfer hoses weren’t disturbed. I think we lost a windbird from the top of the bidge. The glass from the searchlights were fine. It was a good boat washing & nothing else. Several years later my family & I had a NWS certified EF-2, 200 yard wide tornado plow over us & that was bad. Instead of heavy water slowing it down, it was nothing but air, full of destruction traveling at 125mph.
On the water, I would be more concerned by that weather phenomenon of the jet stream falling out of the sky compared to waterspouts.
OK. Conceded. Doesn’t mean I am wrong about this ship. Nor does it mean your original insult was warranted.
Logic (common sense) would still suggest hanging 100 tonnes of ballast permanently off hydraulics, as in M5, is not the ideal, safe solution. Nor is losing 20 feet of vertical space in prime mid ships location for the upraised keel. But I suppose I’m not a billionaire.
Still asking about your sailing ship experience, Steamer? Any?
Virtually none but have years of technical experience with large yachts, sail and motor, along with tankers, boxboats, ferries, tugs, and submarines and manned submersibles so am imminently qualified to call bullshit to your weird ideas about what is and what should be in Jughead world vs reality. As you might be able to sense, I have zero patience with uninformed conspiracy weavers posting nonsense.
/ 
enough please!
