The Sea Demonstrates Again It Doesn't Care - Yacht Bayesian

Here’s the full Roger Long quote from the Loose Cannon site

"Seventy-three degrees? There you go. The heeling arm would have again been above the righting arm at about 2/3 of that angle and, without sheets to ease or ability to steer, she would have been committed to capsize around 50 degrees of heel. Vessels without sails set will also exhibit dynamic heeling, according to Wolfson Unit wind tunnel test which would reduce the wind force necessary to capsize by roughly half. No mystery here. About the same range of stability as the first Pride of Baltimore."

According to Wikipedia the downburst that struck the Pride of Baltimore was estimated at 80 knots.

Edit: Elsewhere the wind speed estimate is given as 60-80 kts. The NTSB report says “probably greater than 60 knots”

Wind: From 070° to 080° at 18 to 25 knots increasing to 30 to 35 knots just prior to the squall (the high wind that caused the accident). The wind in the squall was probably greater than 60 knots from approximately the same direction for a duration of 15 to 30 minutes.

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No, thanks I wasn’t aware of that. Adds to the plausibility.

Earl

There will be a very searching examination of the stability book and how well it related to the actual stability of the vessel. I agree with Earl that the video fits with the vessel foundering so quickly and the wall of water coming through the open glass door overwhelmed those passengers still below.

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The heading shown from the AIS of the Bayesian doesn’t really make sense. Apparently the yacht Bayesian’s AIS was not receiving any heading data.

The video showing AIS data of the yacht Bayesian spinning around is evidently not based on heading data from the compass but is just the direction of travel.

The heading from AIS of the Sir Robert Baden Powell is heading data from the compass.

The information on the AIS starts at about 0:45

Perini/ISG boss talking to the press again (browser auto-translation) - more blame game…
Bayesian, now it’s a clash: the builders accuse the crew, the captain denies them - Giornale di Sicilia (gds.it)

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Translated to English:

“From the analysis of the harrowing 16 minutes of that night, we believe that water entered through the rear hatch.” Giovanni Costantino, CEO of Italian Sea Group, which took over Perini, the company that built the Bayesian, the yacht that sank on August 19 off the coast of Porticello, is certain of this. The sailing vessel belonged to a company linked to the wife of British magnate Mike Lynch, one of the seven victims of the shipwreck.

The entrepreneur made this statement during the broadcast Cinque minuti, hosted by Bruno Vespa on RaiUno, airing tonight. “We believe,” he added, “that the typical actions of a crew to protect the people and the ship were not carried out. The ship should have been prepared by closing and sealing it. It was unsinkable. If water hadn’t entered that ship,” the CEO of Italian Sea Group explains, “it would have had no problem at all. The incoming storm was clearly visible and readable; it’s telling that fishermen understood the situation and didn’t go out to sea. Could a 700-ton ship remain at sea in such conditions? It’s not advisable, but it could. In fact, the small ship nearby was prepared to handle the situation; the larger, highly advanced ship suffered the consequences. Water undoubtedly began to enter from the stern, flooding not just one watertight compartment, but also the adjacent one, the engine room. When the wind picked up, the ship started to drift: a 14-minute journey in which it continued to take on water; stability was compromised, and the water reached the generators.”

READ ALSO
“Why was the crew unaware of the approaching storm?” asks the head of the company that took over the manufacturer of the Bayesian.

In those 16 minutes, not everyone was saved “probably because,” Costantino continues, “the crew did not coordinate, they were not adequately prepared, they were distracted and not ready to act, for various reasons they did not operate in the right way, in the right sequence, or with the necessary urgency. They didn’t consider the people below deck. They didn’t follow the right procedures, and seven people were trapped. The first 14 could have been saved if only an alarm had been raised.”

This reconstruction was denied by Commander James Cutfield, who was reached in Majorca and denied that the rear hatch was open. “No, no,” the captain replied to the journalist’s question.

READ ALSO
The curse of Autonomy: on Saturday, the top manager and co-defendant of the magnate missing in Porticello died in a car accident.

In the meantime, the Navy’s divers, the Comsubin, divers, and commandos have gone into action. They are working to recover the surveillance system and other devices on the vessel. All this material should help shed light on what happened during the 16 minutes before the sinking. Investigators continue to work to reconstruct what happened the night before the shipwreck. According to the investigation, there could not have been any party on board. Mike Lynch, the English magnate who personally managed the movements of the sailing vessel, had received news that night of the death of his friend Stephen Chamberlain, co-defendant in the fraud trial and acquitted along with the English magnate. The businessman was reportedly so shaken by the news that he decided to return home and cut the vacation short.

Chatgpt 4o

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Presumably the divers can tell us whether that rear hatch is currently open or not.

Earl

I’m surprised photos have leaked to the tabloids yet.

Perini have to get divers down to get the right setup of open and closed hatches so the crew get 100% of the blame…then the photos can come out

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No surprise there, they are extremely averse to any scent of litigation.

About six divers from the Italian navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the superyacht for electronic equipment — including data storage and CCTV footage — while checking to see if doors were left open.

One thing the Perini CEO will learn is that an experienced yacht owner typically has a trusted captain and chief engineer that he has
relied upon for years to keep his family and money safe as well as to advise which brokers to use and builders to visit.

If he keeps slagging the captain and crew before fully found facts are reported - industry professionals will quietly ensure Perini, and ISG for that matter, are somehow at the bottom of every list.

Just sayin’

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Are there any doors to be left open that could cause this heal to stb and sink or they already decided the crew were at fault?
How about:
Designer
Class
MCA
Builder

Sound like they floated a deadly vessel.

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His is the cry of desperation, it’s not the first time.

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An interesting possible (and I emphasize possible) set of factors in play here.

Perini designs a sailboat with a lowered cabin floor whose access permits it to flood if the boat heels rail down. Perini compensates for that by installing computerized sail control designed to keep the boat from heeling rail down if it takes a slam in normal service (sails up, keel down).

Now their design takes a major slam while at anchor (sails down, keel up, computer not relevant). It heels rail down, floods and sinks. Are they at fault? Or should the captain have been aware of this vulnerability and taken precautions at any sign of a possible atmospheric event?

Or was this just an unlikely “edge case” and “black swan” event which was bad luck for the victims and filed under “sh*t happens”?

The only thing I know for sure is that there are very few simple casualties in today’s world.

Earl

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It’s kind of why there are investigations and reports.

That said, ISG parent of Perini has significant “pull” and many “investments” in Italy.

Maybe the public noise making is to alert everyone that the matter needs a rather deeper investigation that focuses on the “necessary” facts. It’s not like this guy is being subtle.

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Divine intervention?

The Man Who Sued God (2001) - IMDb

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Billy nailed it in this one :joy:. Should be standard training film for underwriters

Would it happened to the ketch rigged version?

A ketch rig would have a lower center of lateral area. There would therefore be less heeling force applied to the hull. Whether this would be enough less to prevent the hull from going rail down is a question that would take some calculating to estimate and simulation to answer, and since that effort would not directly impact the blame game I doubt anybody will do it.

Earl