Shipping News revived

[spowiednick]

Andrew Craig-Bennett on globalisation - Splash247

" The editor (whom God preserve!) is of the opinion that CK Hutchison’s sale of their ports and terminals operation to a consortium of BlackRock and MSC marks the end of globalisation as an idea which rules our thinking on trade in general and trade by sea in particular, and that the tariffs just introduced by the United States mark the start of a very different set of ideas about trade between nation states.
I am of the contrary opinion. I think free trade, or at any rate WTO trade, will beat tariffs. "

One interesting comment:
" Politicians don’t ‘get’ shipping and the current US government absolutely has no clue about world trade and their weaponisation of Trade Tariffs will be an expensive distraction.

The Good News is that the American public (who have even less understanding of all of this than DJT) may feel the pinch of inflation and vote with their pocket books in the Mid-Terms to stymie any more chaos. Only 600 days to go. "

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Preliminary signs of a two-tier freight market emerge as US crackdown on...

The American president will make a decision soon on whether to carry out suggestions made by the office of the US Trade Representative (USTR**)** following an investigation carried out over the past year into China’s growing dominance in maritime, especially in the realm of shipbuilding.

“Initial industry reaction suggests that the market contemplates an increase in freight rates, a substantial diversion in traffic towards Mexican ports, and a cancellation of some newbuilding contracts at Chinese yards,” Hill Dickinson suggested in a note to clients.

Clarksons Research has calculated nearly 37,000 US port calls last year by ships that would likely face the maximum $1.5m fee due to their connection to China, equivalent to 83% of containership calls but only around 30% of stops by tankers.

PS> With the looming trade war with everybody there many no be much need for ships to call at US ports.

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China is not taking the US proposed port fee laying down:

Chinese owners and yards come out fighting in US trade dispute - Splash247

No, China will not retaliate with fees against US-built or US-flag ships, since they are nearly non-existent in world trade.

In a comment filed on the USTR site, CSA called the agency’s proposed actions discriminatory and said they violate World Trade Organization rules as well as WTO dispute settlement rulings.

The USTR’s move also violates the 2003 Sino-US Maritime Agreement, CSA said, adding that it violates US laws and rules.
The proposals exceed the statutory authority of the USTR, infringe on the jurisdiction of the Federal Maritime Commission, violate the standards for agency action under the Administrative Procedure Act and violate the Export Clause of the US Constitution, the group said.

Global Times , a state-run Chinese newspaper, lambasted the American plans earlier this week in an OpEd, arguing: “The chasm between American and Chinese shipbuilding is fundamentally a gap in industrial infrastructure. The forces of globalization swept away America’s steel mills, machine shops and skilled labor force, leaving behind rusting supply chains and a hollowed-out manufacturing base. Shipbuilding, a quintessential heavy industry, requires a robust industrial foundation. When that foundation crumbles, shipbuilding inevitably follows.”

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More restrictions on foreign ships calling at US ports could be implemented:

US could bar ships from countries seen to be creating maritime chokepoints -...

Is a “Three-ring Circus” is setting up it’s big top tent on The Mall?:

“As the Trump 2.0 reality show unfolds, as it does daily, often with singular market-moving tweets, we might as well suspend trying to make credible forecasts of future supply-demand balance across shipping sectors. Underwhelming spot earnings render shipping sentiment downbeat while we seek greater clarity on today’s geopolitical, trade and social threats,” noted a recent report from broker Hartland Shipping.

And the clowns are ruling the circus.

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And the big question is:

Can these two men find some middle ground to keep world trade moving? -...

Economists have been left flabbergasted by the opening months of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the international rulebook torn up, policies raining in and often being rescinded by the hour. Making a call on how the global economy plays out in the coming months has rarely been more tricky, or down to the whims of one man.

At no point since tracking began on the subject have global trade policies been more uncertain than right now, according to one index developed in the US:

I’ve rarely seen a year start with more uncertainty

The full ramifications for how relations between China and the US, the world’s two largest economies, will develop between Trump and his counterpart, Xi Jinping, still remain unclear.

“While we are all kept guessing as to what Mr Trump has in mind for US-China relations, let’s consider the Chinese astrological Snake: it is wise, mysterious and thoughtful,” says Mark Williams, who heads up consultancy Shipping Strategy: “Snakes like big ideas and understanding how things work. In this Year of the Snake, we could all do with some of these characteristics if we are to come out the other side in better shape.”

PS> Splash 24/7 has a new magazine:
As well as markets coverage, this new magazine also covers pressing regulatory issues and likely tech breakthroughs. Click here to access the full magazine.

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Thai shipping company Precious Shipping, is busy in the news today:

Precious Shipping diversifies with Malaysian tanker venture - Splash247

“The jv company aims to acquire high-quality assets and employ them with industry-leading charterers, providing revenue stability and earnings visibility,” the statement said.
Precious Shipping, which currently counts a fleet of 44 bulkers on a fully delivered basis, will own 45% of the new company, expected to be established in the next two months.

Western Bulk pockets $1.5m profit from ultramax sale - Splash247

The Oslo-listed company has offloaded the Western Singapore to Thai bulker owner Precious Shipping for $28m.
The purchase option was exercised at Japan’s Nisshin Shipping, and the 63,688 dwt vessel should be delivered to Precious Shipping by April 16, the Khalid Hashim-led company said in a stock exchange filing.

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Industry and academia unite to tackle global shipping challenges at the...

The consortium will launch multiple research projects designed to tackle challenges from a variety of angles, all united by cutting-edge data analysis and computation techniques. Collaborators will research new designs and methods that improve efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, explore the feasibility of alternative fuels, and advance data-driven decision making, manufacturing and materials, hydrodynamic performance, and cybersecurity.

But will it solve the problems associated with erratic policy now in place in Washington DC?

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Global shipping ‘stifled’ by Trump’s tariffs - Splash247

Most economists are now predicting slower and modest US GDP growth, an increased likelihood of recessions in the US and beyond, and therefore a possible contraction of global trade as well.

“Global shipping is expected to be stifled as a result of the broader tariffs,” argued US investment bank Jefferies in a note to clients yesterday.
Jefferies said the container sector was likely to be the most “sensitive” to tariffs, a point of view shared by BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen.

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Trump leaves this week's green talks at IMO up in smoke - Splash247

The most eye-catching scene from the ongoing 83rd gathering of the IMO’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) are the three empty seats reserved for the US delegation, with the Trump administration not only avoiding the meeting, but, like its tariff tactics, letting it be known that it would look to add reciprocal charges if any US-flagged ships face higher fuel bills.

In its rebuttal of this week’s talks, the US claimed that by pursuing a net-zero industry shipping would need to rely on “hypothetical expensive and unproven fuels”.

How Trump’s new economic order risks sinking green shipping - Splash247

Trump has pulled the trigger on a plan to restructure the global trading order. (1) To reverse US de-industrialisation. (2) To defend the dollar’s supremacy, and (3) redraw the postwar map of economic and security dependencies around a renewed American centre of gravity.

Between currency and carbon
The irony is rich. A strategy designed to protect American industry may end up undercutting the very industries poised to deliver the next wave of industrial reinvention. Clean fuels, advanced engines, port electrification, carbon sequestration, digital transformation — these are not niche interests. They are growth sectors, bursting with jobs, capital, and competitiveness. The fact that Homo Sapiens might also be able to cleave to our spinning rock a while longer comes some way down the list of benefits. In disrupting this, Washington is not asserting control. It is bleeding leverage.

The Mar-a-Lago Accord, if it ever materialises, will need more than nationalist posturing. It will require trust, consistency, and a willingness to listen to sectors that operate in the real economy, not just the imaginary scorecards of think tank white papers.

Global shipping does not need political sympathy. It needs a coherent policy. And if Washington now wishes to rebuild its industrial base while preserving dollar dominance, it must first acknowledge that global economic leadership cannot be willed into being by fiat. It must be earned through reliability.

In the end, the tariff war may not bring the collapse of the global trading system. But it may unravel the most ambitious maritime transformation in a generation — not by opposition, but by indifference.

That, history should not forgive.

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Keep calm and carry on:

‘Keep calm and carry on’: IMO GHG pricing talks continue despite US threats

Defying Trump?:

UN passes landmark carbon levy on ships, defying US threats

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The agreement also risks provoking retaliation from the US, which withdrew from negotiations on the policy this week and threatened “reciprocal measures” against any fees imposed on its ships. It’s unclear what form those measures could take.

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Pacific Island nations, which are particularly exposed to rising sea levels, had argued a levy was the most effective way to incentivise shipowners to transition to more costly green fuels. But large exporters and, more recently, the US have protested against the additional costs that could be passed on to the price of goods such as food, particularly while low-carbon fuels remain scarce.

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Japanese and Korean yards with investments in China on edge - Splash247

Similarly, the Trump administration might have to make concessions when it passes judgement on Chinese tonnage calling at US ports, as many Japanese and Korean yards subcontract much of their construction to China these days.

Like the tech pullback, Washington might be forced to make concessions as so many shipyard alternatives – such as Tsuneishi and Kawasaki Heavy in Japan and Samsung Heavy Industries in South Korea – have extensive production facilities in China. Moreover, shipyards the world over rely on China for many key parts in the building of any vessel.

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Lower trade = less need for shipping:

Trump's tariffs crash world trade forecasts - Splash247

The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 under current conditions, nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a low tariff baseline scenario, according to the WTO secretariat’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released yesterday. This is premised on the tariff situation as of April 14. Trade could shrink even further, to -1.5% in 2025, if the situation deteriorates come July 9 when Trump could slap more tariffs around the world.

Less shipping = less need for supplies and services for shipping = less maritime related jobs.

The road to economic disaster is paved with stupid policies.

[ombugge]

It is out (in a new and improved version):

Trump Moves to Levy Chinese Vessels in Widening Trade War

But there are pushback:

USTR's New Maritime Fee Regime Sparks Industry Pushback

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Signal’s Dry Market Report for week16 shows an interesting swing in the soybean trade: (No, not that “Signal”)

TSG - Weekly Dry Market Monitor: Week 16, 2025

This week’s highlight focuses on the shifting trends in soybean dry bulk flows from Brazil and the U.S. to China, following the latest round of tariffs imposed amid escalating trade tensions. We had already anticipated these changes in agricultural trade dynamics in November 2024, following the outcome of the U.S. elections.

U.S. Soybean Exports: Declining Share and Strategic Setback
In March 2025, export volumes plummeted to approximately 2 million tonnes—significantly lower than during the same periods in 2023 and 2024. This decline highlights the enduring consequences of the U.S.-China trade war. As tariffs and geopolitical tensions continued,

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Looks like they are assuming that there will be no LNG export by 2028:

Apart from fees on import vessels, USTR will incentivize the use of U.S.-built liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels by implementing restrictions on exports via foreign-built carriers. Specifically, the agency will introduce export restrictions on the maritime transport of LNG via foreign-built carriers beginning April 17, 2028, which will gradually increase over 22 years.

Source:

Vessel Fees, LNG Export Restrictions, and Proposed Tariffs on Chinese...

Maybe it would be smarter to look at what is ailing US shipbuilding and try to correct that, rather than trying to stop China from succeeding?

PS> No it is NOT the high wages in the US. It is rather the high salaries paid to management, the high return expected by stock holders and the lack of modernization of the building process.

Lack of incentive to do anything to compete with other high cost countries, like Japan and NW European countries is another reason.
This comes from “hidden subsidies” in the form of overpriced Government contracts.

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Beijing vents fury at US port fees - Splash247

The 42-page document released by the US Trade Representative (USTR) has been pored over by world shipping and has attracted criticism for its lack of clarity.

Chinese shipowners and operators do look to be hit with far higher bills. They will initially be charged $50 per net ton, rising by $30 a ton each year for the next three years.
The way the fees have targeted Chinese operators could see big shifts on the transpacific liner trades in particular.

China’s COSCO and OOCL are part of the Ocean Alliance along with France’s CMA CGM and Taiwan’s Evergreen. Hede Shipping is another niche independent Chinese operator on the transpacific.

The World Shipping Council (WSC), a liner lobby group, has hit out at the new fees, especially on the car-carrying ones.
“Unfortunately, the fee regime announced by USTR is a step in the wrong direction as it will raise prices for consumers, weaken US trade and do little to revitalise the US maritime industry,” said Joe Kramek, president and CEO of the WSC.

The Chinese government, shipbuilding and shipping associations, along with COSCO, have all condemned Trump’s port fees.
China’s national shipbuilding association called on the international maritime industry to “jointly resist this short-sighted US behaviour, and jointly maintain a fair market environment”.
The China Shipowners Association said the US move is “significantly discriminatory,” and the association “firmly opposes the US’ accusations based on false facts and prejudice”.

On LinkedIn, Dr Martin Kröger, the CEO of the German Shipowners’ Association, wrote: “The German shipping sector, like many others, will pay a steep price. More costs. More friction. More political games where merchants and consumers become collateral damage.”

Seams like wishful thinking?

Temporary suspension of the fee—up to a maximum of three years—may be granted if the vessel owner orders and takes delivery of a US-built ship of equal or greater net tonnage.

Who, in their right mind will order ships from US yards, looking at their record of prices and delivery time?
Even if ordered this year, will the ship be delivered within 3 years?

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Tobias Backer, executive director of Pelagic Capital, writes for Splash today on shipping’s cash requirements in uncertain times.:

Risk and opportunity exist within shipping’s choppy waters - Splash247

He is not very occupied with Trump’s tariffs and port dues, though:

This trend is particularly challenging when considered within the context of a rapidly aging global fleet, that will see approximately 15,000 vessels reach the end of their economic life within the next ten years. As a result, there is an increasing capital requirement within the industry that is not being supported through traditional financial institutions.

Maybe he sees that as a short term problem that will go away when the effects on the US economy exceeds even the stupidity of the Trump administration?

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The Koreans to the rescue:

Philly Shipyard steps forward to meet US LNG carrier requirements - Splash247

Hanwha Ocean, formerly Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME), is one of the world’s top builders of LNG carriers, one of the harder, more complex commercial ship types to consrtruct.

They will bring in knowhow, drawing, materials, machinery and the necessary expertise to build “all American” LNG carriers.
If anybody is willing to pay the price + tariffs, that is.

Not everybody thinks this is feasible:

Requiring the use of US-flagged ships for LNG exports has been branded unfeasible by the Washington DC-based lobby group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG).

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World's second-largest owner opens Washington office - Splash247

Since he returned to power on January 20, Donald Trump has made the day-to-day business of international shipping much more complex with tariff wars, extra fees on Chinese-built tonnage, pulling away from the International Maritime Organisation, as well as levelling ownership claims on the Panama Canal and Greenland.

[spowiednick]

Shipping data: UNCTAD releases new seaborne trade statistics | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)