RE: Pacific Maritime Security: Does Climate Policy Matter?

" Pacific island leaders argue growing tension between the US and China does little to address climate change, which they are adamant is the region’s single greatest threat."
See Pacific Maritime Security: Does Climate Policy Matter?

For most of the Pacific Islands, Sea Level rise is occurring at a rate of 3 mm/yr or less. Most tide gauges in the Pacific consistently show a relatively small sea-level rise, with a significant contribution by subsidence. Land subsidence is not affected by climate change or by any climate policy.


Same story for Florida I thought?

Yes, however the land subsidence in Fl is modest, mostly 1 mm/yr or less.

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Does that apply to the heavily built up area in and around Miami Beach as well?
Excessive depletion of ground water in such areas tend to cause subsidence as well.(??)

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Miami Beach is one area with some pockets of more significant local subsidence (1-3 mm/yr) mostly due to land use, Most of the city of Miami Beach is stable.

Land along Louisiana’s coastline is sinking much faster, estimated recently in a report from Tulane University that states that the average subsidence is 9 millimeters a year , more.

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Except the parts where buildings fall down and those where the streets flood at spring tides??

Here is a NOAA Report on Land subsidence at NOAA tide guages:

Building fall down mostly due to poor construction.

The combination of SL rise, land subsidence, “King Tides” and storm surges can flood buildings and streets built at low elevations.

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Current projections by the IPCC and NOAA are based on 5 different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) for CO2 emission scenarios (i.e. SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Many, if not most, of the high sea level projections reported by the media have been based on the SSP 8.5 scenario which has been described as the “business as usual” scenario. This scenario, far from being the “business as usual” scenario, can more accurately be labeled as the “extreme scenario” and not very likely. Depending on which scenario is used, the resulting projections of sea level rise can have a large differences over time from 0.3 meters (1 foot) to 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) by 2100, with a corresponding difference in the risk to coastal populations. Local land subsidence adds to these numbers.

Pacific island nation leaders are after sympathy and are trying to milk western nations’ guilt to extract money - for the chiefs, not the ordinary people. It works so they do it. The current move is for China to offer various unaffordable infrastructure boondoggles and the islanders wait for the west (rich) to counter with better offers. The Chinese projects repayments bankrupt the nation and allow China to move in more fully and own the critical infrastructure.

None of this will lift these nations out of poverty. Plain, ordinary economics and uncorrupted governance will. Fat chance!

Talking about lifting, coral atolls grow up with sea level rise and the majority of these islands have either grown in area or remained stable over recent decades. In the Indian Ocean, the PM of the Maldives held a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight his nation’s supposed plight - but nevertheless builds its international airport a metre and a bit above the sea level. Sea level isn’t a problem and neither is climate change. He’s angling for sympathy and cash.

Places like Fiji are not vulnerable to sea level rise being mountainous.

And measuring sea level is an entire science that can confound the simple mariner. Don’t try.

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When warming of the oceans kill the corals that build the island on the atoll ring reefs.
Barrier reefs no longer grow to give protection against erosjon of the coastline on the mountainous islands.