RE: Record Marine Heatwave Hits Mediterranean Sea

See: Record Marine Heatwave Hits Mediterranean Sea

“Marine heat waves are relatively unknown to scientists, with research papers on these ocean temperatures starting to appear only in 2013. The phenomenon has since become a key signal of climate change — for decades oceans have absorbed most of the additional heat in the atmosphere, acting like sponges for global warming.”

This sounds suspect to me to me since it is still uncertain just how the greenhouse effect directly affects the ocean’s heat uptake. The penetration depth of Infra-Red (IR) radiation caused by greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere into the ocean surface is limited to the sub-millimeter scale so it could not directly heat the layers beyond the top few micrometers of the ocean surface. The oceans absorb heat directly from the sun and as a result the net energy flux across the ocean/atmosphere interface carries heat from the ocean to the air. The heat (IR radiation) gained by the atmosphere from added greenhouse gasses is not able to penetrate the ocean surface more than a few micrometers so how could the “oceans have absorbed most of the additional heat in the atmosphere, acting like sponges for global warming.” ?

The current theory suggests that since the downward infrared radiation heats the very thin thermal skin layer (TSL) of ocean which has the effect of reducing the flow of heat from the ocean to the air, thus allowing the oceans to retain heat over time. Detractors of this theory point out that the increase in skin temperature would increase evaporation rates and thus tend to cool the skin surface, largely nullifying any warming effect.

I don’t think that the claim that " oceans have absorbed most of the additional heat in the atmosphere, acting like sponges for global warming.” is correct.

A recent SST Anomaly chart shows there are also large regions of “Marine Cold Waves” as well.

In the US mainland, tornado alley is drifting to the southeast as the jet stream shifts farther north. In a historically rare event, the ABC islands just got raked by a tropical cyclone and a tropical wave behind it is headed in the same direction. Possibly related to marine hot/cold waves?


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It was a tropical disturbance and not technically a cyclone. Also there were no “Marine Heat or cold Waves” anywhere nearby. Sea Temperatures were near normal.

I was thinking more along the lines of a butterfly effect.

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Nature seeks equilibrium so the butterfly effect (aka tipping point) is highly overrated. There are likely about 100 tropical waves each season in the North Atlantic but only about 10% become tropical cyclones. There are currently 3-4 tropical waves.

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Late June saw a semi-stationary upper ridge over the west-central Mediterranean which allowed for clear skies and thus very warm surface temperatures to heat-up sea surface. The Marine Heat Wave here is directly related to the prevailing weather pattern above.

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So higher temps in the GOM loop current have no effect on the land mass directly north of it. Got it.

Spoke to a friend in Aruba. The event was overhyped and underwhelming.

A post was merged into an existing topic: Climate Change

Never said or implied that

Granted I may have stretched the meaning of the butterfly effect to accommodate my point but I’m in good company. Ben Franklin had his own take on it long before Lorenz coined the phrase:

For want of a nail the shoe was lost,
For want of a shoe the horse was lost,
For want of a horse the rider was lost,
For want of a rider the battle was lost,
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.


Seems like a simple case of somebody forgot to chain the damn thing down…

From today’s WAPO [edited at…]:

On Friday, “heavy weather” swept a state-of-the-art fighter jet off the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman into the Mediterranean Sea, the Navy reported Sunday in a news release. No one was aboard the F/A-18 Super Hornet jet, which can fly faster than the speed of sound, or up to 1,190 mph.

The incident raises questions about what kind of weather could have possibly dislodged a jet that weighs more than 32,000 pounds.

A sailor was also injured at the time “while conducting operations,” the Navy wrote. The turbulent weather occurred when the Truman was conducting a “replenishment-at-sea” or resupply mission, the Navy said, which “was safely terminated.”

…A Navy spokesperson did not immediately respond to questions about the conditions that might have led to the fighter being swept overboard. But although the Navy described the heavy weather as “unexpected,” an analysis of available computer model forecasts from the middle of last week reveals that there were many signs of storminess ahead of the incident…

…Before the incident, a brutal, prolonged heat wave gripped Italy…But Thursday marked the end of heat wave as a strong cold front swept across the country and the Ionian Sea from the north. Computer models simulated ocean waves building to 8 feet.

…European forecast model shows a high-altitude zone of low pressure and cold air centered over the Ionian Sea on Thursday. (

…These models also showed an intense zone of low pressure and cold air at high altitudes passing over the sea, contrasting sharply with abnormally warm sea surface temperatures. The sea surface temperatures were up to 7.2 degrees (4 Celsius) warmer than normal — meeting the criteria for an ocean heat wave, according to the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change.

Sea surface temperature difference from normal over the Mediterranean on Thursday. (WeatherBell)

The contrast between temperatures at the ocean surface and high in the air might have created an exceptionally unstable atmosphere conducive for thunderstorms.

Intense thunderstorms are known for unleashing downward blasts of violent winds or “microbursts” that slam into the ground and fan outward. Microburst winds can top 100 mph and generate damage comparable to tornadoes…It’s possible that a microburst thrust the parked Super Hornet overboard…

The Aviationist, a military aviation website, called the incident “at least bizarre.”

… Super Hornets cost about $50 million per aircraft to build…

During the early morning hours of the 8th there was a minimal Gulf of Lion Gale

Later during the late evening of the 8th near gale conditions noted in Gulf of Taranto

The previous day (July 7th) forecast gale winds for the Gulf of Lion early on the 8th

Then strong to near gale conditions for evening 8th-9th for the Ionian Sea