The Northwest Pacific Ocean is the most active basin in the world where there is, on average, about 25-26 tropical cyclones with an average of 16 typhoons. The 17 storms last year would be close to average.
Globally, the number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes has not increased over time based on satellite data via Dr. Ryan Maue
I concur. The article makes no verifiable connection between “global warming” and the disruption weather has caused to shipping operations in the area.
How much did the globe warm in the two years between the supposedly good year and the supposedly bad year? I suspect the answer is “stuff all.” Possibly the adiabatic temperature difference between your head and your feet when standing. If that. Again, stuff all.
Yet here we have a ‘respectable?’ authority claiming that temperature difference has caused extra typhoons when in actuality, there’s no difference to historical averages.
Facts, actual verifiable empirical facts, don’t seem to matter to the warmists who push this stuff.
Most likely the difference was the strong El Nino that was still active in 2016 but had diminished significantly by 2017 and 2018.
During El Nino conditions the warmer SST a shifted eastward over the central and eastern Pacific which decreases convective activity (decreased TC activity) over the western Pacific. During La Nina conditions the warmest SST are over the western Pacific which enhances convective activity and TC development over that region.
I have no problem with your explanation of the perfectly natural phenomena of oscillating variations causing warming or cooling. The article inferred that ‘global warming’, which along with ‘climate change’ are generally defined by the warmists to be human caused, caused disruption to schedules. This is wrong. Weather caused the disruptions and the weather was well within the normal climatic variability.
Part of the issue with predicting long-term climate change is the uncertainty as to how CO2 affects temperature. Estimates of CO2’s contribution to the greenhouse effect vary greatly between 2% (0.7 C) to as much as 26% (8.6C) of the total 33 C greenhouse effect. This means that there is some uncertainty as to CO2’s actual contribution. In addition, there is also uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate to CO2. The best estimates I can find is that doubling CO2 in the atmosphere should result in a warming of 0.4 C to 1.2C before factoring in any feedbacks. http://oceanweatherservices.com/blog/2019/01/29/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/
1 Like