The news is awash with stories of the MV Conscience, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Corporation, suffering damage from several explosions. They claim this was due to a drone strike by the IDF.
I have a lot of questions, and so far I’ve seen no intelligent discussion anywhere, which is why I come here. Why do they believe it was a drone strike? On the receiving end there is no discernible difference between an anti-shipping weapon delivered by UCAV, and by any other platform. Also, pictures of the impact site do not look like the work of a proper anti-shipping weapon at all. So far I’ve only found them posted in Norwegian news media, but it’d be interesting if someone could dig up hi res originals. There is apparently another hole in the ship’s side, but I’ve seen no pictures of that anywhere.
It looks a lot like two(?) relatively small (<1 kg) high brisance explosive charges went off in contact with the deck plating, as evidenced by how the plates are curled sharply inwards at the edges of the holes. They will have been in thin and / or low density casings, as evidenced by the shrapnel pattern on the bulwarks. Are there any weapons capable of targeting a ship at sea at night, with this kind of terminal ballistics signature?
Judging the evidence by my very limited knowledge of explosive damage, this looks a lot like an explosive charge was place don board, or perhaps the work of an ad-hoc weapon like a suicide quad. Whatever it is, it’s surely not a proper anti-shipping weapon. For reference, here’s what a harpoon missile does to a warship:
“Drone” is a very loosey goosey term in 2025. It could be a DJI Mavic dropping a grenade, could be a American made Predator, or any other loitering munition in between.
I do not know everything in the IDF Arsenal, but based of what we’re seeing out of Ukraine this is very much what drones do. This was likely some form of one way attack drone or loitering munition. The Shahed for example, has a variant with only a 10kg payload.
Yeah I guess that’s what they’re saying, it just doesn’t compute. When you say “drone strike by the IDF,” it brings to mind something high tech and high altitude. How would you even go about targeting a ship at sea at night with a suicide quad? Lay in wait with a fishing boat or something? Seems like a lot of effort just to scratch the paint…
Or maybe they wanted to kill someone on the IDF terrorists list holding a cell/sat phone at that exact place on the bow of the ship. Sinking a ship wouldn’t guarantee a death of a target. Using a drone to take them out when they walked to the bow of the ship, farthest from the engine noise & blowers to use a sat phone would?
The Israeli have an established MO for doing that: Hit them with a boarding party, shoot a couple, detain the rest and make them question if they ever get to go home. What we see here would be very out of character, and doing it this close to Malta (instead of home) would be outright stupidity. I wouldn’t put it past the IDF (or I guess Mossad) to try something away from home, but then I’d expect something more like a limpet or two under the ER.
What sticks out the most to me is the use of a home brew munition. To underscore my earlier point: Any precision munition I’m aware of will be designed either for armor penetration or anti-personnel use. Armor piercing munitions either leave a small hole in the plate, or cause widespread damage to the surrounding area if they’re big enough. Modern anti personnel warheads are all loaded with prefrag that leave a much tighter shrapnel pattern than what we see in the pictures. This certainly applies to any “proper” military grade suicide quads developed and fielded by the IDF, which would in any case be an incredibly odd choice of weapon.
So while I wouldn’t put it past Mossad to do something like this on a moral level, it just doesn’t feel like them. It is also conspiciously incompetently done, especially with regards to the political fallout and the political nature of the FFC mission. Now if I’m correct in that this might be a non state actor of some sort, it opens up some spicy options.
