[QUOTE=company man 1;36148]Just browsing through the table of contents of this report, why do I get the feeling that this report & the final report on Macondo #1 will have many similarities ?[/QUOTE]
They have a lot in common.
[QUOTE=KASOL;36214]They have a lot in common.[/QUOTE]
Kasol, I want to give you a special thanks for your contributions. You have provided some outstanding vids & reads. Thanks again.
[QUOTE=company man 1;36212]
ALf, I have to ask you this in front of all the other posters & readers. You should be one of the most if not the most respected poster on this sight. I want your opinion from what you have seen & read. Do you think it is a pretty good possibility that this whole thing has been a sick joke of a cover up or do you think these guys have been up front & sincere ?[/QUOTE]
Don’t give me too much credit. Like the rest of you I am working from very little and very poor information.
I don’t know about it being a sick joke, but you are right, there is a lot of covering up going on. It’s evident from discussions in this forum and some others I’ve looked at, plus I’m also hearing it from other sources and contacts.
…“Up front & sincere”… give me a break. Their propaganda machine kicked in on day one. Their own internal policies say do not give statements/info to the media or the public etc.
So what you get is some carefully worded semblance of the truth, but not much. In this particular case, because it’s so big an event, their disinformation machine appears to have kicked into overdrive, hiding the very few facts that do come out under tons of BS. You want it… you dig for it! Geobbels was a rank amateur compared to what we’re seeing here.
In an earlier post I said something like…
"It’s just yet another example of the puppet amusing the crowds, and occasionally it farts with a bit of info…
but hey, don’t tell the crowds out in front because… they are having lot’s of fun… digging around in all the shite! "
I have lots of suspicions about who did or didn’t do what, what happened and what didn’t happen and so on. What I don’t have (or what I can’t find) is hard fact to back up those suspicions right now.
I’m waiting for the puppet to fart again. The question is in which remote media outlet will that info appear.
Is it just one big charade? Not really in the sense as you mean it. They knew from day one that the only real and effective option for killing offshore wells is a relief well or two. Lots of people have been banging this drum for a long time.
Every other option has a very high risk to it for failing. A lot of things particularly hinge around what damage might have been done to the well and to seabed and formations downhole, plus what they obviously knew about the status of the well beforehand.
Relief wells are going to take at least 3 months or more to drill. The tricky bit will be getting close enough to the original well bore to get enough heavy mud and eventually cement to areas where it will do some good. If they have to penetrate the old 7" casing then that will take more time to accomplish.
In the mean time they don’t want to be seen sitting around doing nothing for 3-4 months. Hence what we are seeing happening now out there.
Sometimes wells bridge themselves off on their own… but there are no guarantees.
[QUOTE=company man 1;36215]Kasol, I want to give you a special thanks for your contributions. You have provided some outstanding vids & reads. Thanks again.[/QUOTE]
Both KASOL and alvis have been good sources of info. There are lots of other people too giving good advice and passing around snippets etc… Even alcor with his ups and downs.
It is about time that I also say Thank You for your help.
Did the Top Kill bust the casing?
I don’t have a reliable internet connection so i couldn’t see the top kill ops on the day. I have to rely on what I hear and then dig around later for video clips and info etc. It’s like looking for a needle in a haystack!
I have not yet found any ROV footage showing the area around the wellhead during the top kill (not surprising really!). However, the best I have found is this link (someone posted a link to this site earlier thanks)
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/05/28/breaking-news-bp-dismantling-gulf-oil-spill-bop/
If you watch the video associated with [B]4:57 pm (plus som[B]e of[/B] the other videos above it)[/B]
it shows the “latter part”? of the top kill. You will see another flow occurring on the right hand side, and coming up from BELOW the ROV. That has to be coming from somewhere on the stack or wellhead area. (It could be a bust hose… but very unlikely).
Be careful how you interpret the comments made on this site… the guy is trying to be helpful, but is making some wild and inaccurate statements.
[QUOTE=Alf;36216]Don’t give me too much credit. Like the rest of you I am working from very little and very poor information.
I don’t know about it being a sick joke, but you are right, there is a lot of covering up going on. It’s evident from discussions in this forum and some others I’ve looked at, plus I’m also hearing it from other sources and contacts.
…“Up front & sincere”… give me a break. Their propaganda machine kicked in on day one. Their own internal policies say do not give statements/info to the media or the public etc.
So what you get is some carefully worded semblance of the truth, but not much. In this particular case, because it’s so big an event, their disinformation machine appears to have kicked into overdrive, hiding the very few facts that do come out under tons of BS. You want it… you dig for it! Geobbels was a rank amateur compared to what we’re seeing here.
In an earlier post I said something like…
"It’s just yet another example of the puppet amusing the crowds, and occasionally it farts with a bit of info…
but hey, don’t tell the crowds out in front because… they are having lot’s of fun… digging around in all the shite! "
I have lots of suspicions about who did or didn’t do what, what happened and what didn’t happen and so on. What I don’t have (or what I can’t find) is hard fact to back up those suspicions right now.
I’m waiting for the puppet to fart again. The question is in which remote media outlet will that info appear.
Is it just one big charade? Not really in the sense as you mean it. They knew from day one that the only real and effective option for killing offshore wells is a relief well or two. Lots of people have been banging this drum for a long time.
Every other option has a very high risk to it for failing. A lot of things particularly hinge around what damage might have been done to the well and to seabed and formations downhole, plus what they obviously knew about the status of the well beforehand.
Relief wells are going to take at least 3 months or more to drill. The tricky bit will be getting close enough to the original well bore to get enough heavy mud and eventually cement to areas where it will do some good. If they have to penetrate the old 7" casing then that will take more time to accomplish.
In the mean time they don’t want to be seen sitting around doing nothing for 3-4 months. Hence what we are seeing happening now out there.
Sometimes wells bridge themselves off on their own… but there are no guarantees.[/QUOTE]
Thank you for your honesty & your common sense approach. Now I’m going to throw out some good old antithesis. I admit this thing is really starting to get to me. I feel like I’m in the audience of some kind of weird Twilight Zone, Sherlock Holmes melowdrama & I have no influence over the outcome & the tragedy is I know how this will affect good friends who live & work down these bayous & in these marshes every day. It will also change this industry forever.
I am going to ask some questions & throw out some really crazy sounding whack theories about this mess. My first question is why run rupture discs for 16"casing & not design a cement job to cover the casing shoe between it & the production string? Why run rupture discs in the 16" casing for any reason? How could a simulation not have been run showing a worst case scenario which would have included BHP migration to the upper casings & the hanger ? Why hang off the production casing to a surface casing string without some type of protection in the form of good cement? How could they possibly call for a cement job of this type at this depth with these types of temps & pressure?
Is it possible these people are this stupid? Although I have seen plenty of that since 4/20/10 I still can’t fathom this amount of stupidity & incompetence. Therefore I find myself asking the following questions. Was this possibly an act of terrorism ? Could someone within this company have actually devised a plan to put themselves in the right place at the right time to do the maximum amount of damage to the United States that could be done without a bomb? Could this have been planned to put a wedge in U.S. British relations & turn our staunchest ally into an enemy ? I would have called myself crazy for even thinking this 2 weeks ago, but as crazy as this thing is getting, it is becoming clear that this needs to be considered a possibility that must be investigated with all fervor.
Could this be part of some twisted criminal minded scheme by someone to sell off BP stock, short the stock & then take control of the company when the prices fell, not realizing that the damage done would cause the certain death of this company ? This is another nutty sounding theory that as whack as it sounds needs to be investigated with all haste & sincerity.
One thing is for certain in my mind. That is there was a crime committed concerning MC 252 Macondo#1 on & before 4/20/10. The question is whether it was a crime of negligence by reason of incompetence or was it possibly worse than that ? I know I have this week seen Doug Settles tell CNN that the only flow coming out of Macondo #1 was out of the cut riser when there has been visual proof offered up that the well is leaking from the sea floor along with news from BP sources that the well was flowing outside of the casing. They have known this information for at least 9 days & maybe a lot longer than that & still choose to thumb us in the eye. There are some serious questions that need some straight answers real soon or this region will be going wild wild west pretty soon. Now we have the makings of a perfect storm two weeks away ? Are you kidding me ? I for one will be very interested in hearing what Obama has to say Tuesday night. I never thought I would hear myself say that either.
[QUOTE=Alf;36218]Did the Top Kill bust the casing?
I don’t have a reliable internet connection so i couldn’t see the top kill ops on the day. I have to rely on what I hear and then dig around later for video clips and info etc. It’s like looking for a needle in a haystack!
I have not yet found any ROV footage showing the area around the wellhead during the top kill (not surprising really!). However, the best I have found is this link (someone posted a link to this site earlier thanks)
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/05/28/breaking-news-bp-dismantling-gulf-oil-spill-bop/
If you watch the video associated with [B]4:57 pm (plus som[B]e of[/B] the other videos above it)[/B]
it shows the “latter part”? of the top kill. You will see another flow occurring on the right hand side, and coming up from BELOW the ROV. That has to be coming from somewhere on the stack or wellhead area. (It could be a bust hose… but very unlikely).
Be careful how you interpret the comments made on this site… the guy is trying to be helpful, but is making some wild and inaccurate statements.[/QUOTE]
Alf, Bigmoose had good footage of the groud busting open that evening & when I identified it htere were people on here calling me nuts. What else is new? Maybe he can dig it up. I can’t take any more of this tonight. Going to take a couple of aspirin & check out.
[QUOTE=TroubledByThis;36139]I’ve made 8 Youtube videos on this subject since May 24th. The latest has to do with Anglo - Iranian Oil Company, aka BP. Earlier ones dealt with images of gas jetting out … set to Buffalo Springfield, Godzilla set to Highway 61 and All Along the Watchtower. I made followups. I never had a thanks here yet for one video I made. Thanks guys.
I was suggesting a casing blowout a week ago … and I referred here to the BOP work thrust in our faces to watch as a mere “robot show” and diversion by "slight of hand."
Youtube has given me one strike for copyright violations. My videos are never featured, not even in the search engines by key word tags. Two more strikes for any reason any time and I am out. They kill real messengers. Most people “producing” videos on Youtube just copy and upload. Most writers just copy YT links. My video edits attempt to connect the dots and form missing BIG pictures.
We’re headed into a world of sheite. Anybody play chess here? Maybe we are only pawns in someone elses game. BP has been sacrificed in this game as perhaps a knight. God save the King/Queen. I set my course and see the BMF’s all around me now. I told you then we’re dealing with sociopathic gangs at the helm. A big storm is coming. Good luck, captains! Thanks for having discussions.
//youtu.be/ahQc1I1jG_k
[/QUOTE]
Just so you know, I would have thanked you for your first video if I knew where the “thank user” button is.
Also, re this latest video, the stuff about Saudi Arabia giving Israel permission to use its airspace for a preemptive strike is entirely false. Purely an unfounded rumor that got repeated before being checked. And thank god, that is absolutely the last thing we need right now.
http://www.dp-news.com/pages/detail.aspx?l=2&articleId=41840
[QUOTE=alvis;36057]Here is BP’s Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response Plan. It’s a fairly large file at 60mb.
http://www.mms.gov/DeepwaterHorizon/BP_Regional_OSRP_Redactedv2.pdf[/QUOTE]
Redactedv2… ie edited version Number 2! It’s interesting to see that for some reason they have blanked out numerous (if not all) references to the Macondo well and some other things.
Why has this document been edited by bp??
The original is posted here for anyone who may want to compare the differences.
[QUOTE=company man 1;36223]Alf, Bigmoose had good footage of the groud busting open that evening & when I identified it htere were people on here calling me nuts. What else is new? Maybe he can dig it up. I can’t take any more of this tonight. Going to take a couple of aspirin & check out.[/QUOTE]
Thanks.
Bigmoose, over to you…?
[QUOTE=alcor;36126]This may well create a new flow path when the ball joint wears out due to the downward force/friction created by the movement.[/QUOTE]
Got to agree.
Plus… there will likely be a huge amount of sand and other solids contained within that oil flow as this flow is uncontrolled. it will only be a matter of time before steel that is exposed to that flowpath errodes away.
1 month down and counting.
[QUOTE=pumpjack hand;36059]They could lower and drag huge free water knockouts through the underwater oil plumes. Or since the Coast Guard Academy is just a few miles up river from where they build large subs at Electric Boat, maybe a fleet of submarine free water knockouts will start to look more interesting,
Subsea oil transport 1971 OTC
http://www.onepetro.org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=OTC-1425-MS&soc=OTC
US patent submariner tanker 1971
http://www.google.com/patents?hl=en&lr=&vid=USPAT3922985&id=4u4xAAAAEBAJ&oi=fnd&dq=submarine+oil+transport&printsec=abstract#v=onepage&q=submarine%20oil%20transport&f=false
scrapped plan to use nuclear powered subs for underwater drilling
http://www.barentsobserver.com/russia-plans-to-use-nuclear-powered-drilling-submarine-in-the-arctic.4542476.html
scrapped plan to use de-commissioned subs for oil transport
http://www.fishingnj.org/artoilsub.htm
http://www.ckb-rubin.ru/eng/project/otherp/uwaters/index.htm
http://www.bellona.org/english_import_area/international/russia/navy/northern_fleet/vessels/29577
sub tanker idea presented to congress
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=932&dat=19811110&id=ssELAAAAIBAJ&sjid=ulUDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5539,1318435
sub transport barge
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122238350/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0[/QUOTE]
When I first saw your ideas pumpjack… I looked at the links above, and thought… hmmn, novel idea, but where would they get the subs from? I filed it into the good idea NOT PRACTICAL drawer and moved on.
Today, I briefly managed to see a live video ROV feed from Macondo and a light came on.
Some years ago, I was involved with a well where we had a really huge and humungous water flow after setting 20" casing. The ROV couldn’t see squat for a good 20metres around the wellhead in all 360 degree directions. ie zero visibility. The outcome was we finally gave up and abandoned the well as water started to erupt elsewhere on the seabed.
However, in trying to get to grips with this beast, we tried several “space cadet ideas” with the main aim of blasting the flow away from the wellhead so that we could get a visual look at the wellhead and problem we were dealing with and try to figure out a way forward.
One of the things we tried was this jet prop tool. Basically a ship’s thruster on the end of drillpipe. It belts out a tremendous wash/turbulence.
It won’t do anything to stop the oil leaking from Macondo… but it may help in breaking up surface slicks and subsurface plumes allowing them to degrade quicker.
Thanks for lodging an idea in my mind.
Time now to see if bp will actually still talk to me??
pics are attached for info
[QUOTE=Alf;36226]Thanks. Bigmoose, over to you…?[/QUOTE]
Gents, being retired from the first career, I only work 2 or 3 days/week; but I have to go in today in like 5 minutes. I’ll find it if your guys don’t in +7 hours from this post time.
What Company Man 1 references is a post I made to a linked video I found on another gents site that looked like Hercules threw giant handfuls of #57 limestone into the sea. They were really moving and made it a long distance; then it looked like 5 gallon pails of set concrete falling in front of the ROV… it was during the top kill; If you search my nick and that time frame, it should show up. Sorry I have to run this morning… prime client and all that… ref 6:55 AM Eastern Time
[QUOTE=bigmoose;36231]Gents, being retired from the first career, I only work 2 or 3 days/week; but I have to go in today in like 5 minutes. I’ll find it if your guys don’t in +7 hours from this post time.
What Company Man 1 references is a post I made to a linked video I found on another gents site that looked like Hercules threw giant handfuls of #57 limestone into the sea. They were really moving and made it a long distance; then it looked like 5 gallon pails of set concrete falling in front of the ROV… it was during the top kill; If you search my nick and that time frame, it should show up. Sorry I have to run this morning… prime client and all that… ref 6:55 AM Eastern Time[/QUOTE]
Thanks bigmoose.
I have managed to find it.
[QUOTE=Corky;36190]Actually it has been mentioned since day one on this thread if you go back & look. Several folks who had worked with the guys on the drill floor that night expressed their disbelief that people of their training & caliber would have missed the indications. I don’t think anyone is disputing that there were some mistakes made by many of the people involved, including the drill crew possibly. The point we are trying to make is that those mistakes were made after the drill crew was placed in a no-win situation by the people who designed the well plan & were running the show.
I appreciate the way that, when each of your attempts to steer the blame & focus away from BP is shot down, you make a series of resonable posts to lull us into a sense of security prior to slowly going further & further in each new post towards the next attempt at pointing the finger elsewhere. First it was the BOP (Cameron or TO), then Don Virdine and now it was all the drill crew’s fault. Thanks for playing, I look forward to seeing who gets blamed next.
Oh. . . . . just read your next post & it would appear that those who lost their lives are not forgotten by you. You remember them well enough to now try to lay all the blame at their feet since they are not here to defend themselves & it would appear that you mistakenly believe the people here will stand by without taking you to task for it.
As CM1 stated earlier “please don’t do that” we are not buying what you are selling.[/QUOTE]
There have been many failures on this rig, and each company has had a share of the blame. Many of you opt for BP having exclusive blame. I have attempted to show that there are more deficient parties involved with the demise of the DWH. I have tried to understand what role each party has had in the blowout, which many of you do not appreciate. But, MMS still approved this casing design conversion.
[QUOTE=Bob S;36192]Thank you Alcor for arguing my points. btw, “When the mud pumps were shut down the SPP read 1450 psi.” This is why I asked you for the time on the strip log because it was 1250 psi when pumping stopped not 1450. Best to doc your assertions. and do all a favor and reign in the finger wagging.[/QUOTE]
Pumps off at 2000 the SPP read just under 1500 psi. Look at the logger’s report. It’s also been mentioned in the congressional hearings.
[QUOTE=alcor;36235]Pumps off at 2000 the SPP read just under 1500 psi. Look at the logger’s report. It’s also been mentioned in the [B]congressional hearings[/B].[/QUOTE]
Are we all looking at the same charts here??
@ 20:00hrs the red SPP curve on the chart I have is just UNDER the 3rd black scale mark. ie just UNDER 1500psi.
Just what they did up until 20:00hrs is not clear. So you may want to keep that in mind.
[QUOTE=pumpjack hand;36197]I thank you Alcor when you address the issues technically, I don’t like wasting my time with pie throwing, by anyone. You’ve made some good technical points, but keep in mind politically that the GoM operators have been given incentives to drill for the last 15 years, the government doesn’t know how to write the new rule book even though you say they should. The SPE 10/2009 paper I read today about technical challenges in the GoM written by five Petrobras engineers said nobody knows, but we make educated guesses. So at this point maybe the MMS is kinda like what the BP Sr Drllg Eng said about a CBL, they can tell you when it’s good, but not necessarily when it’s bad. In that spirit, BP should have been a lot more conservative re: design, implementation, and testing the long string, but they decided to roll the dice and they lost. That was then, from now on the MMS will be a lot more heavy handed, like you are used to in the North Sea.
edited: It’s understandable you have a soft spot for BP.[/QUOTE]
There are deficiencies everywhere we examine what happened in this well. Everwhere you look. We need to open our eyes and see it all.
I am not defending BP. I’m trying to examine all the failings. I may get some wrong.
To move forward and get everyone back to work is no quick fix. We can’t have a repeat of this incident, and if it takes analysis which is unpalatable to many on this forum you can be sure it’ll be covered by the official investigation later on.
One thing is for sure, no-one’s been watching BP. And, that’s the role of the MMS. And if it hasn’t been their role up to now, then US control of offshore drilling has been seriously lacking.
I suppose MMS should join BP and TO for their share of the blame.
And what of Halliburton? My opinion, no blame whatsoever. Now I’m going to be accused of being a Halliburton spy.
And all who have been involved in HPHT wells will admit to hairy moments!! With all Operators.
[QUOTE=alcor;36237]There are deficiencies everywhere we examine what happened in this well. Everwhere you look. We need to open our eyes and see it all.
I am not defending BP. I’m trying to examine all the failings. I may get some wrong.
To move forward and get everyone back to work is no quick fix. We can’t have a repeat of this incident, and if it takes analysis which is unpalatable to many on this forum you can be sure it’ll be covered by the official investigation later on.
One thing is for sure, no-one’s been watching BP. And, that’s the role of the MMS.[/QUOTE]
I hate to point this out… but take a look at the testament of Mr Hafle at the USCG hearings. I’ll let you judge for yourself how effective the regulatory authorities are.
[QUOTE=Alf;36239]I hate to point this out… but take a look at the testament of Mr Hafle at the USCG hearings. I’ll let you judge for yourself how effective the regulatory authorities are.[/QUOTE]
I don’t even need to look. The fact that BP have been left to organise and clean up this mess while being heckled by the President shows that everyone is out to get their money as a matter of priority. What does this say about a society? Gov’t should be 100% involved with the clean-up and advancing ideas for ways in which the public can help. What are the President’s words during this crisis?
Something about putting a boot to BP’s neck!!! (Charming).
BP will pay!
If this is leadership, then we are in for a very dark period ahead. The truth is that Obama is way out of his territory on drilling and production.
Now we have the coastguard threatening BP! When do they all get together and decide on a common goal to attack the clean-up.