Presumably reporting is mandatory with fines for non-compliance. Collecting data typically is something bureaucracies do very well.
The bureaucrats say there is something approaching 20 million illegal immigrants in the US. A Study by a non profit (maybe it was the Pugh Trust) put the figure at closer to 35 million illegal immigrants. If true, that’s about 1/10th of the entire US population.
I would expect at least that much Percentage of error in the Covid-19 count.
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An explanation as to why the mortality rate difference between men (62% of deaths) and women (38% of deaths) could lie in a few factors. Most data is from China where most cases have been. Smoking among males there is quite high. (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women.) Smoking causes respiratory issues. The virus mainly kills from pneumonia which is more fatal in smokers. Therefore the death rate in China and males in particular is higher than it would be in a non-smoking culture.
In the United States we smoke less than in China. (Male, 15.6%. Female, 12.0%) If the theory is correct the mortality rate in the United States by sex should be about even. The mortality rate in general should be lower due to a lower rate of smoking.
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Hopefully the mortality rate is lower in the US in cities with cleaner air & less smog. China with its 1.4 billion people with very few air pollution regulations is notorious for causing otherwise healthy people to have respiratory problems. Many of the Chinese have pre existing conditions caused by where they live.
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A Yale epidemiologist estimates 35,000 US deaths, and that is a conservative estimate based on available information.
Right now here are some rates of increase, specifically time to increase total cases by a factor of ten. Granularity is one day. I’ll start with Italy as they’re obviously out of control:
Italy ten days (900-9k). Log curve of total cases over the last week is straight.
USA nine days (68-704) Ditto slight decrease last two days, previously straight
Iran nine days (700-7k) definite fall last five days.
France eight days (140-1400) slight fall last two days, slight rise earlier in week
Spain seven days (120-1200) slight increase last day, slightly falling earlier
SK and China seem to have it whipped:
South Korea 14 days (800-7500) <-- Note that rate from 6500-7500 extrapolates back to about thirty days…
China forty days (8000-81k) <-- Rate from 80k to 81k extrapolates back to ~900 days.
Unfortunately these are the only countries that worldometers dot info gives retrospective data on. Also unfortunately the US has actually tested fewer than two thousand people, so our numbers are undoubtedly considerably under-reported. But it appears to me that as a first approximation we’re doing just a little worse than Italy just now.
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Of closed cases (recovered or died) the present rates are:
France 71% (highest since 23 Feb and rising steeply. First death over 23 days ago)
US 63% (highest to date and rising. Quite early, first death ten days ago)
Spain 50% (fluctuating; very early, first death a week ago)
Italy 39% (highest since 28 Feb and rising. First death 17 days ago)
Iran 9% (lowest to date and falling since 23 Feb. First death 19 days ago)
SK 17% (falling since 3 Mar. First death 19 days ago)
China 5% (falling steadily since before 02 Feb)
This is fascinating, and to me scary. All of the countries where the first death is on the graph showed an initial very steep rise, then a plateau and steep fall past 50% before taking on a more gradual curve. I presume the rest were likewise.
Given that, France is very disturbing, because their fatality rate was down to 20% on 15 Feb, falling steadily to 9% on 25 Feb. It’s been rising ever since and two days ago crossed 50% again on the way up.
I also offer the opinion that Iran is likely lying like a rug. Their rate crossed 50% (on the way down) thirteen days ago and has been falling smoothly for the last eleven days.
ETA: France only has thirty total deaths and twelve recovered (and we have 27 and 15 recovered) so I’d put very low confidence in death rate extrapolations. China, Italy, Iran and South Korea are the only countries with more than 50 deaths.
And Iran is claiming ~2400 recovered on a total of ~7000. That’s more than anyone except China. It’s three times as many as Italy and around nine times as many as South Korea, both with similar total cases. I still smell a rat.
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Very calm but serious interview with an epidemiologist (UK Channel 4).
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From what I’ve seen a critical factor is if the number of serious cases overwhelms the capacity of the health care system or not. Capacity is shown here as the yellow line.
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This is why the United States will be fucked. Too many Americans feel the rules don’t apply to them:
Missouri man breaks coronavirus self-quarantine to attend father-daughter dance.
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Here’s a graph showing death rate per 1000,000 for two cities during the Spanish flu, Philadelphia and St. Louis.
St Louis took strong “social distancing” measures early while Philadelphia did not.
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This may be teaching Grandma to suck eggs, but it’s a lovely illustrated explanation of how epidemics grow – and stop.
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A lilypad doubles in size each day.
In 28 days, the lilypad will cover the entire pond.
Question :
In how many days will the pond be half covered?
I know, Mister Wizard! Call on me! Over here! 
In 28½ days… if in the morning of day 29, a hungry manatee passes by.
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How many times would you need to fold a typical sheet of paper (albeit of infinite width) before the folded paper is thick enough to reach the moon?
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A Post It note is about three thou thick…
For a 0.1 mm thick sheet of paper, folding it 42 times is enough to reach the moon, because of the exponential rate the thickness increases with each fold.
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I would give anything if these nasty muddafugs I am sailing with would cover their mouths when they cough…