I was looking up the relative strength of the Taiwanese and Chinese air forces. The Chinese AF is much bigger, of course. 4X the size. But the Taiwanese seem to be making the most of what they have.
And in reading all this I came to realize a fundamental difference I had missed between Hong Kong and Taiwan. Hong Kong was defenseless, and were already onboard with Chinese assimilation, although on their own terms. Whereas Taiwan (ROC, whatever you want to call it) has been preparing for a Chinese attack for 75 years. A whole different mindset.
They have trouble getting aircraft because China views this as a provocation. But apparently the same doesn’t hold true for missiles. So Taiwan has been stocking up on those, and hiding the missile batteries. In 1940, during the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe was 3x the size of the RAF, and the British still won. Maybe the Taiwanese are counting on fighting on their home turf, as well as missiles, as giving them a similar advantage over numbers. And the Chinese would still need to capture Taipei to capture the island, which means an amphibious assault, which is always hazardous.
But no matter which was you look at it, the only way Taiwan would win is with American intervention. Very interesting that NATO, an “Atlantic” organization, is openly talking about Taiwan nowadays.