The Tropical Disturbance over the Caribbean sea is now moving into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea where climatology suggests is an area favorable for tropical development during June. A broad area of low pressure has developed at the surface with a minimum pressure of about 1008mb which suggests that this system could develop into a tropical depression on Friday with winds of 25-30kts possible in some of the squalls.
Friday Morning Update: This morning finds the surface pressure still dropping, now down to at least 1006mb as 93L moves over the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC now gives it a 70% chance of becoming a depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The present conditions can already support winds of 25-30kts in squalls so it won’t take much to kick this one up a notch.
This could be the first taste of what a storm can do to the Gulf “Oil Leak”
Keep us updated Fred.