When or if the GOM oil patch will recover?


#1

Does anyone want to share their thoughts on when or if the Oilpatch-GOM is going to recover from this “recession”. Are the majors going to take their interest foriegn in an effort to avoid additional taxes in the GOM? or are we going to see things gradually get better?


#2

Whenever the current adminstration wants to get out from under the OPEC yoke.

I don’t understand the fixation with and affection toward the Arabs by our government. We could turn it around with some help from the White House and Congress.

We’ve got enough oil and gas in Louisiana, Alaska and Texas to supply our country for centuries…not to mention the potential in Florida and California.
It’s not going to happen. We’ll remain hostages to the Arabs as long as the current political atmosphere prevails and the “Greens” have power.

But it’s OK to dream.

Nemo


#3

[quote=Capt. Nemo;18989]Whenever the current adminstration wants to get out from under the OPEC yoke.

I don’t understand the fixation with and affection toward the Arabs by our government. We could turn it around with some help from the White House and Congress.

We’ve got enough oil and gas in Louisiana, Alaska and Texas to supply our country for centuries…not to mention the potential in Florida and California.
It’s not going to happen. We’ll remain hostages to the Arabs as long as the current political atmosphere prevails and the “Greens” have power.

But it’s OK to dream.

Nemo[/quote]

As I understand it, most of the foreign oil that U.S. Oil Companies buy is sold to other countries. We actually only use a small portion domestically. If we used all the oil that the U.S. Oil Companies purchase, we would have a line of tankers in our waters waiting to discharge to our very few refineries a thousand miles long. But you are correct Nemo, if we were to reduce our dependency of what we do use, we would all be working again. I think that one of the biggest reasons for the slow down in domestic exploration and drilling is most of the Major Oil companies are afraid to commit in light of the influx of the devolopment and implementation of alternative enegy resources. I don’t believe that employment in the oilfield will ever be back to what it once was but will reach a plateau in time that will put about two thirds of us back to work. When that will happen depends alot on the general economy not just our fraction ( Maritime Industry) of the overall world economy…as you know, things are bad all over…the rich get richer and the poor get poorer…


#4

Talk around the office is April before we see any major upswing in activity.

Really it relies on a few things. The main one being that fact that natural gas is so cheap. The oil companies need gas to be around $6 MBTU, it’s been sitting at $3 for ever and just got to $4. But with a light winter forcast and the fact that I read an article saying that US storage capacity is the fullest it’s ever been and real close to being to capacity is not good. Gas wont come back till China sees a major upswing manufacturing.

The other is the climate bill. If that passes we are all fucked.

I never got the whole lets export our oil production were it’s not subject to our environmental laws and regulations. State run oil company’s = ecological disaster. But hey if the hippies can’t see it it must not happen right?


#5

We need more refineries in Beaumont, Galveston, Mobile, Long Beach, Norfolk, Morehead City and many other locations.

Why do we prostrate ourselves to the middle east? Here in central Texas, in the midst of the Barnett Shale, the companies (Chesapeake Corporation, et all) have shut off the valves to the gas wells. Is it really cheaper to buy it from Kuwait or Saudi Arabia than from Granbury or Stephenville?

I think not.

Nemo


#6

The oil business is a strange and sensitive business. All comes down to money. The GOM started to slow down almost overnight when it looked like Obama was going to come into power. This happened just after the presidential debate. Why the change? There is a strong push for renewable energy by the current administration along with the fact that they cut a lot of the tax incentives towards the oil/gas companies.

I never thought I would have seen a slowdown as happened in the 80’s. That was mainly because of the Iran / Iraq war and the fact that Arab nations became somewhat greedy and over-produced. This produced a glut even with the US asking the Saudi’s to slow down production.

It mainly depends on supply and demand. However, I agree with the above concerning the “Climate Bill”. There is production and drilling going on in the GOM, but it is in Ultra-Deep Water. As for what is going on with “Shelf Work”, I don’t think the domestic oil producers see a financial benefit to produce.

Something is happening in Congress that is effecting everything offshore, I too would like to know more about it.

I will be following this thread.

KJ


#7

[quote=Jemplayer;18992]Talk around the office is April before we see any major upswing in activity.

Really it relies on a few things. The main one being that fact that natural gas is so cheap. The oil companies need gas to be around $6 MBTU, it’s been sitting at $3 for ever and just got to $4. But with a light winter forcast and the fact that I read an article saying that US storage capacity is the fullest it’s ever been and real close to being to capacity is not good. Gas wont come back till China sees a major upswing manufacturing.

The other is the climate bill. If that passes we are all fucked.

I never got the whole lets export our oil production were it’s not subject to our environmental laws and regulations. State run oil company’s = ecological disaster. But hey if the hippies can’t see it it must not happen right?[/quote]
I think you are on the money,add to that the speculation that drove the prices artificially high, and we haven’t seen the interest come back.It is all economics.Renewable resources are decades away,and look at what those stocks have done,most have fallen farther than the oil related stocks…Leigh


#8

I’d go with when gas goes above $3.50 which won’t happen till we start buying more disposable junk from China. I better stop, my eye’s starting to twitch


#9

[QUOTE=CapnGeorgeT;18986]Does anyone want to share their thoughts on when or if the Oilpatch-GOM is going to recover from this “recession”. Are the majors going to take their interest foriegn in an effort to avoid additional taxes in the GOM? or are we going to see things gradually get better?[/QUOTE]

This slowdown depends on what goes on overseas. If Iran gets a bit punchy, then I think the GOM will see a strong rebound. This slow down right now is more political than I have ever seen or read about in the history of the GOM. Obama’s administration is really pushing for clean / renewable energy. They believe this will pull the country out of the slump. Other than that, if we have an active hurricane season next year, then the Gulf will pick back up. This is third major slowdown I have seen in the last 12 years.

If there is not a renewed interest in oil, and especially natural gas, then I think the GOM is going to be slow for some time. At least during this administration.


#10

I first started sailing in the oil patch in Dec 1969. I’ve cycled in and out of the oilfield several times until I was finally fed up in the early 80s. There were several causes for the cycles. The oil embargo in the early 70s, the return of equipment and vessels after the peak of the North Sea development, over building. The biggest problem has been and still is congress with the lease sales.

A prime example of the on going stupidity is the eastern Gulf. In the mid 70s, large reserves were found off the panhandle. The find was too high in sulphur to produce at that time so the wells were never produced. With the technology now, it’s cheaper to extract sulphur from oil than it is to mine it. Just get it to Pascagoula…

No chance of a lease sale until the next gas line.


#11

Maybe I’m a simpleton but I believe it all boils down to economics / profitability. The oil companies are all about the bottom line, like any other business. When it becomes profitable, they will produce. The same thing goes for “alternative” energy sources. We have the technology to produce all kinds of energy but no one is willing to do it on a large scale until it becomes profitable. From a profitability standpoint as long as fossil fuels stay relatively cheap alternative energy doesn’t make sense.


#12

You’re exactly right. When it’s cheaper to import than it is to produce it, the oil companies are going for the profit. (I like my dividends also) A sensible energy policy might… oh well when pigs fly…


#13

I agree on the last part especially. Some places like where I live windmills won’t work because of all the pine trees preventing a constant air circulation and solar energy won’t work because of all the trees blocking the sunlight at least in the central part of the island. On the West end, plenty of sun and wind but nobody lives there during most of the year. The possible savings would not justify the cost to convert…


#14

HOLY Sancho Panza, Don Quixote!!windmills??propose that ole’ Pickens put them up on platforms on the “shelf” in the GoM…particularly right off the coast of Florida!!


#15

I guess the term “windmills” shows my age and background. We didn’t have “wind generators” on the farm back in the day…