I have been reading a lot of the articles that c.capt and a few others have been posting and it seems like things are slowing down. Do you all think that even though they may be slowing down the jobs will still be there, or are we looking at a straight bust and massive layoffs? I have been trying hard to get down there, but I dont want to leave my low paying but stable job if im only going to get laid off in 6 months.
For what its worth im planning on being down there knocking on doors March 10 - 14.
I can think of no reason why the gulf would be headed towards a bust again so soon. Even if it is headed towards a down-turn it still won’t be anything like the last one or two (if you count “the great recession” and the deepwater horizon outfall as two separate periods of relative inactivity). American petroleum is more powerful than it ever has been, the Jones Act tanker market is on the rebound, charterers are paying record-breaking day-rates, the list goes on. All the oil has to come from somewhere.
Sure, there are places inland where OSV’s and drill rigs can’t go (i.e. fracking, Texas oil fields, even California, etc…) BUT right now with the renaissance of the American petroleum industry this country and its various industries are going to want to exploit every possible source of petroleum that we can get our hands on. No matter how much oil flows out of the mid-west we will ALWAYS need the gulf. It is too big of a petroleum resource to ignore. The way things are going it looks as if the gulf will be as essential an asset as it ever has been. For those reasons I would strongly disagree with anyone who says that the gulf offshore industry is headed towards another down-turn.
Try reading all those articles again for comprehension. Most of the cut backs are not centered on deepwater. The little bit of chat about deepwater is older equipment.
Mexico just opened up, don’t think that won’t drive some more business into the gulf. And if a Republican house Senate and president come around soon… It’s gonna be off the chain dawg!
If you want long term in the oil patch… Focus on deepwater. That’s 280 and up mud boats or get in construction repair vessels. There are numerous ways to get into something future proof, but those are the easiest. Stay off of anything smaller or anything without DP 2 and you will be fine.
“They’ll be scaling back on some exploration, like the Arctic or the deepest waters with limited infrastructure … So places like the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil will continue to see a lot of activity, but frontier regions will see some scaling back,” he said.
[QUOTE=tugboatchief;131195]“They’ll be scaling back on some exploration, like the Arctic or the deepest waters with limited infrastructure … So places like the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil will continue to see a lot of activity, but frontier regions will see some scaling back,” he said.
Full article can be found on another thread.[/QUOTE]
I heard from a mutual friend of Nicki Collins’ that Chouest is moving a bunch of their stuff back to the states from Brazil. I don’t know that this means that they are pulling out of Brazil, that would be jumping to conclusions, but it is an interesting event none-the-less. Maybe it just goes back to what I said before about the US and the gulf being increasingly important assets to the American economy. Why work in Brazil when you can do the same thing for the same amount of money right here? If there’s plenty of business to go around the laissez les bon temps roulez!
[QUOTE=Bayrunner;131190]I have been reading a lot of the articles that c.capt and a few others have been posting and it seems like things are slowing down. Do you all think that even though they may be slowing down the jobs will still be there, or are we looking at a straight bust and massive layoffs? I have been trying hard to get down there, but I dont want to leave my low paying but stable job if im only going to get laid off in 6 months.
For what its worth im planning on being down there knocking on doors March 10 - 14.[/QUOTE]
I recommend that you make the move soon. Any slow down in hiring is probably a year or two away, but getting hired sooner is better than later. Layoffs of any significance are unlikely for at least several years. Contracts have been signed and current drilling plans are too far along to change course now. A slow down might be occur in a few years, perhaps not for 10 years or more. The Gulf of Mexico is the best and most reliable offshore oil prospect, with the lowest costs, anywhere in the world. It will be the last place to slow down.
As others have mentioned, Mexico has ended Pemex’s monopoly. Mexico is rich in natural resources, but the people are poor due solely to gross mismanagement and corruption. They are tired off that. They are letting in foreign companies to explore for and produce oil (without Pemex in their way) on the scale necessary to lift Mexico out of poverty.
Brazil has a similar problem with the Petrobras monopoly, silly work rules, and a crazy legal system. In spite of all its oil, Brazil remains a difficult and very unpredictable place to try to earn a profit. I am told by a reliable source that ECO is bringing seven boats back to the Gulf from Brazil. Hornbeck has already brought most, if not all, of its boats back from Brazil.
The problems in Africa are so well know that there is no need to repeat them.
China and India continue to grow and consume more and more oil.
There are only two certainties in life, the rest is a gamble. The Gulf looks like a very worthwhile bet to me.
[QUOTE=Bayrunner;131207]Thanks for easing my paranoia. I have been planning on this move for 6 months or more, maybe now that its crunch time I am over thinking things.[/QUOTE]
Glad to hear that, Bayrunner. I’ve been following your posts, and wish you the best of luck. You should do well.
But I never understood why you answered that phone call when you were by Atlanta. No caller ID…?
[QUOTE=water;131213]Glad to hear that, Bayrunner. I’ve been following your posts, and wish you the best of luck. You should do well.
But I never understood why you answered that phone call when you were by Atlanta. No caller ID…? :-)[/QUOTE]
I dont know either. I didnt want to potentially lose the job I already and possibly strike out in LA. Plus im trying very hard to give them a good notice and leave on good terms, they havent necessarily treated me good but they havent been bad to me either.
All you doomsday thinkers out there, settle down please. We are not looking into any type of hiring freeze, downturn in the industry, last time I looked oil was $102, with a forecast for the year of around $117! Most of the issue is with older units and clients wanting newbuilds. Some companies are even thinking of warm stacking deepwater rigs that come off contract in the next next couple months to wait out the slight decrease in day rates. Thats flexibility if they are willing to wait out this little hiccup in the market.
My dumbass booked a trip during the week of Mardi Gras. Not a bright move. I called the big players and they were vague on whether the office would have people there or not. I cancelled the trip. Going down next time off. March 30th I’ll head to NOLA. Looks like you’ll be there before me. Good luck.
I really think it’s a timing thing like a lot of the guys have been saying. One must be standing on the carpet when a spot opens up. I guess it’s kind of cool that in an age of digital everything…a personal appearance and a handshake can get you a job. It’s a big move for me as well. I’ve been working up to this for over 2.5 years. The GoM is like the Big League and its a new and daunting thing. You’ll do great and just remember that you are potentially leaving a sector that you will always be able to go back to at any time. Good luck Brother!
Stay loose.
[QUOTE=RubberRhib888;131247]…The GoM is like the Big League and its a new and daunting thing…[/QUOTE]
Unless you have been working the bumper boats at the fair your whole career you might be in for a let down… It’s a job, stupid money, and regular schedule for the most part, but don’t come down expecting to be infused with knowledge and learning…
Each company, and each boat within each company, will have varying degrees of competency… but you will probably bring more to the table than you think. It won’t take long to learn the mud boat lingo… It ain’t rocket science.
[QUOTE=RubberRhib888;131247]My dumbass booked a trip during the week of Mardi Gras. Not a bright move. I called the big players and they were vague on whether the office would have people there or not. I cancelled the trip. Going down next time off. March 30th I’ll head to NOLA. Looks like you’ll be there before me. Good luck.
I really think it’s a timing thing like a lot of the guys have been saying. One must be standing on the carpet when a spot opens up. I guess it’s kind of cool that in an age of digital everything…a personal appearance and a handshake can get you a job. It’s a big move for me as well. I’ve been working up to this for over 2.5 years. The GoM is like the Big League and its a new and daunting thing. You’ll do great and just remember that you are potentially leaving a sector that you will always be able to go back to at any time. Good luck Brother!
Stay loose.[/QUOTE]
I know chouest is closed Fat Tuesday. And they are doing orientation the follow week
[QUOTE=Bayrunner;131190]I have been reading a lot of the articles that c.capt and a few others have been posting and it seems like things are slowing down. Do you all think that even though they may be slowing down the jobs will still be there, or are we looking at a straight bust and massive layoffs? I have been trying hard to get down there, but I dont want to leave my low paying but stable job if im only going to get laid off in 6 months.[/QUOTE]
Actually, I have never posted anything about job cuts or even hiring freezes. What I have posted is that the energy majors are looking to cut costs in a very big way and expect that they will lean on their suppliers for goods and services hard to realize those savings. The question is how those suppliers effect cutting costs? I can see wage rollbacks coming. There is nowhere for a GoM captive workforce to go where the money would be half as good as in offshore energy and besides over 3/4 of the GoM mariners have never worked in any other sector of the industry so they would not find ready and open arms elsewhere. I can easily see 15 to 20% going back to the owners if the majors demand it.
just tossin a full can of brake cleaner in this here burn barrel…
Chouest is sending those boats back to America because they’re mostly being replaced with Vanuatu flagged boats built in Poland. A few went off contract when OGX went under, but not too many. I highly doubt they’re pulling out of Brasil. They by far have the lead on any American company in total boats there.
Chouest has their own shipyard building boats in Brazil for Brazilian work. They also have a DP training center there. They aren’t pulling out.
DP2 OSV work is at 100% utilization in the GoM so I’d imagine they are bringing boats back that they sent over after the Horizon slow down as the get new Brazilian and Polish builds over there.
The lady instructor, who IIRC is the head of their brazil DP school is one sharp cookie as well. Very personable and knows her shit front back and sideways. There is two reasons they are looking for people in brazil, one being the current growth!
