Under $35

[Smoke_em]

Oil price falls to fresh 11-year low

[B]Oil has continued its rollercoaster ride into the new year, with Brent crude falling below $35 a barrel for the first time in 11 years.[/B]
Brent crudesank by 4.2% to $34.88 a barrel, surpassing its late December fall, and taking the price to its lowest level since 1 July 2004.
The price of US crude dropped 3.3% to $34.77 a barrel.
The sharp falls followed a short-lived rally on Monday after Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic ties with Iran.
Analysts said fears over the worsening relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which had initially raised concerns about possible supply disruptions and boosted the oil price, had now been overtaken by pessimism over oil cartel Opec ever agreeing on a production ceiling.

[B]How low?[/B]

Historically, Opec has cut production to support prices. But led by Saudi Arabia, by far the group’s most powerful member, the group has resolutely refused to trim supply this time.
Rising tensions over Saudi Arabia’s execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr mean that any agreement is now deemed less likely than ever.
“With relations between Opec kingpins Saudi Arabia and Iran at a historic low point, it solidifies an already unlikely scenario that Opec might cut output,” said Barclays analyst Alia Moubayed.
Since mid-2014, oil prices have slumped 70% mainly because of oversupply. This in turn is largely due to US shale oil flooding the market.
At the same time, demand has fallen because of a slowdown in economic growth in China and Europe.
Iranian oil exports are also expected to rise later this year once Western sanctions against Tehran for its nuclear programme are lifted, increasing the oversupply of oil.
Opec is hoping that refusing to cut production will help to drive US shale producers out of business, believing that they will fall victim to lower prices long before its own members, and has forecast that prices will recover to $70 a barrel by 2020.
Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could go as low a $20 a barrel, but most analysts are expecting the price to stabilise in the second half of the year as supply from non-Opec nations slows and demand remains relatively robust.

[Mac-a-nac]

No worries… I see glowing sand in the future.

[Smoke_em]

Under $33 now

When will the bleeding stop?

[tugsailor]

The Saudis want to gain leverage over Iran and Syria, and blunt Russian influence in the Mid-East. They will pump harder and drive prices much lower for longer.

[c.captain]

@tugsailor;176771

The Saudis want to gain leverage over Iran and Syria, and blunt Russian influence in the Mid-East. They will pump harder and drive prices much lower for longer.

I have actually been trying not to post about this recently because some here seem to feel that I am gleeful over this ugly turn of events however that is not the case at all because I too am a loser with the crash in crude. The sad reality is that the picture is bleak and getting bleaker by the day. The projections for a year from today are hardly any higher. This is not good at all!

[catherder]

[QUOTE=tugsailor;176771]The Saudis want to gain leverage over Iran and Syria, and blunt Russian influence in the Mid-East. They will pump harder and drive prices much lower for longer.[/QUOTE]

Then there’s their population of restless, unemployed youth who may end up causing them problems if the welfare stops.

[tugsailor]

[QUOTE=catherder;176784]Then there’s their population of restless, unemployed youth who may end up causing them problems if the welfare stops.[/QUOTE]

That’s why they need to use that problematic youth as cannon fodder in Yemen, Syria, and Libya.

[Smoke_em]

I’ve lurked on this forum for a few years and read pretty much every thread but recently I’ve been compelled to post.

I’m deeply concerned about today’s youth… It seems to me that more and more kids nowadays expect certain things (car, house, vacations, etc) that they saw their parents have or the way some people live off of Facebook and media etc… yet don’t realize how much work and sacrifice it takes to get to that comfortable position.

Less and less nowadays do I see kids suck it up and work toward something, I do see a lot of complaining and a lot of pointing fingers. Everyone sees themselves as a down on their luck millionaire and it’s baffling to me.

When you don’t save for the future, when you spend every penny you have as soon as you get your check and have debt up to your eyeballs how do you expect to get anywhere? What is the millennial generation going to do when they reach retirement age?

I said that as a preface to this. Word around my grapevine is that people are finding it hard to get other jobs and others are sitting at the hall for months. This is highly concerning to me, not just me as an individual but as my generation.

We like to say that oh it’s a downturn and it’ll pick back up eventually… But this attitude of quitting when it gets hard, living for instant gratification etc that the younger generation is so inclined to do… If we don’t WORK to pick it up there’s no guarantee that it’ll go up and the gravy train will roll again.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that if you want to make the big bucks and you want to be successful then you also have to work for it and make it that way. Stop expecting things to be handed to you (expecting is the key word). (Mostly referring to young people).

I’d be interested to hear others opinions…

[Tugs]

[QUOTE=Smoke em;176826]I’ve lurked on this forum for a few years and read pretty much every thread but recently I’ve been compelled to post.

I’m deeply concerned about today’s youth… It seems to me that more and more kids nowadays expect certain things (car, house, vacations, etc) that they saw their parents have or the way some people live off of Facebook and media etc… yet don’t realize how much work and sacrifice it takes to get to that comfortable position.

Less and less nowadays do I see kids suck it up and work toward something, I do see a lot of complaining and a lot of pointing fingers. Everyone sees themselves as a down on their luck millionaire and it’s baffling to me.

When you don’t save for the future, when you spend every penny you have as soon as you get your check and have debt up to your eyeballs how do you expect to get anywhere? What is the millennial generation going to do when they reach retirement age?

I said that as a preface to this. Word around my grapevine is that people are finding it hard to get other jobs and others are sitting at the hall for months. This is highly concerning to me, not just me as an individual but as my generation.

We like to say that oh it’s a downturn and it’ll pick back up eventually… But this attitude of quitting when it gets hard, living for instant gratification etc that the younger generation is so inclined to do… If we don’t WORK to pick it up there’s no guarantee that it’ll go up and the gravy train will roll again.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that if you want to make the big bucks and you want to be successful then you also have to work for it and make it that way. Stop expecting things to be handed to you (expecting is the key word). (Mostly referring to young people).

I’d be interested to hear others opinions…[/QUOTE]

We were just talking about this and how the Younger Generation here in Central Florida where I live, have lousy work ethics. They all what to make the big bucks but are not willing to put in the time (Staying with one Company) and move up the ladder. Look at the movement to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour. If most of these kids ever had to deal with working under some of the old timers that I did when first starting out they would have run home to Mommy crying about the mean man that told them to suck it up and work.

Guys starting out think that if they do not have instantaneous contact with home 24/7 then they are not going to take the job. I am not saying that the old days were better but you have to admit that without all of the distractions of Facebook etc. all there was to do was work, eat or sleep. Guys would spend off time tracing or watching different operations to LEARN.

I was given a Brand New AE one trip. On this tug we did a lot of Tow Winch work and this guy had never handled a winch before so I was up any time the winch was running. Most of the time it worked out to be on the AE’s watch. One day we were working the winch in some shitty weather and time ran into my watch. I was running the winch while telling the AE why I was doing what and When. The AB tapped me on the shoulder and said that the AE had left the deck. We finished with the winch and went back inside to dry off. When I found the AE in the Galley, I asked him WHY DID YOU LEAVE? He said well I was off watch. The AB stepped in front of me as he thought I was going to do something stupid. I had the Captain call him up to the Wheel House and I told him that as he walked off deck (when I had spent all of HIS watches running the winch for him and for his training) that he must be ALL set to run the winch by himself. He called to Company and told them that I was not training him properly and that he was not given enough time to be comfortable on the winch. He was never sent back to any boat that I was on for the rest of the time that he worked there.

As for me, I’m glad that I’m retired and no longer have to worry about kids like this having my back!

[Jetryder223]

I see this thread has morphed into another ‘back in my day’ thread. A sentiment that has endured the test of time for thousands of years.

There was a line from my favorite movie JAWS, where Quint was bitching “Can’t find a good man under 40 nowadays. They can’t go to sea without their electric toothbrush or color TV”

I believe that movie was from 1973 when most you old farts were just ‘Effen young punks’. What’s changed?

[Ctony]

[QUOTE=Jetryder223;176838]

I believe that movie was from 1973 when most you old farts were just ‘Effen young punks’. What’s changed?[/QUOTE]

I can relate to the posts smoke 'em and tugs made. Being in my mid-30s, I can also be thrown into the ‘younger generation’ category as well.
Personally, whenever I’ve bounced around, got on a new boat, new company, new run, whatever in my career, I’ve always been proactive and tried to better myself. You get what you put into it. No one told me to do this, I just figured its up to me to be competent and move ahead in life and its my responsibility. If I get fortunate enough to benefit from someone who’s willing to share their knowledge and experience with me at the same time, it made things a bit easier and I felt very fortunate.
Many people feel entitlement for just showing up, being there. They want their hand held. There is that old school value of giving a shit and showing gumption, going the extra mile, that is a foreign concept to a lot of people.
As far as sticking with a company, saving money…well you old timers have to admit the cost of living isn’t what it was 20 years ago. The cost of raising a family has changed too. It’s my own doing why I have debt and I know it. I made some poor decisions when I was younger. Wish I would have waited to have kids when my life was more stable…wish I would have got off my ass and upgraded a long time ago before I had kids too. Because of those factors, not my ego, is the main reason why I’ve bounced around and chased money, and don’t have a nest egg.

[c.captain]

now this is getting very ugly

[B]OPEC Crude Oil Plunges Below $30 for First Time Since 2004[/B]

Angelina Rascouet

Thursday, January 07, 2016

(Bloomberg) – The price of crude sold by OPEC members slid below $30 a barrel, the lowest level in almost 12 years, as turmoil in Chinese markets deepened the global commodities rout.

The daily basket price of crudes produced by the 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell to $29.71 a barrel on Wednesday, down from $31.21 the previous day, the group said in an e-mailed statement. That’s the lowest level since February 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil has slumped further this week as a selloff in Chinese markets added to concerns about the strength of the nation’s economy. WTI crude, the U.S. benchmark, has had its worst-ever start to the year, deepening the economic pain for OPEC’s weaker members such as Venezuela.

“If you look at all the benchmarks, they’re all at very low levels,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix GmbH, said by phone. The turmoil in China is “putting a lot of pressure on all assets,” he said.

Saudi Arabia – OPEC’s biggest producer – has led the group for just over a year in a strategy to defend its market share and let prices fall in a bid to push higher-cost rivals such as U.S. shale oil explorers out of the market. The policy has proven costly and slow to bear fruits. While U.S. output has fallen 4.1 percent from its June peak of 9.6 million barrels a day, OPEC members lost about $500 billion in revenue last year, according to the International Energy Agency.

OPEC, which supplies around 40 percent of the world’s oil, left its strategy unchanged at its December meeting in Vienna, effectively abandoning any limits on its production.

“I don’t really see them changing for now,” Jakob said, referring to OPEC’s leading member Saudi Arabia. “What we need to wait for now is for an OPEC country to collapse. That is still a risk factor, but it’s not necessary an overnight risk factor.”

While Saudi Arabia’s budget has room to withstand a long period of low oil prices thanks to its $627 billion in net foreign assets, Venezuela is facing the deepest recession in its history because oil accounts for 95 percent of its exports. The International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela’s gross domestic product contracted 10 percent last year.

Saudi Arabia might admit defeat and consider reversing its strategy if low prices haven’t led to significant cuts to non- OPEC supply by 2018, Nitesh Shah, a commodities strategist at ETF Securities, said in a note.

2018 before Saudi Arabia might throttle back? They are out for blood and won’t stop until they get it but the innocent dead are going to continue to pile up like never before. It is literally a Holocaust of an industry!

[AHTS_Master]

[QUOTE=c.captain;176890]now this is getting very ugly

2018 before Saudi Arabia might throttle back? They are out for blood and won’t stop until they get it but the innocent dead are going to continue to pile up like never before. It is literally a Holocaust of an industry![/QUOTE]

They are our friends, they would never do that.

[tugsailor]

[QUOTE=AHTS Master;176902]They are our friends, they would never do that.[/QUOTE]

They are putting the screws to Iran and Russia. We should be happy about that.

They are helping the overall US economy tremendously. We should be happy about that too.

They have crushed the oil patch and many of us are feeling the downstream ripple effects of that.

[ombugge]

[QUOTE=tugsailor;176917]They are putting the screws to Iran and Russia. We should be happy about that.

They are helping the overall US economy tremendously. We should be happy about that too.

They have crushed the oil patch and many of us are feeling the downstream ripple effects of that.[/QUOTE]

The days of US self-sufficiency in Energy may be numbered, unless you develop renewable resources more, or start to take the bus.

[Jetryder223]

[QUOTE=ombugge;176919]The days of US self-sufficiency in Energy may be numbered, unless you develop renewable resources more, or start to take the bus.[/QUOTE]

But that will NEVER happen when there is cheap oil to be had.

Noble causes such as renewable resources and self sufficiency are a byproduct of high energy costs.

We will do the right thing when all other options have been exhausted.

[ombugge]

[QUOTE=Jetryder223;176982]But that will NEVER happen when there is cheap oil to be had.

Noble causes such as renewable resources and self sufficiency are a byproduct of high energy costs.

We will do the right thing when all other options have been exhausted.[/QUOTE]

Aha, quoting Churchill are you??

I agree with you that there are not going to be any changes as long as there are access to cheap oil and gas, unless there is an attitude change.

The US attitude towards global warming is not likely to change as long as you can hide behind: “China and India are the biggest polluters, why should we do anything as long as they don’t do”. Conveniently forgetting that both China and India are developing countries with abt. 4 times the US population each.

Statistically each US citizen create much more pollution then each Chinese and far more then every Indian, by why drag out inconvenient facts?: http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world’s-top-10-emitters
Another inconvenient fact isthat China is actually doing a lot to reduce their pollution level, if for nothing else because of the problem it crates at home.

They are able to think long range when it comes to planning while the US cannot think passed the next election campaign, which starts at the end of the present one, hence nothing can be planned.
China also see great potential in developing green technology for the world and are a already the leaders in several fields, incl. Solar.

[Jetryder223]

I attended a lecture where the speaker claimed the USA consists of 6% of the global population, yet consumes 26% of the global energy output. What do you think will happen when developing countries such as India and China achieve a North American standard of living?

[ombugge]

[QUOTE=Jetryder223;176989]I attended a lecture where the speaker claimed the USA consists of 6% of the global population, yet consumes 26% of the global energy output. What do you think will happen when developing countries such as India and China achieve a North American standard of living?[/QUOTE]

Unless he was talking at a seminar specifically about energy he probably meant ALL non-renewable resources.
Yes China is a major consumer of resources, but a lot of it is re-exported in the form of steel, semi-processed materials and consumer products from iPhones to toys etc. but more and more major items like ship, cars and high end machinery of all kind. (Just look at where the Container cranes in US ports are designed and produced)
Domestic consumption will increase as the standard of living in China is increasing, which is part of the next 5-year plan just agreed.
Something similar is likely to happen in India, in S.E.Asia and most of all in Africa, but because the starting point is lower and the political situation is different, it will be less certain and less rapid.
The relative consumption of resources in the US and Europe will decrease, but the total consumption will increase until resources gets so scarce that what is now seen as inexpensive will look excessively expensive.
This may lead to a fight for resources, unless the human race can agree on a more even distribution and consumption of the available resources.
Better start to prepare by taking the bus.

[cmakin]

[QUOTE=Jetryder223;176989]I attended a lecture where the speaker claimed the USA consists of 6% of the global population, yet consumes 26% of the global energy output. What do you think will happen when developing countries such as India and China achieve a North American standard of living?[/QUOTE]

A US Standard of living is not culturally likely in China and India. . .