Crude oil is collapsing!

feeling a sense of gloom and doom is being overly optimistic!

Crude oil is collapsing

Akin Oyedele

Aug. 3, 2015, 12:23 PM

Crude oil is falling to new lows.

On Monday in New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell more than 4% and slipped below $45 per barrel, a level it hasn’t touched since March.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark that joined WTI in a bear market last week, dropped more than 4%, below $50 per barrel for the first time since January.

The declines come after an ugly month across commodities. Specifically, in July, oil prices fell 21% in the worst monthly decline since October 2008.

It continues to be a story of oversupply. On Friday, a Reuters survey showed that the 12-member oil cartel OPEC pushed production to the highest monthly level in recent history.

Additionally, we learned this morning that Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a two-year low, with the official PMI gauge dropping to 50.0. This adds to concern that demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer would slow – a worry that was highlighted in the bigger commodities slump last month.

Here’s a chart showing the slump in WTI on Monday:

whatever will the world do with so many new drillships and OSVs? Amazing nobody has gone belly up yet!

Reading Workboat magazine today made me chuckle in a sad way. The article had several OSV managers stating " there are too many boats". Well no kidding, I think some posters here said what was the reason for so many boats being built. Workboat magazine articles the past several years were all about all the new boats coming out, now there are too many.Didnt these managers think that something like the 80s could happen again?

[QUOTE=Doodlebug;166560]Didnt these managers think that something like the 80s could happen again?[/QUOTE]

Don’t think the thought ever entered there greedy minds…the average Bayoo Mafia is not just a greedy bastard…he’s also quite stoopid with their lowrate South Loosiana educations!

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sorry…“their” minds

Scooter, is the sky falling ?

[QUOTE=AHTS Master;166566]Scooter, is the sky falling ?[/QUOTE]

don’t know about the sky falling there lil toot but the offshore is indeed involved in a specular crash these days

//youtu.be/bGFl5I1SSAM

that you driving?

Well, we have a lot of oil and nobody is using it
Its not like crack where you give it away and make everybody a junkie ( customer), we are all doing cold turkey now.

just heard a story of 2 box ships that were going to be lng powered but at the last minute changed to mgo as they decided it would be cheap for years

there in no question in my mind that we have gone back 30 years and are in the middle 80’s again…

simply incredible how every player over extended themselves just like three decades before. There will be blood!

[B]Don’t Be Surprised If Oil Prices Hit $20[/B]

William Edwards

Is $20 oil Possible? This question has been asked, and answered, in previous Oilpro posts. Yes, $20 oil is possible. Will it happen? I don’t know. But it is worthwhile to understand why a $20 price is not out of reason. Further, it might be instructive to understand why recent oil price commentators are suggesting a low-thirties number.

A year ago it was almost impossible to get an article published that talked about $60 oil. That price was believed to be completely unreasonable. Now we are flooded with commentaries speculating on “How low will it go?”, with $30-40 numbers quite common. It now takes $10 or $20 to reach the “sensational” threshold. But is the $20 number of today the same as the $60 number a year ago? Is it just a matter of time? To answer that question we need to remind ourselves of the way prices happen.

Forget everything that you have been told or that you think you understand about the way oil price happens. Here is the real story in today’s world.

We will use the price of gasoline as our example. Other oil products follow a similar pattern. We begin at the end – pumping gasoline into the tank of our automobile. What price do we pay at that point? The price posted on the pump, of course. Do we negotiate the price with the fueling station before we pump? Of course not. If we tried, the service station owner would roll his eyes and turn to a sane customer. Thus the ultimate sale price of oil sold as gasoline is determined by the service station owner.

Where does the service station owner get his price? On the invoice that comes along with the tank truck delivery by the wholesaler. He tacks on his margin of a few cents and posts the resulting number on the pump. Where does the wholesaler get the price he puts on the invoice? From the refiner/supplier. He will add a few cents margin to the wholesale price and that is the number that appears on the invoice to the service station owner.

Where does the refiner get the price that he puts on the invoice to the wholesaler? Here the details of the story get somewhat cloudy, but the result is clear. The number that appears on the invoice that the refiner presents to the wholesaler is the price set by someone in the marketing department. You might say that Rex Tillerson provides that number for Exxonmobil, and he does bear the ultimate responsibility for that number, but he delegates the actual number-crunching to his underlings. Where then does the underling get the actual number that he instructs be applied to the wholesaler’s invoice? This answer is the key to our understanding, so I will elaborate.

If one listens to distinguished professors, elite analysts from financial institutions or industry associations, or television talking heads, we might be advised that this price is determined by 1) the price of crude, 2) the cost of the highest cost production, 3) the average cost of production, 4) the cost of a competing fuel, 5) OPEC’s production level, 6) world spare capacity, 7) OPEC’s quota, 8) OPEC cheating or a myriad of other reasons. All are wrong. The number cruncher in the refining company gets his number directly from the published prices on the oil futures exchange. His price, therefore the refining company’s price, therefore my price is directly created and supplied by the CME Group, the company that operates the oil futures exchanges.

We then are left with the question “How are futures prices determined?” Do the futures traders analyze world supply and demand on an instantaneous basis, factor in the cost or production from a million wells, assess and quantify the transportation element in each oil movement worldwide and then apply that complicated assessment in his price outcry? Of course not! He knows nothing and cares less about all those factors. He is merely guessing whether the price he is bidding or taking will be better, in his direction, in a few seconds, minutes or hours. It has nothing to do with oil, other than the name on the contract. When one realizes this fact it is appalling that this activity determines the price of oil. It is even more appalling that people who advise us and should know better suggest that the “market” is wise and, in fact, knows all.

Now that we have established that the actual price determination is whatever price results from transactions between futures traders, we should be in a position to gauge the price range that can occur under these circumstances. The answer to that question is “Anything”. There are no limits to the numbers that futures traders are willing to consider since the absolute number has no meaning. The only guess is whether it will be higher or lower on the next trade. By recognizing this fact we can appreciate why the duration of a trend is the only important element in judging how high, or low, the price can go.

Are we then left to conclude that the price can be as low as zero and as high as infinity? Theoretically, yes. Practically speaking, zero is not really a lower limit for short periods. And the upper limit is probably restricted to the availability of margin money. But unreasonable prices in either direction are possible.

But, you protest, we have been taught that there is a relationship, in fact an equilibrium, between price and supply as well as price and demand. So wild movements in either direction cannot occur! Your protest is denied. Time is of the essence. Futures price movements occur in microseconds. Establishing an approach to equilibrium between price and demand is on the order of a year or two. The equilibrium time for supply approaching a price-determined level is probably decades. Microseconds beats out years or decades every time. So the futures-created price can be unreasonable for a long time. As a futures trader once commented, “I can keep prices at an unreasonable level longer than you can supply margin money”.

Now that we understand the reality of pricing, let us return to the initial question. Can the price of oil go as low as $20? Of course it can. Can it go as low as $10? Of course it can. Will it? Who knows! But for guidance we might take note of the mechanism that is widely used by the trading community for “guessing” price moves.

Historical charts are prepared for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly price history. There are peaks and valleys. A previous valley is a “resistance” point, as is a previous peak. These are also “target” points due to “stops”. The current valley is about $44. It is likely that that valley will be reached soon. The next valley is about $35. Already John Kilduff is pointing to that level. More trading-oriented commentators will jump on that bandwagon, and their concerted thinking will be self-fulfilling. So $35 in the next few months is quite likely. Since highly-leveraged speculation always overshoots, a panic move in the $35 level can easily see a spike into the twenties. So be prepare

TOTE just announced it is sending one of their Alaska run ships to Keppel to be re powered with LNG.

One of two things will happen:

  1. the Saudi’s accept a lower market share with a higher oil price

  2. the Saudi’s accept a higher market share with a lower oil price

For those of us that come from a country where oil production is expensive, lets pray for the first option.

[QUOTE=follow40;166809]One of two things will happen:

  1. the Saudi’s accept a lower market share with a higher oil price

  2. the Saudi’s accept a higher market share with a lower oil price

For those of us that come from a country where oil production is expensive, lets pray for the first option.[/QUOTE]

the sad reality we have to face is that no matter what, offshore oil is more expensive than land based oil so long as prices are depressed, the majors do not have much incentive to explore and produce offshore provinces

then there is this for us to try to digest:

[B]The Top 6 Reasons Oil Prices are Heading Lower [/B]

By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2015/05/07

Investors and speculators can make money in any market no matter which way prices move. In a rising market, you buy and then sell later at a higher price to make profit; in a falling market, you commit to sell and then buy later at a lower price (shorting). The key element on deciding on an investment strategy in crude oil is to work out where prices are heading.

Despite the fact that falling prices can be an incentive to speculate, brokers and traders that live and breathe the oil market tend to prefer rising prices. Everyone loves to back a winner and rising numbers make those in the market feel like they have improved their status. Thus, no matter how clearly factors show prices are going lower, you will still read enthusiastic explanations that oil prices will rise soon.

Some buyers and their agents may have been caught out by long-term futures contracts that commit them to high prices despite the falling spot price. Thus, they will talk up the market to try to square their books and find a pool of gullible outsiders upon whom they can dump their over-priced stock. However, readers at oil-price.net should know by now that the simple rules of supply and demand mean that the crude oil price will continue to hang around or below the $60 mark for some time to come. Here are the top 6 reasons that savvy speculators should continue to short crude oil.

  1. Iran Returns

Despite heavy fines by the US authorities against anyone trading in any way with Iran, that country has still managed to continue oil production over the past few years. Sanctions against Iran have existed in various forms since the eighties when religious fundamentalists overthrew the West-friendly Shah of Iran and committed a series of terrorist attacks against Western nationals. However, sanctions ramped up to the point of shutting Iran out of the oil markets in January 2012, when the US insisted that Iran cancel its program of tests of nuclear weapons.

At the beginning of April 2015 Iran signed an agreement to end its nuclear program and let in international inspectors to prove its commitment. Confirmation of Iran’s compliance will remove the biting sanctions of 2012 and bring Iranian oil to international markets. Despite being stymied by US and EU sanctions, Iran is still able to produce 2.7 million barrels per day, of which 1 million is exported. The un-exported 1.7 million barrels meet domestic demand, but a large proportion is sent to storage.

The world currently has excess crude oil production of roughly 2 million barrels per day, so a cash-strapped, and slightly embittered Iran could have immediate impact on crude oil prices by putting its estimate 35 million barrels of stored oil on the market the day sanctions are lifted.

The impact of Iran’s return to the market greatly depends on how quickly they can ramp up production. Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Iran’s oil minister, claims that the country could easily increase production by 1 million bpd within months of the lifting of sanctions. That worrying figure would increase the world’s excess production by 50 per cent, which some analysts claim would push crude oil prices down to $20 per barrel. However, other analysts are skeptical.

Iran’s production levels were at 4 million barrels per day in 2011 before the latest round of sanctions hit. Iran’s isolation and denial of technology and investment capital means its oil industry has become badly under-invested. Their ability to get back up to former production levels could also be blocked by OPEC, of which Iran is a member. Nevertheless, Iran’s return will prevent the world’s excess supply from being reduced and so prices will fall.

  1. Fracking is Not Going Away

Many believe that the 2014 fall in oil prices was specifically engineered by Saudi Arabia to knock out US oil production through fracking. Industry analysts estimated that heavy start up costs and financing requirements placed the break-even point of a fracking rig at around a $70 per barrel price of crude oil. Many saw the slump in the price of crude down to $60 and then to the $50 mark as a significant factor.

Sure enough, the rig count in the USA plummeted from 1,608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. Seemingly, the lower oil price had squeezed out US oil production in the higher-cost fracking sector. However, the advancement of technology and the agility of fracking producers resulted in higher output from fewer rigs. In October 2014, the USA produced just under 9 million barrels per day. In April 2015, that output had increased to just under 9.5 million barrels per day.

Chinese oil production through fracking has risen to the same extent as USA production, with companies in both countries adopting and improving the same technology. In a world with an excess production of 2 million barrels per day, America’s increased production means that oil prices are not about to rise. China’s increases compound that situation.

  1. OPEC is Idle

Previous oil price falls have been keenly countered by OPEC, the cartel of oil producing nations, centered mainly on Middle Eastern producers. Whenever oil prices fall, OPEC cuts quotas to its members, limiting their production and causing the price to rise through reduced output.

Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest producer in the OPEC club and the opinion of its oil minister, pretty much rules the actions of OPEC. If OPEC members decide to cut their production, but Saudi Arabia refuses to play ball, the resolution to cut would have no impact on oil prices, and thus be a worthless exercise.

Fracking started to provide the USA with a means of achieving energy independence. The country has already become a net exporter of gas, and similar performance in oil production would remove the USA’s dependence on the Middle East for its oil supplies. Saudi Arabia’s dominance of American oil supply enables them to entice the USA to deploy its military in the Persian Gulf at the direction of Saudi foreign policy. The Saudis want to return to the days of US dependence on Arabian oil and so refuse to cut their production in the face of falling prices.

Despite the apparent failure of the Saudi production tactic, OPEC shows no signs of changing its policy. The Saudis seem to be determined to continue forcing the price of crude down to squeeze out US production, but as fracking gets cheaper, output will continue to expand and the price of crude oil will continue to fall.

  1. Russia Produces More

Political analyst point out that oil prices fell dramatically around the time that Russia invaded the Ukraine and the EU dithered over imposing the sanctions that the USA demanded. Although Europe did eventually go along with the policy of punishing Russia through trade restrictions, their reluctance to really hit hard has undermined US strategy.

Eyeing the success of an embargo on oil sales in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, the US administration, the theory goes, decided to depress the price of oil in order to bankrupt Russia and force it to cancel plans to take over the Ukraine. The Russian economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil and gas exports, because it has little successful industry and is unable to match the West in the development of technology.

Saudi Arabia also has a cause to complain about Vladimir Putin’s behavior. The Saudis loathe Bashar Assad, the President of Syria and want to see him overthrown. American and European governments seemed willing to play along with this policy until the Russians threw their support behind Assad and European determination folded. Without any significant allies to share the burden, the USA cancelled their planned invasion of Syria. The infuriated Saudis decided to take matters into their own hands and collapsed the price of oil with the intention of punishing Russia, not US frackers.

Vladimir Putin and his administration have complained loudly and frequently that the oil price fall was deliberately aimed at attacking the Russian economy. However, the steadfast determination of unrealistic quotas haunts the Russian mentality as an overhang of the Communist era. Putin needs money to continue his glorious and domestically popular policy of reassembling the Russian Empire. The Russians refuse to bend to market forces and so have made up the shortfall in their budget caused by falling oil prices by pumping out more oil. The Russian need for income means they are unlikely to make a tactical cut in oil output. Increased production adds to the downward pressure on crude oil prices.

  1. ISIL’s Days are Numbered

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant are said to be causing havoc with oil production in the Middle East. ISIL, originally called “the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,” first came to the world’s attention when they threatened takeover of northern Iraq and Syria in the autumn of 2014 – just after the USA declared they would not intervene in Syria to overthrow its president.

Oil analysts talk up the oil price by warnings over ISIL’s actions. However, the revolutionaries only managed to grab a small portion of Iraq’s oil wells and actually increased production of their new assets in order to fund their cause. The ISIL bogeyman delayed the fall in oil prices by about a month and the havoc they have wrought across the Middle East has since failed to block that overproduction of 2 million bpd.

ISIL’s greatest success in wrecking an oil producing country came in Libya, where they apply different tactics to the oil industry. Rather than profiting from Libya’s oil wells, ISIL has been destroying them, thus knocking out a major oil producing nation. Simultaneous increases in production in the USA, China and Russia, however, mean that the loss of Libyan output has had no impact on the glut of crude oil in the world. The panic pricing in the oil markets that the group’s initial appearance caused has withered away.

Europe’s willingness to turn a blind eye to ISIL’s activities in Libya came to an abrupt end in mid-April. Deciding to knock out oil production, rather than profit from it, ISIL turned to Libya’s other money maker – people smuggling. The short distance between the Libyan coastline and the Italian island of Lampedusa makes the former slave trading ports of Libya ideal routes for illegal immigrants to sneak into the EU. Unfortunately, the greed and carelessness of the smugglers has resulted in overloaded ships sinking in the middle of the Mediterranean.

The death toll through drowning of ISIL’s passengers has reached headline-grabbing levels and Europe’s major military powers have resolved to put an end to the organization’s activities. Although the smuggling gangs are the proposed targets of European airstrikes, the difficulty of identifying those activists means that Europe will have to restore a legitimate government to Libya in order to stop human trafficking.

It is significant that the proposed European strategy is to join Egyptian military efforts. The Egyptians have been routinely bombing ISIL in Libya since February. ISIL is easier to attack than other terrorist groups. With a standing army, rather than a terrorist cell structure, such as that of Al Qaeda, ISIL is more visible, and so can be engaged by a traditional military response. Its system of local governors and administrators require offices and infrastructure that are fixed and easy to bomb. The imminent defeat of ISIL in Libya means the oil industry there will be able to rebuild, the world’s oil production excess will increase and crude oil prices will fall further.

  1. No Demand

The excess supply in the oil market could easily be mopped up by increased demand. However, there is no great leap in growth expected in the world for the next couple of years. Energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy, such as solar, has permanently reduced demand for oil in most of the developed world.

Both the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China have announced they are ending their loose monetary policies. This free money pumped around the world inflated the prices of property, stocks, bonds and commodities. Part of the reason the oil price rose through 2013 and early 2014 was simply that the excessive amount of dollars in circulation had to be invested in something. Now that money has to be paid back, the asset price inflation of the past two years will be reversed.

The BRIC economies have failed to continue their stratospheric growth into 2015. In fact, some developing nations, like Brazil, are now in recession, with tumbling currencies cutting their populations’ spending power. World trade is falling and demand for oil will fall with it. With few prospects of increased demand for oil, the chance of its price rising is zero.
Conclusion

The major oil producers have done nothing to cut production since October 2014, and they are unlikely to consider cutting output any time soon. The USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia each have different reasons to continue high output, but all three are just stockpiling oil because they cannot find enough immediate buyers. Add on the inevitable return of Iran and Libya and the prospects of the 2 million bpd excess production in the world reducing can be seen to be impossible.

Monetary tightening will reduce world growth and remove asset price inflation. Lower growth, coupled with lower need for oil through efficiency and environmentalism, means demand for oil is not going to exceed supply for a long time to come. The oil price is not going to rise any time soon.

WTI crude down to $44.66 this morning and going lower

Well I hate to rain on c.captain’s doom and gloom “He Hate Me” premature schadenfreude parade, but everyone knew that oil had another leg downward this year, it’s just the way market psychology works. Over the long term this second leg downward will be the impetus that rebalances the producers. Once that process is completed I think the offshore industry as a whole will weather this storm and come out stronger, just perhaps not as strong as people were expecting a couple of years ago. A few things have to happen first.

  1. 60% depletion rate mathematics are inevitable but take time to take hold. Less drilling is occurring in the shale plays, therefore production will progressively diminish as time goes on.
  2. Interest rates are set to increase. Low cost long term financing for shale players will be a thing of the past. They will no longer be able to churn their paper, and many will go out of business, reducing overall shale drilling activity.
  3. Long term hedging of shale oil has about run its course. With prices headed downward, it will be a further impetus to break down the economics of many shale companies at the margins, resulting in more bankruptcies and less drilling.
  4. With many small players forced to throw in the towel rather than drill based on hope, there will be consolidation in the industry. Bigger players go slower and hedge their bets, leading to less overall drilling activity.
  5. Lower cost oil is ultimately stimulative to consumption, though the horizons for this are probably still out there a ways.

The global economy won’t cease, oil will recuperate, and things may begin to stabilize and even improve in 2016 for the offshore oil and gas industry. In the meanwhile there will be a continued focus on reducing costs that may take salaries lower, though that will be a slow process that could be interrupted by a recovery in oil demand. Plus, the new STCW requirements will serve as a bottleneck for those that have left the industry to rejoin it, making those who have remained more valuable over the long term.

I’m not unworried, but I’m not that worried.

[QUOTE=The Lash;166831]Well I hate to rain on c.captain’s doom and gloom “He Hate Me” premature schadenfreude parade[/QUOTE]

been waiting quite some time for the first person to use the term schadenfreude to describe my feelings towards the downturn in the price of crude…

I can neither confirm nor deny that label as it would be very conditional on who was being effected? Certainly I feel glee at Joe Boss’s sufferings but mixed feelings concerning his workers being forced to take pay cuts and have their benefits slashed. Joe throws juicy bones to his dogs when he is happy and they love him when he does but he kicks them when he is unhappy and their howls ring hollow to my ears because good times or bad they refuse to be anything other then obedient hounds for their owner. I’d have alot more respect for offshore mariners if they fought the boss and lost than I have for them not fighting at all and still losing.

Scooter, what does Joe Boss have to do with … Crude oil is collapsing!

Fighting and arguing with your boss leads to Losing your job…losing your paycheck…losing your house…lot of losing going on in that situation. Does your respect have any monetary value attached?

[QUOTE=AHTS Master;166867]Scooter, what does Joe Boss have to do with … Crude oil is collapsing![/QUOTE]

you might look up the definition of the word schadenfreude to find your answer

and you are correct…Crude oil is collapsing.

Down almost 2 more percent today

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[QUOTE=Fraqrat;166868]Fighting and arguing with your boss leads to Losing your job…losing your paycheck…losing your house…lot of losing going on in that situation. Does your respect have any monetary value attached?[/QUOTE]

fighting and arguing all by yourself leads to such outcomes but fighting and arguing as an organized collective leads to amazing results if the leaders of any collective place the best interests of the members first and foremost

 That's a big "IF" I'm not prepared to gamble my family's security on.

[QUOTE=Fraqrat;166878]That’s a big “IF” I’m not prepared to gamble my family’s security on.[/QUOTE]

you focusing on the “IF” indicates you are afraid that the leadership of a collective bargaining unit will not put the interests of mariners ahead of their own interests which history does support however it need not be a given that the leadership chosen by the ground would not place the mariners first. That is achieved through the members electing leaders who are honest brokers and holding them to their pledges.

just know that the time when mariners hold all face cards is when times are good and Joe Boss needs them desperately. Nowdays when times are bad, Joe holds all the good cards and the mariners don’t hold shit to prevent him from cutting, burning and slashing which we see he is doing with relish in these times. So the mariners get what they get and I hold them just as responsible for their fates leading to my not feeling all boohoo sorry for their plight. Until the day that they stand up to the bosses and demand a contract of employment they will never get any better that they currently have which to me is NOTHING!

[QUOTE=c.captain;166881]you focusing on the “IF” indicates you are afraid that the leadership of a collective bargaining unit will not put the interests of mariners ahead of their own interests which history does support however it need not be a given that the leadership chosen by the ground would not place the mariners first. That is achieved through the members electing leaders who are honest brokers and holding them to their pledges.

just know that the time when mariners hold all face cards is when times are good and Joe Boss needs them desperately. Nowdays when times are bad, Joe holds all the good cards and the mariners don’t hold shit to prevent him from cutting, burning and slashing which we see he is doing with relish in these times. So the mariners get what they get and I hold them just as responsible for their fates leading to my not feeling all boohoo sorry for their plight. Until the day that they stand up to the bosses and demand a contract of employment they will never get any better that they currently have which to me is NOTHING![/QUOTE]

Most mariners in the GOM and on the drillships sign a paper agreeing they have no rights and are employees only until someone in authority decided they don’t need or like them. It is called “right to work” which means you have no right to work ! Also, your benefits are not promised. In the case of the company that decided at the end of the year they would not contribute to the 401k for the previous year? Well that was written in the contract too. It should have been clearer and in bold letters I guess. YOU MAY CONTRIBUTE TO OUR 401K PLAN BY PUTTING UP TO 5% OF YOUR MONEY INTO FUNDS WE DECIDE WE WANT TO OFFER. AT THE END OF THE YEAR WE, JEAUX BAWS, MAY OR MAY NOT MATCH THAT MONEY YOU PUT IN. IF WE CHOOSE NOT TO… TOUGH SHIT, YOU COULD HAVE INVESTED SOMEWHERE ELSE. YOU GAMBLED YOU LOST. YOU CAN WITHDRAW THE MONEY YOU PUT INTO THE FUNDS WE PICKED OUT FOR YOU TO CHOOSE FROM BUT YOU’LL HAVE TO PAY THE IRS TAXES OF ABOUT 20% IN ADVANCE.
Unfortunately things aren’t always explained so clearly.

First of all, I’m not anti union, there are some good jobs with them, and some terrible jobs with them. Sort of like non union jobs. I just don’t see your obsession with them in the OSV industry. First of all, I am not aware of any union work boat jobs that are overall better than the big OSV companies in total compensation. And right now, explain what a union does for everyone when there are 100 boats tied up? If you have a contract, and the company can’t cut pay, they’ll lay off immediately after the generator get’s shut off. Now what? Go to the union hall and hang out with the other 100 guys looking for a job? Collect unemployment? You can do that now. You want everyone to rise up and organize, but unless you’re bringing some charter contracts to the party, I don’t get it. By definition a busness needs to make money; do you expect the owner to go backwards just to keep you working? Furthermore, how do you think Joe Boss feels about having boats tied up? I don’t care how much money he or she has, the idea behind building boats is to make money. Was there a failure to appreciate possibility of a down turn? Yep. There were some acquisitions made by everyone that didn’t make any sense to the average boat guy, but what do we know.

The 401k thing on the other hand, FUBAR.