[B]…Typhoon Melor Continues Toward the Northern Marianas…
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan.
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Rota and Agrihan.[/I][/B]
At 1100 pm EDT, 0300z, the center of Typhoon Melor was located near latitude 14.3 degrees north and longitude 150.7 degrees east. This is about 335 miles east of Saipan, 345 miles east of Tinian, 370 miles east of Rota, 400 miles east of Guam and 455 miles southeast of Agrihan.
Typhoon Melor is moving slowly west-northwest at 5 mph. An increase in forward speed is expected during the next 6 to 12 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. Melor is expected to continue to intensify, and may become a Super Typhoon in the next 24 hours. Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center.
[B][I][U]Follow this link for tracking map…[/U]
[/I][/B][I][B]Discussion for Typhoon Melor
[/B][/I]Typhoon (TY) 20w (Melor) has further intensified as its pin-hole eye occasionally became visible over the past 12 hours. Animated water vapor imagery shows the system has maintained good radial outflow and symmetry. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimate fixes from PGTW, RJTD, and KNES with fair confidence. Upper level analysis indicates Typhoon Melor is just to the west of a divergent point source in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear. The cyclone is tracking along the southern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the north.
Ty 20w is expected to track on a west-northwest trajectory over the next 72 hours and continue to gradually intensify as environmental conditions remain favorable.
After tau 72, a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest will weaken the steering ridge and allow Typhoon Melor to begin recurving towards the north. The available numeric guidance is in good agreement with GFS on the far right and EGRR on the far left of the envelope. This track forecast is in the middle of the pack just to the left of consensus and to the right of ECMWF.
For the latest information on [B]Typhoon Melor[/B] including WFO Guam and JTWC advisories, tracking maps, and satellite images, go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/tropical/pacific/
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