The Science of Climate Change

Wow! A loaded, unsupported statement.

Weather is always a cause for insurance claims. Not climate.

Insurance companies simply adjust premiums accordingly. Weather events can be easily accommodated because they get claimed everyday. There is a steady record of events and catastrophes which go into the calculation of premiums. Premiums increase with risk. Competition contains prices. Capitalism 101.

As for insurance companies refusing to cover certain areas, look deeper. In the LA fires the government had constrained insurance premium increases and thus caused insurers to refuse cover. So Lefty climate catastrophists created an avoidable risk by imposing price controls and caused innocent home owners to be uninsurable.

An additional factor is that Lefty governments refuse to manage forests by cool burning in safer times to reduce fuel loads leading to greater conflagration when fires inevitably happen. Every investigation of catastrophic fires states that fuel loads should have been better managed to reduce fire intensity.

I could go on. Floods caused by governments removing dams (guess who does that) and encouraging building in flood zones, emptying reservoirs (to fix the cover to reduce evaporation losses) for far too long, fire hydrants with no water pressure, fire departments plagued by DEI …. The list goes on.

Climate change isn’t sudden. We’re talking about a poofteenth of a degree of warming over decades. Even an idiot insurance company could outrun that risk. They can’t outrun idiot governments egged on by idiot climate catastrophists.

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They have delivered us to this point, created by the magnificent Joe Biden. The utopia dreamed of by the jealous populations of the world. He was the greatest ever president and he created your paradise. Magnificent!

It’s this democracy thingy that confuses Lefties. They can’t get it. Those idiotic voters get counted just the same as we super intellectuals.

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C’mon my fellow mariners. Discuss the science. It’s in the title.

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They will not because :

And this fallacy is called circulus in probando.

This thread is a gold mine for the " educated and more intelectually gifted " species prolific use of fallacies.

Keep her steady as she goes. :wink:

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You have struck the mother lode here. We elect local government that is seeming composed of wide eyed greenies and tree huggers that don’t do honest research. Here in New Zealand we have had in the last 25 years two major earthquakes and a couple of cyclones. 1965 we had a cyclone with heavy rain and major slips. One clifftop that gave way caused a double fatality. It was never supposed to be built on again. It was and another slip, this time two firefighters checking on a collapsed house. We have towns built on known flood plains as well as on land subject to liquidification during earthquakes. We have the same problems with fuel loading as Australia and California because those who are supposedly at one with nature don’t learn from it. Fortunately our bush is in most of the country, covered in moss at ground level but it is the bush, the wet and the cold that kills you rather than snakes and other animals.
Insurance premiums have climbed by over 30% in the last couple of years forcing people to rethink the kind of cover they have.
Earthquakes have nothing to do with climate change but looking at a lot of building construction in LA if and when the big one comes through it, will make the fires small beer indeed.

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The study used, Lindzen and Choi (2009), has been found to have serious errors, Lindzen himself said about his own study: "some stupid mistakes and just embarrassing".

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So what’s actually wrong in what I’ve posted.

More of a question is, what is RIGHT!!

I did find the posted graph used (in various forms) by several well known climate change deniers in various fora.

There are equally many well know climate scientists that have a different opinion, with different impressive graphs to prove the opposite.

While the argumentation goes on, here and on numerous other forums, there are more wild fires, more drought, more floods and stronger storms, causing more death and destruction around the world.

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If you had the slightest bit of proof that any of those things are indeed more prevalent than normal levels, if you had the slightest proof that any such things are definitely caused by “climate change” (which is undefined) and nothing else, if you had a slightly possible and affordable solution to offer, you might get me to argue. You don’t.

I’ve mentioned above how wild fires are made more catastrophic by environmentalists - your people - by preventing proper sensible forest management. Why don’t you start there and encourage better forest management rather than enthusing about how more cargo carrying sailing ships will help lower the world’s temperature (your solution to everything) by a poofteenth of a degree in a century?

I can argue climate science but I’ve found it’s unproductive but I add things from time to time to remind people they are believing a lie, they’ve drunk the Koolade, they’ve been sucked in by a gigantic fraud.

There are easier ways to save the world. There are better ways to spend aid funds to improve the lives of the desperately impoverished. In that regard I commend you to your fellow Scandinavian, Bjorn Lomborg, who actually believes global warming is an issue but calculates that other issues produce a greater positive effect.

Two key characteristics of a good model are it’s predictive and falsifiable. The historical example is Copernicus, Tycho Brahe, Kepler and Newton.

Copernicus’ model had errors found by Tycho Brahe’s observations and Kepler’s calculations. Newton’s work provided an explanation.

Likewise, a climate model provides a framework for making predictions and testing fallibility.

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So if the predictions are wrong, so is the model. But we base the entirety of our countermeasures to catastrophic global warming on unvalidated models. We spend $trillions in wide-eyed anticipation based on rubbish.

I think they are careful to state they don’t make predictions, they forecast according to a number of assumptions.

A large collection of climate models running over decades predicted/forecast far more warming than actually occurred. They are wrong. But those are the models on which we base our responses. They all ignore the effect of water vapour - a far more efficacious greenhouse gas - and clouds. They overemphasise the warming effect of CO2.

I saved this summary last year. Peruse the links at your leisure.

What weather would show us that climate models are wrong?

The tally of failure continues: the hot spot is still missing, the climate models can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, they don’t know why global warming slowed for years, They can’t explain the pause, the cause or the long term historic climate movements either. Measurements of satellites, clouds, 3,000 ocean buoys, 6,000 boreholes, a thousand tide gauges, and 28 million weather balloons can’t find the warming that the models predict. In the oceans, the warming isn’t statistically significant, sea-levels started rising too early, aren’t rising fast enough, aren’t accelerating, nor are warming anywhere near as much as they predicted. Antarctica was supposed to be warming faster than almost anywhere but they were totally wrong. The vast Southern Ocean is cooling not warming. And the only part of Antarctica that’s warming sits on top of a volcano chain they prefer not to tell you about.

No wonder expert climate modelers don’t want their own pensions bet on climate models.

Students of 20th Century Climate Dogma 101 will marvel at how long a stupid, skillless, hypothesis kept rolling years after it was proven wrong.

P.S. Still waiting for what you claim I got wrong in an earlier post re Lindzen and Choi.

One can argue about climate change with deniers forever but Exxon knew about it in the 1970’s. At this point arguing about the science of climate change is as futile as arguing with the anti-vac crowd.
Personally I think burning fossil fuels except when absolutely needed is a waste of a finite resource plus it pollutes the air and water living things need. Oil is too valuable a commodity to burn. Additionally dependence on oil puts the oil producing cartels in charge of the world economy.
Personally I have PV panels providing 90% of my electrical needs. Never got a subsidy to do so either. Did I do this to save the planet? No it just made economic sense plus the quality of the supply is better than the local utility, HZ and V much more stable. Disclosure; I paid for this and many other things with money I made working for oil producing companies or their direct contractors. They know that they can BS the average person, buy the politicians as well as pay for ‘science’ and even laugh about it.

Maybe these advices could help:

Ok, maybe NOT if you are arguing with a Jughead.


No reasoning will help there.

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How many degrees will this cool us?

Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a warming of 0.0084 C (0.015 F), which is below our ability to accurately measure. If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 C (0.13 F) would be averted. If one assumes that the warming is a factor of 4 larger because of positive feedbacks, as asserted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming averted by a net zero U.S. policy would still be very small, 0.034 C (0.061 F). For worldwide net zero emissions by 2050 and the 4-times larger IPCC climate sensitivity, the averted warming would be 0.28 C (0.50 F).

And Christopher Monckton points out the cost to benefit ratio for this $2 Quadrillion dollar project is every billion dollars we spend cools the world by 20 millionths of a degree.

So let’s keep all the national science institutions that pointed out what a terrible deal this is for all our nations, and shut down the rest — NOAA, NASA, Hadley, CSIRO, NIWA, BoM, Potsdam, NRC, ARC, and while we’re at it — the ABC, BBC, the CBC because they should have asked better questions, like “how many degrees will that cool us?”

And a long time ago Dr David Evans calculated that if Australia got to Net Zero and the IPCC were right, we would “cool” the world by 0.0154°C.

all the carbon in the ground was in the atmosphere before, planet happy for millions of years.

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So, your point is? Keep burning fossil fuels?
At this point you are arguing about science which actual scientists have argued about for years. Leave that to them.
We are mariners and just like you not scientists. If you think everyone should continue burning fossil fuel and polluting the air and water just say so. But if you want to argue science go to some message board or forum where there are actual scientists. Considering all the facts you have your time could be better spent with your scientific peers.

Well no shit. Then the carbon among other elements was formed into a ball, eventually dug up and burned in about the last 300 or so years

so are we just trying to play with nature to suit humans that have only been on the planet for 1 second in its 24hr life?

I found this article very informative. Not sure of the author

“Tony Heller, aka Steven Goddard of the Deplorable Climate Science Blog, has compiled a must-read list of the five top arguments against climate alarmism.

This was in response to a challenge by Scott Adams, who is unsure what position to take on this issue and needs persuasion.

On one of his Periscopes, Adams — creator of the Dilbert cartoons, now with a flourishing side-career as an internet seeker-after-truth — said that if Heller could produce five unassailable arguments then he would become a climate sceptic; but that if Heller failed, then he (Adams) would “come down hard on the opinion that there’s something big to worry about.”

So how has Heller fared?

I think he has done a great job. The five arguments, which I’ll rephrase slightly, are as follows:

Climate alarmism is just a modern version of man’s primal superstitions about cataclysmic natural events. But these fears are baseless for there is no legitimate evidence to show that “extreme weather is increasing or sea level rise is accelerating.”

Climate alarmism is a form of Groupthink — or, as Heller puts it, the Emperor’s New Clothes. This Groupthink requires ignoring the evidence and instead deferring to the opinions of a very small body of parti pris “experts”.
If the case for the “global warming” were as strong as these experts say, the debate would be over by now. Instead, all of their “apocalyptic predictions” have failed miserably. What reason do we have to believe them after all this time?

Climate alarmism is entirely dependent on graphs and computer models which rely on cherry-picked or corrupt data. Few if any of these models have come close to forecasting real world outcomes.

The proposed solutions to “climate change” are “unworkable, dangerous and useless.”

In my view the last argument is the clincher. It’s the one that ought to unite all of us, sceptics and true believers alike. After all, even those who fully subscribe to the theory that climate change is dangerous, unprecedented and man-made ought surely to agree that there’s no point chucking money at the problem if it’s going to do more harm than good.

Yet this is exactly what is happening.

Taxpayer-subsidised wind and solar are doing huge damage to the environment, to wildlife, and to the economy.

Biofuels are destroying rainforest and agricultural land, driving up food prices, needlessly hurting nature.

Rent-seekers in crony capitalist Potemkin industries like renewables are being subsidised to produce inefficient, intermittent, unnecessarily costly power, misallocating scarce resources and driving the indigent deeper into fuel poverty.

Science in universities and schools is being corrupted by a Climate Industrial Complex which rewards science, however flawed, which promotes the alarmist narrative and which punishes science that defies the so-called “Consensus”.

Vast sums of public money — in excess of $1.5 trillion per year — are being squandered on the chimaera of “climate change.” Yet despite all this spending, using the alarmists’ own calculations, it will offset “global warming” by the end of the century by 0.048°C (0.086°F).

That’s 1/20th of one degree Celsius.

The activists, shyster politicians, rent-seekers, dodgy scientists, media second-raters and other useful idiots who are pushing for more climate action are demanding the impossible. If ever they achieved their ambitions, western industrial civilisation would collapse.

As Heller puts it:
The reason winter is cold, is because of a lack of solar energy. The sun is low in the sky, days are short, and it is cloudy much of the time. Yet climate alarmists want people to be dependent on solar energy for their survival. They imagine that there is some storage technology which can store huge amounts of energy for long periods of time when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. But as Bill Gates pointed out, that technology doesn’t exist.

I have degrees in science and engineering, and have worked for most of the last 45 years as both. The job of scientists is to come up with ideas. By contrast, the primary job of engineers is to make things that work. If a bridge or a microprocessor, doesn’t work – very bad things will happen. Bad engineering is fatal to humans, companies and civilizations.

This is what I find so puzzling about self-proclaimed “environmental” campaigners. They keep telling us that they want to save the planet, that they are concerned about “future generations”, that the people who “deny” climate change are selfish, greedy, and anti-science.

Yet everything these “environmental” campaigners do achieves an effect diametrically opposite to their alleged good intentions.

These greenies are hurting the poor, they’re damaging the planet, they’re hampering the economic growth that historically has enabled us to overcome or limit such environmental problems as pollution, they’re killing birds and bats and orangutans. Yet still, somehow, they keep telling us that they have the moral high ground.

Think about this next time you read some scare story about the coming climate apocalypse or about kids bunking off school in order to protest that more needs to be done: it’s not science you’re seeing here but hard left politics.

That’s the main reason, Scott Adams, why you shouldn’t allow yourself to be troubled by the great climate scare: because even if the greenies are right about the science — which they’re not, by the way — they are completely wrong about the solutions.

Their claimed intentions may sound good; the outcomes they inflict on us are evil.

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Yes. They are cheap, concentrated energy used in everyday technology accessible to the entire world and beneficial to all of mankind.

Read the title of this thread, created in that name by KC. Go on. Read it.