Herd immunity isn’t really much of a plan, if it’s even successful, dengue fever herd immunity disappears with a change in serotype and there’s a reason there’s such a thing as an annual flu shot. And a vocal minority shouldn’t be the decision maker
From Johns Hopkins: “To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.“
Tegnell might be the source of the quote I remember. He’s been pretty widely quoted. I read it somewhere almost a month ago. As I vaguely recall, it was a male person. I was thinking it was the Health Minister, but the H.M. is female (Annika Strandhäll), so that’s probably not right.
I hesitated to make that comment on this forum because this audience especially doesn’t let BS go unchallenged and likes to see sources. But the comment, in retrospect just seemed so right on in predicting our present dilemma in the US, I thought I’d relate reading it and maybe someone else who’d seen it could come up with the exact quote.
This article you posted covers the Swedish situation and attitudes pretty well, but I don’t see the quote I was referring to. I saw that very article, along with about a dozen others, when I searched for a source for the quote before posting.
The quote I’m remembering was a couple of sentences, and the one about lockdowns being hard to get out of was the most memorable to me. But the remainder of his (whoever its was) quote was pretty right on too, when he said that the other difficult part of lockdowns is that people become impatient with them and will begin to ignore them after 6-8 weeks!
I’m no expert on Sweden by any means, but I know the country and the people moderately well because I was an exchange student there in high school. And I have stayed in close touch with the family I lived with and re-visited many times over the years. I always have to smile when some people suggest that the US should emulate some aspect of Swedish governance or behavior, etc… The US is definitely NOT Sweden and in many ways never could be! The article posted cites a number of clear differences in attitudes and behavior that we could never see emulated in this country. Not saying bad or good, just different!
I don’t disagree with any of the major points in your reference, nor do I disagree with the sentiment that we should do everything we reasonably can to decrease the case rate and morbidity/mortality of this epidemic. But that said, I’m sure you must agree that, barring an effective vaccine (or hyper-immune globulin enough to treat en-masse…very unlikely), the epidemic will continue, hopefully slowly, until the “herd’s” immunity reaches a sufficient level to extinguish epidemic spread. Mitigation (which is what we’re doing) cannot, practically speaking, prevent that although it could potentially change the demographics of the immune part of the herd. (eg: by preferential isolation of the especially vulnerable)
I aint touching that debate with a ten foot pole.Whatever I say, Kennebac has a response that is seemingly politically correct. Not my style, nor opinion. You said you don’t judge, but later ok to judge, lost me dude.
I think the lockdown is to prevent the perceived risk that a huge number get the wuhan flu and turn up at a hospital and all the ones with compromised immune systems will be in ICU and dying. That will hurt the economy so shut it down before that scenario happens.
Sweden doesnt really have a city with a population density of NY so less risk.
Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note, New England Complex Systems Institute (January 26, 2020).
General Precautionary Principle
The general (non-naive) precautionary principle [3] delineates conditions where actions must be taken to reduce risk of ruin, and traditional cost-benefit analyses must not be used. These are ruin problems where, over time, exposure to tail events leads to a certain eventual extinction. While there is a very high probability for humanity surviving a single such event, over time, there is eventually zero probability of surviving repeated exposures to such events. While repeated risks can be taken by individuals with a limited life expectancy, ruin exposures must never be taken at the systemic and collective level. In technical terms, the precautionary principle applies when traditional statistical averages are invalid because risks are not ergodic.
It really is not too late to turn the coronavirus recession into a sharp V-shaped recession. But I would say that the odds that we are going to do so are less than 10%. Only a very small number of people with any access to the levers of power or the megaphones understand that the keys to rapid recovery lie in boosting aggregate demand quickly by enough and in ensuring that businesses are not sent miss leading "bankruptcy shut down” signals. Heather Boushey understands this. Only a small proportion of other people of status and influence in Washington DC understand this:
Well, you called it. The insanity started when the NRPOs started ferrying in their customers from the Currituck side and the prevailing attitude is ‘There’s no way I’m practicing social distancing and wearing a mask on MY vacation’. A woman got upset when I stood apart from her in a store. I was wearing a mask, she and her 3 kids were not. She got in my face and said in a very nasty tone, “I’m not sick! You people are crazy!” Her little boy got scared and started crying. She turned back to me and spat out “See what you’ve done!”
It’s going to be a long summer.
I feel for my beloved Dare County. My guys down there believe it is too early, but have no say. Some owners have a sense of entitlement, as an NRPO, I don’t. I hope you guys are safe, the invasion is not right at this time. I have an idea what the infection rate is now, and it is low. Check back in 2-3 weeks and see where we are at. Hope I am wrong, we will see. It’s just those kind of assholes you encountered are my biggest concern. Keep your distance in spite of bad decisions by the vacation business. I’d like to visit and fish when this shit has worked itself out. Not a minute before.
The number of cases has shot up from 15 to 22 since last weekend and we now have a case of community spread. That’s just from the NRPOs and the customers they’be been smuggling in. The island doesn’t open to the public until tomorrow.
