[image] Lawrence H. Summers (LHSummers) It’s mostly not our policy that is reducing the performance of the economy, it’s the disease itself. You can open the economy all you want but not many people are going go shopping when they think 10 percent of their neighbors have a potentially fatal, contagious disease. 1:02 AM - 27 Apr 2020 170 69

Herd immunity isn’t really much of a plan, if it’s even successful, dengue fever herd immunity disappears with a change in serotype and there’s a reason there’s such a thing as an annual flu shot. And a vocal minority shouldn’t be the decision maker From Johns Hopkins: “To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.“ Source: Johns Hopkins Univ [image] Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception Bloomberg School of Public Health epidemiologists David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D'Souza explain the misconceptions around herd immunity as we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening.

You mean this fellow? He is Dr Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency [image] Sweden is taking a very different approach to Covid-19 Swedish policy is predicated on trust between citizens and government. Will it work?

Tegnell might be the source of the quote I remember. He’s been pretty widely quoted. I read it somewhere almost a month ago. As I vaguely recall, it was a male person. I was thinking it was the Health Minister, but the H.M. is female (Annika Strandhäll), so that’s probably not right. I hesitated to make that comment on this forum because this audience especially doesn’t let BS go unchallenged and likes to see sources. But the comment, in retrospect just seemed so right on in predicting our present dilemma in the US, I thought I’d relate reading it and maybe someone else who’d seen it could come up with the exact quote. This article you posted covers the Swedish situation and attitudes pretty well, but I don’t see the quote I was referring to. I saw that very article, along with about a dozen others, when I searched for a source for the quote before posting. The quote I’m remembering was a couple of sentences, and the one about lockdowns being hard to get out of was the most memorable to me. But the remainder of his (whoever its was) quote was pretty right on too, when he said that the other difficult part of lockdowns is that people become impatient with them and will begin to ignore them after 6-8 weeks! I’m no expert on Sweden by any means, but I know the country and the people moderately well because I was an exchange student there in high school. And I have stayed in close touch with the family I lived with and re-visited many times over the years. I always have to smile when some people suggest that the US should emulate some aspect of Swedish governance or behavior, etc… The US is definitely NOT Sweden and in many ways never could be! The article posted cites a number of clear differences in attitudes and behavior that we could never see emulated in this country. Not saying bad or good, just different!

I don’t disagree with any of the major points in your reference, nor do I disagree with the sentiment that we should do everything we reasonably can to decrease the case rate and morbidity/mortality of this epidemic. But that said, I’m sure you must agree that, barring an effective vaccine (or hyper-immune globulin enough to treat en-masse…very unlikely), the epidemic will continue, hopefully slowly, until the “herd’s” immunity reaches a sufficient level to extinguish epidemic spread. Mitigation (which is what we’re doing) cannot, practically speaking, prevent that although it could potentially change the demographics of the immune part of the herd. (eg: by preferential isolation of the especially vulnerable)

You are theorizing that herd immunity exists. This isn’t something to take for granted, but rather demonstrated with science. [image] WillyJP: we should do everything we reasonably can to decrease the case rate and morbidity/mortality of this epidemic. Yes we should.

I aint touching that debate with a ten foot pole.Whatever I say, Kennebac has a response that is seemingly politically correct. Not my style, nor opinion. You said you don’t judge, but later ok to judge, lost me dude.

Hiding out, kinda… With diminishing freezer. Aint gonna get sick for not trying to comply with the distance thing.

I was told MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of deaths.

I think the lockdown is to prevent the perceived risk that a huge number get the wuhan flu and turn up at a hospital and all the ones with compromised immune systems will be in ICU and dying. That will hurt the economy so shut it down before that scenario happens. Sweden doesnt really have a city with a population density of NY so less risk.

Going to leave this one here as reference: [The Federal Reserve vs Covid-19]

The Economy vs Pandemic Debate

Scuttlebutt

Topic		Replies	Views
Covid-19, Flying in to Seattle to join a vessel Professional Mariner Forum	125	12040	May 2, 2023
Covid-19 and the economy Professional Mariner Forum	22	2827	March 24, 2020
Who's to blame for Covid-19? Scuttlebutt	92	7313	May 26, 2020
Covid-19 Madness Professional Mariner Forum	292	20131	April 25, 2020
Covid-19 News/Updates Scuttlebutt	785	60430	July 7, 2020

The Economy vs Pandemic Debate

Related topics