OK, here’s my take on it. Although, admittedly I am not in the ‘oil patch’.
You bring up several falacies. The first is that, ‘cause you know someone’ you are all set. The second is that you will go to work as an ‘engineer trainee’ at engineers pay. No where is that done. You will be at deckhands, entry level pay. You “May” get your foot in the door, Depending on ‘relative ability’, but keeping your foot in there will depend solely on you.
You assume that you will just sail through the exams. Not true. You have not even set foot on a boat yet. Living with 5, 9 or 12 other guys for hitch after hitch is not always as easy as it is joked, jabbed and jawed about. I would suggest trying it out for a while, before you commit cash and years into it.
To get an upper level license you would have to work for two or three years, not 8 months. Although some would argue, a QMED is NOT an upper level license. To be honest, I don’t know of ANY shoreside port engineer who would promote a new entry guy after only 8 months on a vessel. Maybe in the Oil Patch it is different, but if you are getting hired on the new builds, with bigger licenses, I sincerely doubt it. You may get on at some ‘less than reputable’ place, but, that in itself would hinder your career. (Then again, if you have nothing to loose…) As mentioned the daily rate is around 200 a day. So for a even time schedule, that comes out to 36,000 year. You mention being aboard for 8 months. That is only 4 months seatime. That isn’t even enough time to apply for anything. Your seatime is basically half a year. To get a QMED takes 6 months of seatime. So that is one year of actual seatime. (you’re home half the time) Take a look at thisschedule. It takes more than a little bit. And, As I said before… The assumption that you will breeze through the exams is not to be taken lightly. If ‘everyone’ could do it, there would be a waiting line at the door of every office.
Regarding the future, If we were that omnipotent we would all be OFF GCaptain, and on our private islands in the Caribbean! The Oil Patch is cyclical. It goes up, and comes down. I have purposefully stayed OUT of the oil patch because of the cycle crashes. It goes EXTREMELY well for a while, then BOOM. Layoffs, and tieups. Nasty part of the business. The current boom seems (to me at least) one of the longest and strongest I can recall. (I have been in the Coastwise Towing industry since 1980) But, During this time I have seen three distinct boom and bust cycles. Where we are in the cycle is up for speculation. We NEED oil. The major companies are spending HUGE in new technology to develop and get it. And the support field needs to keep expanding to meet the exploration and development.