I love it when mariners in the US oil fields get across the board raises because it sometimes means all maritime sectors get raises. Any ideas if or when this will reflect in the US offshore oil fields? Increased activity, higher spot job rates, higher wages?
Not likely. The oil companies aren’t going to make huge capital investments to lower the price of oil. Especially when they view this situation as temporary. Even the Iranians need the straits open.
I have absolutely no clue or context why Baron Trump is mentioned, meme’ed or why others thought his appearance on this thread was funny. This is why the center & right accuse some on the left of suffering from TDS.
But in real, non-obsession discussion, RigZone has an article from analysts saying the spike should be short lived. No pay raises for us 
.
There was a viral post that Baron bought $30 mil of oil futures 2 days before the War with Iran started. It has generally been reported a false
It’s not like the right was ever fixated Hunter Biden or his laptop or anything. Both sides play the silly derangement game. Some clever fellow just coined the phrase TDS to offer as any comeback to criticism of Trump. The excuse has been used so much it has no meaning any longer.
There is little doubt the strait itself will be reopened sooner rather than later. Will the ME stabilize enough to bring production back to normal? Remains to be seen.Meanwhile the oil companies and traders will enjoy the benefits.
First of all, the reason I posted it was because, it was very relevant in a political cartoon kind of way, I wanted to use this creation of mine at least one more time, and because it was freaking funny! I damn near had the little bastard in a little mermaid costume, clam shell boobies and everything before Chat GPT started pissing backwards on me.
As to the matter of context, my good man, I think that it reflects poorly upon you to feign such ignorance. I think we can ALL agree that he’s a logical next in line choice (comedy vein at least) in the Trump chain of incompetents. In the old “Match Game” it would have been the “definitive answer”.
Back to the actual topic…
Nah, like @tengineer1 said, a) it’s temporary. We’ll either run out of interceptors to stop the drones and negotiate a ceasefire, or the rest of the world will diplomatically force Iran to open the straits again… and b) every single boat company is too narrowminded to realize that the mariners are what keep their business able to make a profit (and if you’re Shane Guidry in particular, they’re what keep you able to put Rolex’s and Cartier’s on your family’s wrists at Christmas time for your annual Instagram post).
So no… we won’t see a dime I’m sure.
New Construction is also still extremely expensive
I suspect that Shane Guidry movements would be outliers, and not predictive of a general market direction.
There’s plenty of reason to believe that Toddler Trump will lose interest and attention, declare victory, and move on from the middle east. A short term effect that would limit the economic impact. But Trump doesn’t get to dictate everything. Iran gets a vote as well as the cumulative collateral damage from the military action.
These sorts of things have a way of taking on a life of their own. I’d be leary about making full-throated predictions, particularly in this environment. In my opinion, this market is hanging by a thread and very vulnerable to a substantial bear market.
Trump starts war with Iran.
Iran announces straights of Hormuz are closed.
Oil prices surge.
Mentioning the reason for the surge behind oil prices is “derangement” Get it together. This is some real retard shit.
The obvious reason oil prices are rising is that all those foreign seafarers are unwilling to risk their life to serve “King and Country” (read; “Trump and USA”):
You started it!! YOU show some guts and stop it, like the 7, 8, or is it 10 wars you claim to have stopped.
NO NOBLE PEACE PRIZE FOR YOU UNTIL YOU DO!!
You think offering insurance coverage for shipowners is “showing guts”?:
Well, he certainly shows some guts himself:
Just 2 months ago I was paying the lowest I’ve paid for unleaded in the last 25 years. Less than 2 bucks a gallon. I also seen on the Baker Hughes GoA rig count site that there’s 41 less rigs in the GoA compared to last year. This makes me ponder 3 things. Were prices artificially deflated before & the market intentionally flooded with cheap oil to soften the financial punch a planned Middle-East war would deliver? With 41 less rigs now, does the GoA have room to expand to give an inconsequential solution? I agree with the Rigzone article I posted earlier. I don’t suspect this will be a long term oil crisis because so many other countries have oil they want to sell. 3rd. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the oil from Venezuela was freed up from US sanctions a couple months ago either.
There’s no meaningful extra oil coming to the rescue. While some slack production will tighten up particulary domestically, unless the Strait of Hormuz is open for business, the worlwide supply shortage will dictate the worldwide market. What hurts one, pretty much hurts us all.
Saudi will have about 7mb/d coming out of Yanbu in a day or two. In addition to the barrels on the water, India has bought about 20mbbls of russian crude. This will ease the impact on the closure of the SOH. Big winners - Saudi and Russia.
The US is somewhat self sufficient when it comes to gasoline so the oil companies are now reaping some huge profits. Many years ago this would trigger a windfall profit tax to lessen the gouging of consumers but those days are long gone.
Consumer oil prices won’t track the per barrel cost back down when it happens as consumer prices ride the elevator up but take the stairs back down
“Rockets and feathers.” America Is an Oil Exporter. Why Does a Mideast War Raise U.S. Gas Prices?
There are so many contradictions in that article it’s not worth mentioning. That simplistic overview of oil/gasoline and commodity trading has fooled politicians and normal people for years.The oil producers have spent hundreds of millions perfecting their propaganda over the years and it works! 
and I made a lot of money working with them but I recognize their BS miles away.
How so? Seems pretty straight forward.
Trump won’t make any money on speaking tours as an ex president so he and his mates have to make their billions while they can.