I think your “no shortage” idea is closer to the reality than something preventing supply/demand equilibrium.
Some things to think about:
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enrollment at the state academies is through the roof (literally in some cases). Not every kid is license track but add up the new Third Mates and Engineers that come out every year, put that number next to new construction, and some number of officers that leave the industry. Even including OSVs and tugs there is a steady and large supply of entry level officers.
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changing attitudes about work. Sailing off the board is the original and ultimate “gig job!” Work when you want, for approximately as long as you want, no phone calls when you’re off, and often not a lot of stress about the next gig.
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trade/blue collar jobs are getting a big push now. Some might call it a fetishization. Junior officer jobs at least are blue collar adjacent, and though the academy route is probably easiest they are still achievable without college.
We might be hearing about oversupply rather than shortage before long.