I believe in going by the book. Even if I have experience the book might be wrong I’m still not going to feel right until I see a different book with better information. The longer I sail more reluctant I am to depart from the book.
Here is a good post: First Principles: The Building Blocks of True Knowledge
The difference between reasoning by first principles and reasoning by analogy is like the difference between being a chef and being a cook. If the cook lost the recipe, he’d be screwed. The chef, on the other hand, understands the flavor profiles and combinations at such a fundamental level that he doesn’t even use a recipe. He has real knowledge as opposed to know-how.
Here is the post that fully explains the cook/chef analogy The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Sauce
From that post:
But in life—when it comes to the reasoning “recipes” we use to churn out a decision—we may want to think twice about where we are on the cook-chef spectrum.