Wind speeds are âsubjectiveâ when not taken with a properly working anemometer, sure, but the precision of the number clearly means less than his ability to determine the âdataâ of the wind effect in sufficient detail in relation to decision points. The Captain knew what the winds were doing well enough to know he had to ride to weather (which was his plan) vice make good his course based on how the ship was responding. While some more visibility would have improved subjective evaluation of wind/seas/swell, having a ânumberâ clearly didnât mean much, nor did the lack of functioning anemometer in his plan. The faulty anemometer was known before sailing, so the Captain accepted this uncertaintyâmore properly âimprecisionââas one more bit of risk.
I believe the Captain was relying on barometer more than wind data (degraded as it was). CM also was watching and the Captain clearly is relying on this data in making a key decision to attempt to get back on course suggesting he was using this data to âfixâ his position in relation to the storm more than wind data.
01OCT/0445: CM âdown to nine sixty millibarsâ
It is clear the Captain is relying on his impression of the trend when he queries the CM at 0503AM. CM notes he is âwatching millibars (come up)â. (FWIW: If Captain or CM saw the 5AM EDT public advisory update (unlikely) from NOAA, the minimum central pressure was reported as 948 mBar and the Forecast Advisory from 2300/30Sep (EDT) was estimating central pressure of 951mBar. Previous updates and advisories called for 988mBar. This should worry him severely if the CM reading is correct and logs reflect drops below last advisories. But heâs committed to his position and is dealing with whatâs in front of him, and any trend up following the downward trend noted in earlier discussion is a positive indicator in his decision making that the worst may be over.)
Captain Davidson again confirms with CM. The CM notes âyes [coming up] six-zero and its (now/still) (nine-six-zero/nine-sixty)â.
Again, 0503 Capt: â(cominâ up)?â an unknown reply follows then the Captain orders âletâs put (the rudder) hard rightâ.
0506 Capt: "(come)***(tryinâ to get on) our course.
0510: Capt: ânow weâre on the back side of the stormâ. (which he repeats at 0518)
but at 0514 he had already dropped attempt to get on course and decided to âsteer up into it a littleâ
Some 19 minutes later, 0522, Captain asks âwhatâs the barometer doinâ now @CM?â
CM replies ânine fifty (one)â Maybe this was an error in transcription since it should be alarming. If accurate, this is a drop of 10mBar in 20 minutes which should frighten the crap out of the Captain (or anyone) indicating increasing proximity to the center and that his earlier supposition on his location being on the back side of the storm is an error. Captain is already riding the weather, so his lack of any action is his only move anyway so no comment on the possible significance may seem necessary. Still, I wonder if it was ânine sixty oneâ since 961mBar, up from 960mBar would be further confirmation that the worst may be over. Captain & CM opine about the storm being slow moving, or stalled.
There are two other inquiries for barometer reading i saw. âWhatâs the millibarsâ, first by the 3M at 0631, transcript doesnât have the answer. At 0710, after the loss of prop, the Captain asks for the millibars to relay over the phone, answer is 958.8 from 2M. Whatever his earlier estimations and plan, he must know heâs in it now, noting the drop and is thinking about survival in the face of a closing hurricane.
For overall decision-making though, his use of wind or barometer data may be irrelevant. In his voyage planning decision-making, his consideration of weather impacts were clearly minimized based on history, experience and believing in his controls over any possible vulnerability to weather on the intended voyage. His pre-voyage stated intentions (duck under the storm and sneak by) are confirmed by his actions. His estimation of what to do when things get fierce is matter of fact. See 1418 on 30th: speaking to 2M ââŚget us through the storm. weather rideâand then in the morning when we can see whatâs going on (we decide) to steer backâ. He has a plan, and a contingency plan. Regardless of the wind speed/direction and barometer data and forecasts, he placed himself into a situation where he is riding to weather, dealing with the wind as he knew he would have to if he held to his plan. He was clearly willing to run the risk of sailing into heavy weather and that meant exercising his contingency plan for heavy weather. His observation of wind and barometer data appear to have been serving as means to let him know when it would be over more than precisely maintaining a safe distance in response to storm movement. Unfortunately teh success of his plan and contingency relied on propulsion and ability to hold a heading and he shows a serious lack of understanding of a propulsion vulnerability at 0511.
0511 Capt: ânow (how-how) is this listâ.
SUP-1 (Alternate Chief Engineer sailing Supernumery) "Iâve never seen it list like thisâŚIâve never seen it hang like this"
Capt: â(never?)- we certainly have the sail areaâ
âŚ
Capt:âhow does that affect below your operations as far as lube oil(s) and*â
The answer from SUP-1 notes the low pressure LO alarm, but this is all that is necessary to identify that the Captain didnât know himself already. His initial inquiry to SUP-1 on list gauges an expert engineer assessment meaning he may be reaching out for possible vulnerability (more likely looking for good news about resilience of the plant). SUP-1 answer and (lack of) experience with such a list indicates the Capt may not be able to have total faith in the engineering teamâs experience in this severe a list, possibly. He asks a further probing question on impact to the plant. If he doesnât know about the alarm, unlikely he knows about the shutdown and vulnerability to 15 degree permanent list (if sump is properly filled). It isnât clear SUP-1 communicates it. At 0515 Capt: âuh its CE,- you know heâs got a problem like you said a low level [alarm]â. Nothing about loss of plant being a possibility. Heâs already doing all he can do, whatever is going on below deck is the CEâs problem, so presumably why no new actions are ordered, no new inquiries, it either all works out now or it doesnât. 0521: Captain: âright now Iâm just waitinâ for wind shiftâ.
After this comment, he goes on to note he figured it would be really â#â (presumably euphemism for âbadâ) between two and eight oâclock"â the weather is going according to his estimate, his plan is executing according to his estimatesâriding to weather to wait it out. One might imagine him considering the later problems as outside his planning or bad luck more than having undertaken a risky plan without a full awareness of the vulnerabilities. His comments and actions express a confident reliance in his engineers as much as in the shipâs âgood steelââboth no doubt satisfactorily proven (to his mind) in prior experience.