[QUOTE=company man 1;34432]I’m afraid to even say what I’m thinking. Geronimo! is it possible they never diconnected from the string? NO WAY DUDE.[/QUOTE]
I haven’t heard a reply. …yet.
Help me out cause I got a theory, but I could get commited for it without some back up.
Edit: If you want to send me an IM i’ll take it.
Edit: if you’re doing what I think you’re doing you’re running numbers. Just remember they had to pressure up to 3100 PSI. could have blown off part of the string & thought they disconnected. Remember they laid out 3 bad joints on the 7"
Edit: Go back & reread where they pressured up & then when they broke circulation the pressure was lower than expected?
Here’s the audio of, now yesterday’s, press conference saying they’ve moved on from top kill.
[QUOTE=company man 1;34435]I haven’t heard a reply. …yet.
Help me out cause I got a theory, but I could get commited for it without some back up.
Edit: If you want to send me an IM i’ll take it.
Edit: if you’re doing what I think you’re doing you’re running numbers. Just remember they had to pressure up to 3100 PSI. could have blown off part of the string & thought they disconnected. Remember they laid out 3 bad joints on the 7"
Edit: Go back & reread where they pressured up & then when they broke circulation the pressure was lower than expected?[/QUOTE]You gotta tell me what you think before I go to bed now.
pumpjack hand and cm1 please finish this conversation tonight. Or at least have something in the morning, this seems like the best breaking news source. And dang it CM1 don’t hide your results in your hidey-hole! 
[QUOTE=company man 1;34437]You gotta tell me what you think before I go to bed now.[/QUOTE]
I guess the weight indicator doesn’t work… going to sleep on it, too bizarre, must be a simple explanation…
Sir, this is strictly theory & the gent whom I have probably never met, on the other end can’t believe, , is having a hardtime because he & I are thinking the same thing. But we both know we would be thrown out of the oilfield if we were to ever say it publicly.[QUOTE=dumgeek;34438]pumpjack hand and cm1 please finish this conversation tonight. Or at least have something in the morning, this seems like the best breaking news source. And dang it CM1 don’t hide your results in your hidey-hole! :-)[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=pumpjack hand;34439]I guess the weight indicator doesn’t work… going to sleep on it, too bizarre, must be a simple explanation…[/QUOTE]I bet you don’t sleep a wink tonight thinking about it.
[ATTACH]889[/ATTACH][ATTACH]890[/ATTACH][ATTACH]891[/ATTACH][ATTACH]892[/ATTACH][ATTACH]893[/ATTACH]
Here are some snapshots of a gauges panel taken probably about 12:15 am CDT. They don’t mean anything to me…
Edit: The last pic is a duplicate.
Originally Posted by [B]company man 1[/B]
I’m afraid to even say what I’m thinking. Geronimo! is it possible they never diconnected from [B]the string[/B]? NO WAY DUDE.
[QUOTE=company man 1;34435]I haven’t heard a reply. …yet.
Help me out cause I got a theory, but I could get commited for it without some back up.
Edit: If you want to send me an IM i’ll take it.
Edit: if you’re doing what I think you’re doing you’re running numbers. Just remember they had to pressure up to 3100 PSI. could have blown off part of the string & thought they disconnected. Remember they laid out 3 bad joints on the 7"
Edit: Go back & reread where they pressured up & then when they broke circulation the pressure was lower than expected?[/QUOTE]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]888[/ATTACH] image
[B]casing string[/B]
An assembled length of steel pipe configured to suit a specific wellbore. The sections of pipe are connected and lowered into a wellbore, then cemented in place. The pipe joints are typically approximately 40 ft [12 m] in length, male threaded on each end and connected with short lengths of double-female threaded pipe called couplings. Long casing strings may require higher strength materials on the upper portion of the string to withstand the string load. Lower portions of the string may be assembled with casing of a greater wall thickness to withstand the extreme pressures likely at depth.
Casing is [U]run[/U] to protect or isolate formations adjacent to the wellbore. The following are the most common reasons for running casing in a well:
- protect fresh-water aquifers (surface casing)
- provide strength for installation of [U]wellhead[/U] equipment, including BOPs
- provide [U]pressure[/U] integrity so that wellhead equipment, including BOPs, may be closed
- seal off leaky or fractured formations into which drilling fluids are lost
- seal off low-strength formations so that higher strength (and generally higher pressure) formations may be penetrated safely
- seal off high-pressure zones so that lower pressure formations may be drilled with lower [U]drilling fluid[/U] densities
- seal off troublesome formations, such as flowing [U]salt[/U]
- comply with regulatory requirements (usually related to one of the factors listed above).
[ATTACH=CONFIG]887[/ATTACH] image
[B]bottomhole assembly[/B]
The lower portion of the [U][B]drillstring[/B][/U][B],[/B] consisting of (from the bottom up in a vertical well) the [U]bit[/U], bit sub, a [U]mud[/U] motor (in certain cases), stabilizers, [U]drill collar[/U], heavy-weight [U]drillpipe[/U], jarring devices (“jars”) and crossovers for various threadforms. The bottomhole assembly must provide force for the bit to break the [U]rock[/U] (weight on bit), survive a hostile mechanical environment and provide the [U]driller[/U] with directional control of the well. Oftentimes the assembly includes a [U]mud motor[/U], directional drilling and measuring equipment, [U]measurements-while-drilling[/U] tools, [U]logging[/U]-while-drilling tools and other specialized devices. A simple BHA consisting of a bit, various crossovers, and drill collars may be relatively inexpensive (less than $100,000 US in 1999), while a complex one may cost ten or more times that amount.
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/search.cfm [I]I study more homework tonight.[/I]
[QUOTE=company man 1;34435]I haven’t heard a reply. …yet.
Help me out cause I got a theory, but I could get commited for it without some back up.
Edit: If you want to send me an IM i’ll take it.
Edit: if you’re doing what I think you’re doing you’re running numbers. Just remember they had to pressure up to 3100 PSI. could have blown off part of the string & thought they disconnected. Remember they laid out 3 bad joints on the 7"
Edit: Go back & reread where they pressured up & then when they broke circulation the pressure was lower than expected?[/QUOTE]
CM1, you got an idea I know of where you’re going with this, come on, inquiring minds need to know.
based on your posts - you could be on AC360 Monday. Help us fools understand what you understand.
Please, don’t go into clamp down mode and then hide everything like you discovered or figured out. (I know you need confirmations and all)
You’re dealing with quite a mature and intelligent bunch of people here.
Unlike Jack Nicholson said, WE CAN HANDLE THE TRUTH. Most of us, after all this time know (because we’ve been forced to learn) at least basic well design, and how things are done out there.
Don’t keep us in the dark, after all, you and a couple of other folks have kept this thread alive for what I’m guessing are at the least tens of thousands of interested parties.
Thanks!
[QUOTE=company man 1;34440]Madam this is strictly theory & the gent on the other end can’t believe, whom I have probably never met, is having a hardtime because he & I are thinking the same thing. But we both know we would be thrown out of the oilfield if we were to ever say it publicly.[/QUOTE]
jhc, when did I become a madam? I understand the insane part of it. You won’t be thrown out of anything here, since this is forum, and not live on drilling site. TELL US.
[QUOTE=alvis;34442][ATTACH]889[/ATTACH][ATTACH]890[/ATTACH][ATTACH]891[/ATTACH][ATTACH]892[/ATTACH][ATTACH]893[/ATTACH]
Here are some snapshots of a gauges panel taken probably about 12:15 am CDT. They don’t mean anything to me…
Edit: The last pic is a duplicate.[/QUOTE]
Hey Alvis, unfortunately these photos as best as I can figure are the multiple hydraulic gauges on the ROV itself. I’ve been watching a lot and that’s what they appear to be, monitoring it’s own pressure readings.
Cheers Dude! Thanks for your diligence!
[QUOTE=dumgeek;34446]Hey Alvis, unfortunately these photos as best as I can figure are the multiple hydraulic gauges on the ROV itself. I’ve been watching a lot and that’s what they appear to be, monitoring it’s own pressure readings.
Cheers Dude! Thanks for your diligence![/QUOTE]
If you look at that fourth one, it kinda seems part of the well.
[QUOTE=dumgeek;34445]jhc, when did I become a madam? I understand the insane part of it. You won’t be thrown out of anything here, since this is forum, and not live on drilling site. TELL US.[/QUOTE]
Sorry dumgeek. I’ve had quite a few people email me & a couple were ladies. I’m getting my mams & sirs mixed up. On this casing thing. OK, there is speculation & then there I SPECULATON. This is strictly SPECULATION. With the biggest disclaimer I can put on it. I know Alf has commented on the hook load & I believe one of the other posters & you can go back & check which one it was earlier today pointed out the pressure & asked about the possibility of rupturing the casing. During the evening this evening it hit me that they laid 3 bad joints of casing while running the 7" & that’s a hell of a lot of casing to have to lay out & a definite indication that it is bad casing.
The combination of laying out bad casing, having to over pressure to break circulation before pumping the cement, the note that when they finally broke circulation, the circulating pressure was way too low, & the hookload being way higher than it should have been can lead one to strongly suspect that they never diconnected from the casing & could have pumped the cement job way up the hole above the formation & never had it covered & never were released form the casing & therefore when they puled out of the hole to finish circulating sea water they had the perfect situation for this well to come in full bore balls to the wall.
I can guarantee you if I’ve figured it out so have about at least 1000 other people, but they aren’t going to say anything because you’d be accused of being crazy as a loon. HENCE disclaimer: this is only a WILD ASS THEORY & I DON"T PROFESS WITHOUT THE BACKING OF A HUNDRED OTHER GUYS TO BELIEVE. Which means everything else I’ve been saying is straight down the pipe.
Went back & fixed the other post.
I know that tomorrow sometime a lot of other guys are going to read this post & remembering what you’ve written & now reading between the lines of what some of you have written, I would like anyone who has come to this conclusion as a possibility to grab yourself you know where & speak up. Otherwise it’s a dead issue to me.
[QUOTE=company man 1;34425]I don’t know if you work in the business, but if you do & have ever run casing can you tell me if laying down 3 40’ joints of casing in a 3000’ run is usual?[/QUOTE]
I have worked in the business and I will say that rejecting 3 joints of premium threaded casing in a 75 joint string is not [U]unusual[/U]. They may have had a premium thread technician on site that was examining the connections very closely.
Just curious, roughly how much would 1.2 million gallons of mud cost? Ballpark…
[QUOTE=company man 1;34449] this is only a WILD ASS THEORY & I DON"T PROFESS WITHOUT THE BACKING OF A HUNDRED OTHER GUYS TO BELIEVE. Which means everything else I’ve been saying is straight down the pipe. Went back & fixed the other post. I know that tomorrow sometime a lot of other guys are going to read this post & remembering what you’ve written & now reading between the lines of what some of you have written, I would like anyone who has come to this conclusion as a possibility to grab yourself you know where & speak up. Otherwise it’s a dead issue to me.[/QUOTE]
Thanks so much for at least giving it the best guess you can. Jeezus, you just threw me for a loop here, as this gets more complex with every post.
Sincerely, Thank YOU, for your expertise and conclusive thoughts. It is much appreciated and so far beyond anything CNN, the MSM, or some idiot blogger has come up with, and as well, I’ve about had it with drilling ahead posters.
[QUOTE=alvis;34452]http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37413783/ns/gulf_oil_spill/
Just curious, roughly how much would 1.2 million gallons of mud cost? Ballpark…[/QUOTE]
Depends on weight & what kind of mud.
[QUOTE=Eskimeaux;34451]I have worked in the business and I will say that rejecting 3 joints of premium threaded casing in a 75 joint string is not [U]unusual[/U]. They may have had a premium thread technician on site that was examining the connections very closely.[/QUOTE]
So that would be 14 joints over 13,500’ run. Just how many extra joints is normally sent out on a casing run ?
[QUOTE=company man 1;34455]Depends on weight & what kind of mud.[/QUOTE]
Let’s say 14.5 ppg mud that’s water based. Made with whatever kind of mud they might have used for the top kill.