Deepwater Horizon - Transocean Oil Rig Fire

Offshore
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[I]By the way, dumgeek, you’re no dumb geek. To the dummys you might seem a freak. (smile) I agree much with your concerns … [/I]

[I]May 15th: Admiral Allen said an [U]X-ray type analysis[/U] of the failed blow out preventer (BOP) indicated that it had worked partially and was limiting flow from the well to some degree. He said officials had been able to measure the pressure, learning that oil was flowing into the device at [U]8,000 to 9,000 pounds per square inch[/U] and flowing out into the Gulf at around 2,650 pounds per square inch.[/I]

A bit of trivia, a fire hydrant has about 50psi and my 12ga magnum has peak pressure of 11,000psi. I can blow golf balls to bits with a duck load or a slug. This well’s like that kind of pressure …
Below, I did an analysis of 2 tubes of hypothetical sizes of 12” diameter and 21” diameter, each 13,000 feet long for consideration, using an average of 8,500psi as shown above:

12” x 13,000’ cylinder volume = 1819 Barrels (Petroleum)
Area of 12” circle area = 113.1 x 8,500psi = 480 tons upward lift
Volume 1,819 Barrels (Petro) = 289.2 Cubic Meters = 289,200 Kilograms = 637,576 lbs = 319 tons fresh water
[U]2 x H2O density mud would weigh 638 tons - 319 tons existing = 319 tons additional downward force versus 480 tons upward lift.[/U]

21” x 13,000’ cylinder volume = 5571 Barrels (Petroleum)
Area of 21” circle area = 346.4 x 8,500psi = 1,472 tons upward lift
Volume 5571 Barrels (Petro) = 885.7 Cubic Meters = 885,700 Kilograms = 1,952,634 lbs = 916 tons fresh water
[U]2 x H2O density mud would weigh 1832 tons - 916 tons existing = 916 tons additional downward force versus 1,472 tons upward lift. [/U]

[I]NOT being in the industry[/I], I made an arbitrary mud weight density of 2 x density of fresh water, which is (1,000kg/m cubed X 2) or 2,000kg/m cubed. It seems to me that BP has used very much more mud than would be required to fill these pipes unless outflow is going where it should not be, and that by a very large margin. I must be confused on how we make this mud work like this. It seems to me the mud should be heavier, ideally say 3-4x fresh water density, before it’s mass (length pumped down the tube) can counterbalance the upward force to stabilize this thing to be still long enough to hold concrete reliably. Aside from flow/viscosity rate reductions if any, dense mud is best because less is needed.

Furthermore considering the incredible pressures and heat which I can only estimate at 250-300F, I’d consider dumping segments of knotted Kevlar rope (line) into the [U]junk shot[/U]. When a company made $45 million a day in 2009 they can afford to buy the best junk there is to shoot. Maybe pieces of Kevlar fabric could work better. It seems better than bits of rubber, golf balls, rope, etc. I’m just fishing for a solution … [ATTACH=CONFIG]874[/ATTACH] [U]KEVLAR[/U] - Double Braid utilizes [U]DuPont[/U] Kevlar aramid fiber for a super high strength core and Polyester fiber for an abrasion resistant cover. It is widely used to replace wire-rope where extremely low stretch and high strengths are critical.
[B]DIA.[/B] 3/4" [B]CIRC.[/B] 2-1/4" [B]AVG TENSILE STRENGTH (lbs.)[/B] 33,000
[B]APRX. WEIGHT (pounds per 100 Ft.)[/B]17.1 …Specific Gravity 1.42 x heavy as H2O … Elongation at Break 1.0% … Critical Temp. 350°F …Abrasion: Excellent
[U][SIZE=2]http://www.pelicanrope.com/new03.htm[/SIZE][/U]

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Norwegian sailors accuse BP and Coast Guard for underestimating the oil flow/spill. They where crew members on the boats: Boa Sub C, Ocean Intervention III og Skandi Neptune helping after the incident.

Link: http://www.offshore.no/nyheter/sak.aspx?id=29277

“What BP said was a lie and only proganada” one of them says. They think the flow was much higher than the estimated 5000 bbl.

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[QUOTE=company man 1;33952]You should email that to the company. It might be the best excuse they could come up with. Serously, horsepower isn’t there problem. They got plenty of mud down hole. The mud they put wasn’t heavy enough to stay.[/QUOTE]

Certainly not trying to proffer any excuses for them. I think it is very clear they are not giving us or the government all of the information, especially in light of that transpired yesterday with Coast Guard giving us conflicting information from BP.

I sat down to do some analysis of this and quickly came to the realization that there are just too many unknown variables (at least unknown to us the public). Even the numbers that we have are constantly conflicting and changing. If you say there is enough flow, I will take your word for it until I see evidence otherwise.

One thing that has bothered me: Why don’t they just use some hydraulic shears or clamp and crimp the riser above the BOP but below the holes? Are they worried the BOP will then blow out or do they not have that kind of equipment? I find the latter kind of hard to believe.

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[QUOTE=jksoft;33978] One thing that has bothered me: Why don’t they just use some hydraulic shears or clamp and crimp the riser above the BOP but below the holes? Are they worried the BOP will then blow out or do they not have that kind of equipment? I find the latter kind of hard to believe.[/QUOTE]

Great idea, but impossible to accomplish. Example, from the BOP to the rig was roughly 5000 feet. I believe the riser is in 90 ft sections. From the BOP to the first bend/ kink was reported to be 1500 feet, then another 1500 feet back to the sea floor, with the remaining 2000 feet or so or the riser being shattered and scattered on the sea floor.
Pressure inside the riser at theis time must also be accounted for. It apparently is strong enough to cut hole in the riser at the bend… this is an area of weakened wall strength and thickness, as any pipe that is bent nearly in two will have.

To crimp/ cut/ bend the riser below the leak they would have to overcome the well pressure plus the pressure required to compress the riser. Not saying that it is impossible to do this. But nearly impossible!

Just my two cents.

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[QUOTE=dumgeek;33957]What on earth were we seeing today (Thursday) on the rov? I find it hard to believe that a monster gpm thing is happening, and we’re dumping heavier mud into it and it dumps enough (1000’s of feet) to accumulate so that we can watch 18 hours of mud video being ejected from well pressure… or maybe I should call it modified oil video since the color changed… HELP! What am I seeing here all day?.[QUOTE]

Maybe the 2 videos can help:

This is of May 15
http://www.examiner.com/x-5738-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2010m5d18-New-video-shows-the-BP-oil-leak-from-a-kink-in-the-riser

and this is what we are seeing now& since top kill started
http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam

I too see non difference! That’s oil and gas, still oil and gas.
Correct me if I’m wrong.

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[QUOTE=lfgd521rc;33979]Great idea, but impossible to accomplish.

Am I missing something…??? …Isn’t that EXACTLY what the below is describing…???

see the video at the 9:35 mark: BP Tech Update - May 24

…"Should the top kill not succeed in fully stopping the flow of oil and gas from the well, BP would then intend to move forward to deployment of the LMRP cap containment system. Deployment of this system will involve first removing the damaged riser from the top of the BOP to leave a cleanly-cut pipe at the top of the BOP’s lower marine riser package (LMRP). The LMRP cap, an engineered containment device with a sealing grommet, would then be connected to a riser from the Discoverer Enterprise drillship and then placed over the existing LMRP with the intention of capturing most of the oil and gas flowing from the well.

The LMRP cap is already on site and it is anticipated that this option will be available for deployment by the end of May.

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I would imagine the president is grandstanding in light of his visit to Louisiana today & probably in an attempt to regain ground lost by the democrats over “healthcare reform”. The carelessness of the oil companies is a corporate behavior problem, not an extraction problem & we ALL know who owns him (& every other politician in DC).
While I have actually heard proponents of mandated health insurance tell people to sell their cars (O_o?) & ride a bicycle to work (in Maine. In winter), this is going to backfire big time when it hits the little guy at the gas pump/ in the utility bill/ etc.
Temporary leverage (to urge corporate responsibility) would be one thing. If he is halfway serious about eliminating drilling (off shore or anywhere), his ulterior motive has to be to drive up oil prices for his Wall Street pals.
“our entire way of life devastated” is not an exaggeration.

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CM1 - guys? What are we seeing on the video feeds at 0930-0945 EDT? Is the plume monitor turned away from the riser, or are we seeing something significant? Lots of activity around the stack as well.

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[QUOTE=GunsnHoses;33983]CM1 - guys? What are we seeing on the video feeds at 0930-0945 EDT? Is the plume monitor turned away from the riser, or are we seeing something significant? Lots of activity around the stack as well.[/QUOTE]
The camera is turned away from the leak. They’re obviously waiting for someone to come along and clean the lens I guess? Lol. Maybe they’ve gotten tired of looking at it! (looks like a bunch of runaway sprm cells to me).

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[QUOTE=DogsDogsDogs;33982]I would imagine the president is grandstanding in light of his visit to Louisiana today [/QUOTE]

I watched T. Boone Pickens on Larry King last night…he said that when an airplane crashes due to pilot error, we don’t ground every plane in the sky.

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[QUOTE=stevenPensacola;33986]I watched T. Boone Pickens on Larry King last night…he said that when an airplane crashes due to pilot error, we don’t ground every plane in the sky.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, but when a critical component on a specific plane/engine/etc. fails without explanation, we do indeed ground that equipment.

We also ground every plane in the sky when they start to take buildings in NYC down…

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Johnebe, you are correct. That is what they would like to do if Top Kill doesn’t work.

I’ll stand by my post. Sorry

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Exactly. It might make sense to tell everyone to stop what they’re doing & check, check, triple check their fail safes & to tell the execs (which is, imho, where the real problem lies) that they will be personally responsible if anything goes haywire, but this is counterproductive and will create a consequence ripple in addition to that none of us needs.
(the same dynamic exists/ed between the industry moguls & professional pilots in the ash cloud situation, incidentally) They will continue to make their money while the people who actually produce the oil (drilling & refining) & consumers take the hit.
I don’t do tv, but I’m sorry I missed hearing what he had to say. Smart man.

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[QUOTE=DogsDogsDogs;33993]Exactly. It might make sense to tell everyone to stop what they’re doing & check, check, triple check their fail safes & to tell the execs (which is, imho, where the real problem lies) that they will be personally responsible if anything goes haywire, [/QUOTE]

I sense that that particular word in the future ‘haywire’, will become ‘hayward’.

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From MSNBC: WASHINGTON - The flow of oil from the broken well in the Gulf of Mexico has [B]stopped[/B], the U.S. incident commander Admiral Thad Allen claimed Friday, but BP warned it would be a further 48 hours before it was known whether the “top kill” procedure had been successful. The next 12 to 18 hours would be “very critical” in the effort to stop the gusher which has caused the worst oil spill in U.S. history, Allen said on ABC’s Good Morning America show. BP’s CEO Tony Hayward told NBC’s TODAY show that the top kill attempt, which involves shooting heavy drilling mud into the blown-out well 5,000 feet underwater, was “proceeding pretty well according to plan.” But the exec maintained that the procedure, which has never been attempted before so deep underwater, still had only a 60-70 percent chance of success, although some of the risks had been reduced. “It will probably be another 48 hours before we know if we’ve met the success,” Hayward added. If the procedure works, BP will inject cement into the well to seal it permanently. If the “top kill” attempt doesn’t work, BP says it has a number of backup plans. Either way, crews will continue to drill two relief wells, considered the only surefire way to stop the leak

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Have you figured out yet this started late Wednesday with small (1Bbl per minute) volume incremental pump loads to determine what the well reaction would be? From there the plan was adjusted and will continue will small incremental increases in pressure/volume thru the weekend?

The big dump, boil the ocean, balls to the wall play was never going to happen and certainly did not happen Wednesday morning.

[QUOTE=company man 1;33974]

God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."'We have destroyed 2 tanks, fighter planes, 2 helicopters and their shovels - We have driven them back."
“Surrender or be burned in their tanks.”
“We have them surrounded in their tanks”[/QUOTE]

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[QUOTE=lfgd521rc;33992]Johnebe, you are correct. That is what they would like to do if Top Kill doesn’t work.

I’ll stand by my post. Sorry[/QUOTE]

Standing by your post…? an opinion that the LMRP Cap plan is Impossible OR so close to Impossible that it’s a borderline fraud…???

WoW…I’d have to reread your posts to get a feel for your authority on things…

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Some of the workers are testifying today … Chris Pleasant is giving his account as I write this.

http://us.cnn.com/?cnn_shwEDDH=1 Left hand side of screen under: “LIVE: Hearing on oil rig accident”

Edit: “they” are asking a lot of technical questions that may answer some previous questions. personal side note: “they” do not have much of an idea of what they’re asking.

1259

Mr. Pickens is a great investor, but this time he did not do his homework. In 1979 the FAA grounded the entire DC-10 fleet based on accidents and design issues. The US Military has gone as far as ground every aircraft of every type after accidents.

At this point the US exploration industry is at risk of permanent shut down. The prudent thing to do here is a voluntary shut down of everything offshore coupled with complete top to bottom review. A second accident now could very well be the end of US offshore drilling operations.

[QUOTE=stevenPensacola;33986]I watched T. Boone Pickens on Larry King last night…he said that when an airplane crashes due to pilot error, we don’t ground every plane in the sky.[/QUOTE]

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Why do insist on pie fighting with me. It should be obvious by now I can whip you with half my brain tied behind my back.[QUOTE=rlanasa;33997]Have you figured out yet this started late Wednesday with small (1Bbl per minute) volume incremental pump loads to determine what the well reaction would be? From there the plan was adjusted and will continue will small incremental increases in pressure/volume thru the weekend?

The big dump, boil the ocean, balls to the wall play was never going to happen and certainly did not happen Wednesday morning.[/QUOTE]
I’m pleasantyl surprised you figured out the Baghdad Bob pictures were for you even without the company manual.