[QUOTE=rlanasa;33820]So let me get this straight you claim that while thousands of eyes were watching yesterday morning only your skilled vision caught the images of 18,000 column feet mud going doing followed by 18,000 feet of cement going down then you saw the well upchuck the combined volume of the two loads back up. All of this happened in secret long before the 1PM time when the go ahead to start was granted by the US Government? Then you will have us believe that with well more than 1000 oil industry professionals directly engaged in the process a CG Admiral and senior executives came out and lied to us all live on global television.
You should go on Larry King tonight.
sS[/QUOTE]
First of all the column is no longer 18,000’ it got sawed off by about 5000’ due to the removal of the riser. That is why I would like to see the numbers so I can review if they have taken into account the difference of mud wieght it takes now to kill the well as opposed to the original mud weight since they don’t have the extra 5000’ of heavy fluid anymore. Don’t even try to convince me they have already thought about that & run your mouth pontificating about nuumbers you have not seen & defending these dumbasses.
I can very well see a scenario that after days of pumping the information comes out & it is found out that hey did they take into account the difference between 5000’ of seawater & 5000’ of 14.3 ppg mud & add that to their overall weight? anyone stupid enough to order a partial displacement of a well with seawater before even testing the cement job is definitely stupid enough not to account for such differences in hydrostatic pressure. That is why I want to look at those numbers & You can bet your butt those will come out & be reviewed. If they are & found to be wrong, it will be time for the short ropes & tall trees to come out.
Secondly, they didn’t do it is secret, they did it on live television & the taking heads weren’t smart enough to realize what was going on if they happened to be paying attention at the time.
Edit: I’d also have you believe that BP with all its infinite knowledge & wisdom allowed a multimillion dollar state of the art drilling rig go up in flames & destoy the real estate value of the whole gulf coast.
I assume they have heavy kill mud to surface ? That is the key element in the top kill in combination with flowrate and HP or ? (do I misunderstand what you say ?)
What I said was they were starting with 1 Bbl per minute and observing from multiple angles any issues with the BOP stack and the leaks in the riser kink site. During the afternoon the flow rate was gradually increased to the 20 Bbl per minute rate they are running now. In simple english get mud down the well while doing the least amount of friction and pressure damage on the well and riser. So far the damage seems to be under control. The question is how much mud when down the hole and and how much came out the top. Some of the best math is 23-24 hours to fill the well with mud. By mid afternoon we should know much more. Note the schedule press briefings later today.
[QUOTE=company man 1;33821]Who gave you these numbers? The little indian professor on CNN? The same one who said they would pump 50 gallons a minute down the pipe ? Then this was interpreted to one Bbl./minute which you ran to this board with to act as if you had inside info of what was going on. Where are your numbers coming from? Because this is an IMPORTANT event & hearing some littrle guy on TV that CNN says is an expert & he can’t explain the difference between a gallon & a barrel & you can’t figure that out then quit acting like you are reporting from the bridge of QE4000.[/QUOTE]
The well is in more that 5000 feet of water and was drilled to more than 18,000 feet bellow the sea bed. The original number was 23,000
[QUOTE=company man 1;33823]First of all the column is no longer 18,000’ it got sawed off by about 5000’ due to the removal of the riser. That is why I would like to see the numbers so I can review if they have taken into account the difference of mud wieght it takes now to kill the well as opposed to the original mud weight since they don’t have the extra 5000’ of heavy fluid anymore. Don’t even try to convince me they have already thought about that & run your mouth pontificating about nuumbers you have not seen & defending these dumbasses.
I can very well see a scenario that after days of pumping the information comes out & it is found out that hey did they take into account the difference between 5000’ of seawater & 5000’ of 14.3 ppg mud & add that to their overall weight? anyone stupid enough to order a partial displacement of a well with seawater before even testing the cement job is definitely stupid enough not to account for such differences in hydrostatic pressure. That is why I want to look at those numbers & You can bet your butt those will come out & be reviewed. If they are & found to be wrong, it will be time for the short ropes & tall trees to come out.
Secondly, they didn’t do it is secret, they did it on live television & the taking heads weren’t smart enough to realize what was going on if they happened to be paying attention at the time.
Edit: I’d also have you believe that BP with all its infinite knowledge & wisdom allowed a multimillion dollar state of the art drilling rig go up in flames & destoy the real estate value of the whole gulf coast.[/QUOTE]
This is my first post on here concerning the blowout. I’ve been in the oil & gas service industry for 34 yrs. All of it concerning wireline pipe recovery work. In those 34 yrs. I’ve worked on quite a few blowouts where land rigs have burnt down and others offshore that had to be evacuated and wells that have taken a kick and stuck the pipe and I’ve got plenty of stories to go along with those. I’ve also worked with the majority of the well control specialists in the field , Red Adair, Joe Bowden’s Wild Well Control and Bobby Joe Cudd way back in the ‘70’s when he first started out.
While no two well’s are alike, definitely no two blowouts are alike, especially this one with the wellhead sitting on bottom in 5000’ of water.
I do believe BP is doing their best for being in the situation that they are in and trying what ever they can till the relief well can be drilled. I do fault them for cutting corners and I know that everybody that has worked in the oilfield at one time or the other has done the same, except this time it cost lives. The multi million dollar rig can be replaced, the enviorment will eventually return to normal but the lives that were lost can never be replaced.
Now I would like to commend Company Man 1 on his comments, some for his knowledge of the situation and some that he commented on where he may have been a little over zealous about but not derogatory. Now days, JMO, a company man on a rig is no more than a glorified dispatcher, he can’t turn a valve without approval of the office. What ever happened on that rig that day will eventually come out and we’ll all learn from it. It’s gonna be an expensive mistake. Lord knows we didn’t need to lose lives over it and hopefully it will never happen again…….
[QUOTE=company man 1;33805]
Disclaimer, the preceeding thoughts were brought to you by a fake company man & is subject to attack by posters with no alternative information, facts, solutions, or other useful information. Thank you.
[/QUOTE]
LMAO. . . . are you sure you worked all the accusations that have been levied against you in there
You are wrong in assuming that everyone has commited the sin of cutting corners. There is a huge difference in having to change a procedure & do somehing in a different way than first proposed & cutting corners. Obviously th ecompany man will be held more responsible than a glorified dispatcher in this case. & if I’m gonna take a chance on the grey bar motel for these F>>> ups, then you can damn well bet I’m gonna have a say in how its done. Unfortunately, said company man obviously thought like some misguided posters here, that mother ship BP makes no mistakes & therefore is above being questioned. That is how this whole thing occured in a nutshell.[QUOTE=RogerW;33829]This is my first post on here concerning the blowout. I’ve been in the oil & gas service industry for 34 yrs. All of it concerning wireline pipe recovery work. In those 34 yrs. I’ve worked on quite a few blowouts where land rigs have burnt down and others offshore that had to be evacuated and wells that have taken a kick and stuck the pipe and I’ve got plenty of stories to go along with those. I’ve also worked with the majority of the well control specialists in the field , Red Adair, Joe Bowden’s Wild Well Control and Bobby Joe Cudd way back in the ‘70’s when he first started out.
While no two well’s are alike, definitely no two blowouts are alike, especially this one with the wellhead sitting on bottom in 5000’ of water.
I do believe BP is doing their best for being in the situation that they are in and trying what ever they can till the relief well can be drilled. I do fault them for cutting corners and I know that everybody that has worked in the oilfield at one time or the other has done the same, except this time it cost lives. The multi million dollar rig can be replaced, the enviorment will eventually return to normal but the lives that were lost can never be replaced.
Now I would like to commend Company Man 1 on his comments, some for his knowledge of the situation and some that he commented on where he may have been a little over zealous about but not derogatory. Now days, JMO, a company man on a rig is no more than a glorified dispatcher, he can’t turn a valve without approval of the office. What ever happened on that rig that day will eventually come out and we’ll all learn from it. It’s gonna be an expensive mistake. Lord knows we didn’t need to lose lives over it and hopefully it will never happen again…….[/QUOTE]
The question isn’t are they working harder, the question is are they working smarter? you can bet their efforts will be reviewed if not now certainly later & it will be a tragedy if they had the opportunity to kill this thing & did not take all of the obvious into account. That is why if your proposal is good you do not fear the review & criticism of it. If it is incorrect you have time to correct it before it’s too late. Haven’t we learned anything from this accident?
You really want some laughs, go back & read page 42. That’s funny right there now.[QUOTE=Corky;33830]LMAO. . . . are you sure you worked all the accusations that have been levied against you in there :D[/QUOTE]
I don’t want to know the coast guard who has no understanding of TVDs, Fluid gradients, well porosities, ETC. has to be the ones who approve of this procedure. That is like going to the doctor to get your car tuned up & going to mechanic for open heart surgey.[QUOTE=RogerW;33829]This is my first post on here concerning the blowout. I’ve been in the oil & gas service industry for 34 yrs. All of it concerning wireline pipe recovery work. In those 34 yrs. I’ve worked on quite a few blowouts where land rigs have burnt down and others offshore that had to be evacuated and wells that have taken a kick and stuck the pipe and I’ve got plenty of stories to go along with those. I’ve also worked with the majority of the well control specialists in the field , Red Adair, Joe Bowden’s Wild Well Control and Bobby Joe Cudd way back in the ‘70’s when he first started out.
While no two well’s are alike, definitely no two blowouts are alike, especially this one with the wellhead sitting on bottom in 5000’ of water.
I do believe BP is doing their best for being in the situation that they are in and trying what ever they can till the relief well can be drilled. I do fault them for cutting corners and I know that everybody that has worked in the oilfield at one time or the other has done the same, except this time it cost lives. The multi million dollar rig can be replaced, the enviorment will eventually return to normal but the lives that were lost can never be replaced.
Now I would like to commend Company Man 1 on his comments, some for his knowledge of the situation and some that he commented on where he may have been a little over zealous about but not derogatory. Now days, JMO, a company man on a rig is no more than a glorified dispatcher, he can’t turn a valve without approval of the office. What ever happened on that rig that day will eventually come out and we’ll all learn from it. It’s gonna be an expensive mistake. Lord knows we didn’t need to lose lives over it and hopefully it will never happen again…….[/QUOTE]
Once again I ask you to provide a link or pressure chart to back up your analysis or are you Bagdad BOB?[QUOTE=rlanasa;33825]What I said was they were starting with 1 Bbl per minute and observing from multiple angles any issues with the BOP stack and the leaks in the riser kink site. During the afternoon the flow rate was gradually increased to the 20 Bbl per minute rate they are running now. In simple english get mud down the well while doing the least amount of friction and pressure damage on the well and riser. So far the damage seems to be under control. The question is how much mud when down the hole and and how much came out the top. Some of the best math is 23-24 hours to fill the well with mud. By mid afternoon we should know much more. Note the schedule press briefings later today.[/QUOTE]
There is a very simple and clear explanation why rlanasa has such an extraordinarily concise understanding of the bp press releases, procedures and damage control talking points, and why it is so seemingly important to damage the credibility of anyone who isn’t reading from the script.
Can you guess what that explanation is?
Yes, this is my first post, but I’ve been a (non-petroleum, at least not on the front-end) geologist for over 25 years. As for bp’s crediblity, my estimate of the flow rates last week was 40K-65K bbl/day. This was just after the perfessers came out with their 75-100Kbbl/day based on their observed flow rates and estimates of the riser diameter. Meanwhile, the Coast Guard was unquestioning bp’s ludicrous estimate of 5000bbl/day. Sorry, that was surely a joke, and they knew it. My estimate was based on the hydrostatic pressures (as reported) and the diameters of the constructed well (as reported). I didn’t know about the restrictions such as possible bridging in the well, or the (possibly? Still unclear?) partially closed BOP (now an orifice plate). Knowing those facts, my estimate would have been 25-30K bbl/day. I did that in about 30 minutes with a freaking calculator!
Well, boy howdy, when you look at the pumping rates they need to (“just”, as rlanasa properly says) overcome the pressures of the reservoir fluids, and accounting for the leakage (which would match the oil/gas/sand/debris leakage) you come to 7000bbl/day as reported by rlanasa, uh, I mean bp. That is 25-30K/day.
I think it was Geodude who most concisely described how this process will work. The pressures are what are controlling, the overpumping overcomes the pressure loss due to leakage. They needed extra capacity in case their estimates of loss were too low. Thankfully everything in the system is holding the increased pressure, because if just one of a thousand components failed, game over.
I agree that bp is doing everything (and I do mean everything) they can to seal this well. They are also going to do everything they can to limit their liability, meaning they will do everything they can to underestimate the flow rates and the volume that was released.
[QUOTE=ExCompanyMan;33817]Don’t think this article has been posted yet:
How about not circulating bottoms up?
Maybe they also skimmed on the float collar if they skimmed on the centralizers.[/QUOTE]
Would also be VERY interesting to see the MMS documents. Not sure why, but my mind’s eye is seeing one of those conditional variances stating something along the lines of: assuming positive and negative pressure tests reveal no anomalous indications, a variance to displace with saltwater prior to placing the final plug is granted. . . . or something along those lines. Considering that until you know formation pressure has no clear path to any part of the well you butt is hanging out in the wind, I can’t believe MMS personnel would not CYA by adding statements to any well plan variance to ensure it would become invalid if any unusual indications were noted.
Well I can tell you right out of the gate pumping 1 BPM against that juggernaut is peeing against the wind during Hurricane Katrina. They had their rates up much higher than that within five minutes & are llying about how much they are having to pump at what rates, because thye know if this doesn’t work even the federal government will get wise eventually & fine them & charge royaltiies for the damage. I DON"T CARE ABOUT ANY OF THAT. What I do care about is getting this thing killed & making sure they have th tools to do it with & I can tell you having done about 400 jobs like this I know how to run the numbers & be pretty close. WARNING: see disclaimer in previous post.[QUOTE=rlanasa;33825]What I said was they were starting with 1 Bbl per minute and observing from multiple angles any issues with the BOP stack and the leaks in the riser kink site. During the afternoon the flow rate was gradually increased to the 20 Bbl per minute rate they are running now. In simple english get mud down the well while doing the least amount of friction and pressure damage on the well and riser. So far the damage seems to be under control. The question is how much mud when down the hole and and how much came out the top. Some of the best math is 23-24 hours to fill the well with mud. By mid afternoon we should know much more. Note the schedule press briefings later today.[/QUOTE]
I think you are absolutely correct in your assumptions. That is why in the absence of the police we MUST use caution as our conscience. [QUOTE=Corky;33837]Would also be VERY interesting to see the MMS documents. Not sure why, but my mind’s eye is seeing one of those conditional variances stating something along the lines of: assuming positive and negative pressure tests reveal no anomalous indications, a variance to displace with saltwater prior to placing the final plug is granted. . . . or something along those lines. Considering that until you know formation pressure has no clear path to any part of the well, I can’t believe MMS personnel would not CYA by adding statements to any well plan variance to ensure the variance would become invalid if any unusual indications were noted.
At this point no one can cover anything up. There are people from the government on every boat and more than one thousand directly engaged. In this case all the information will come to the surface.
[QUOTE=company man 1;33838]Well I can tell you right out of the gate pumping 1 BPM against that juggernaut is peeing against the wind during Hurricane Katrina. They had their rates up much higher than that within five minutes & are llying about how much they are having to pump at what rates, because thye know if this doesn’t work even the federal government will get wise eventually & fine them & charge royaltiies for the damage. I DON"T CARE ABOUT ANY OF THAT. What I do care about is getting this thing killed & making sure they have th tools to do it with & I can tell you having done about 400 jobs like this I know how to run the numbers & be pretty close. WARNING: see disclaimer in previous post.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=rlanasa;33827]The well is in more that 5000 feet of water and was drilled to more than 18,000 feet bellow the sea bed. The original number was 23,000[/QUOTE]
Wrongo Bucko, guess the talking points didn’t include that TD was 18,360’ including 5067’ to mud line. Thanks, Thank ya very much.
[QUOTE=rlanasa;33840]At this point no one can cover anything up. There are people from the government on every boat and more than one thousand directly engaged. In this case all the information will come to the surface.[/QUOTE]
Yeh, from the Coast Guard. They aren’t looking for smuggler’s dude. Like I said, counting on the COast Guard in this case is like having your doctor overhaul your car & your mechanic do Open heart surgery on you.
Rla NASA,
I moderate at another website and have done so for the last 5 years. If you have the data or the link to back up your posts, please provide them with your posts. It serves to back up your statement and let others read the same data.
Everyone is here to learn and lend their thoughts toward the situation. While I’m not in agreement with the rate that they are progressing at Macondo at least some of them are doing something. Namely the vessels and rigs immediately above the well.
If you believe the media reports that is your decision. I watch the media video and listen to the hype that they are feeding. Video says it ALL.
It is misinformation like this that avoids so called experts on television, giving correct information, or misinformation that BP obviously wants out there to confound, confuse & misgiuide people. Why not print out TDs, TVDs of all formations, Expected fluid gradients, expected frac gradients, Expected kill weight fluid, expected kill weight cement, all with the disclaimer that the job may have to be adjusted on the fly due to unknown circumstances. This I can understand, deal with, & even defend. You don’t just leave everybody cods hanging in the wind having to guestimate what the hell is going on when you put everyone in this position through your neglegence.
I will go on record. I now believe this to be the case. BP has no idea from one minute to the next what they are going to do & how they are going to pump & are hoping that they will pump enough mud & enough cement until they run out of both & hope it holds. That’s it & there is no use in acting pompous or arrogant about it.
[QUOTE=rlanasa;33827]The well is in more that 5000 feet of water and was drilled to more than 18,000 feet bellow the sea bed. The original number was 23,000[/QUOTE]
