[QUOTE=rlanasa;33840]At this point no one can cover anything up. There are people from the government on every boat and more than one thousand directly engaged. In this case all the information will come to the surface.[/QUOTE]
I’m sure that’s true. Having said that, how many of the government people on every boat out there have any experience in drilling, well control, or capping a catastrophic blowout in 5000+ feet of water? It would be an easy task to PLACE 50 government overseers in an operating room to ensure a cardiovascular surgeon was carrying out a heart transplant correctly, but unless all of those folks were highly trained in the procedure they would have to take the surgeon’s word for the fact that he was following the best course of action.
What was it that CM1 said earlier about that warm liquid running down our backs??? Please stop peeing on our boots & trying to tell us all that it’s raining.
This thread is a veritable treasure of information to people looking for non-censured info from people who know what they are talking about.
As I’ve said before I’ve recorded most of the BP feed for about 40ish hours. Since there is some “he said she said” going on atm I’d be more than happy to put the clips of what you are discussing on youtube (or anywhere else). Just let me know which clips you would like to see (ie from what time and for how long) and I will post the links here.
[QUOTE=company man 1;33842]Yeh, from the Coast Guard. They aren’t looking for smuggler’s dude. Like I said, counting on the COast Guard in this case is like having your doctor overhaul your car & your mechanic do Open heart surgery on you.[/QUOTE]
Let me try this one more time for you. There are industry professionals from every meaningful company and role working on this issue 7X24. When the dust settles and the last Bbl stops there will be no secrets on how this hole was fixed. Too many talented people watching in too many locations. When things go this bad with this many people involved the truth always comes out.
If you want you can go back to your dreams of secret high volume deep water pumping actions now.
I don’t know Who the hell knows? Does BP know? & that would have a huge effect on kill weight fluids. [QUOTE=Channelcat;33847]This was a kick-off wasn’t it? What was TVD?[/QUOTE]
“Based on three separate methodologies, outlined below, the independent analysis of the Flow Rate Technical Group has determined that the overall best initial estimate for the lower and upper boundaries of flow rates of oil is in the range of 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.”
[QUOTE=rlanasa;33849]Let me try this one more time for you. There are industry professionals from every meaningful company and role working on this issue 7X24. When the dust settles and the last Bbl stops there will be no secrets on how this hole was fixed. Too many talented people watching in too many locations. When things go this bad with this many people involved the truth always comes out.
If you want you can go back to your dreams of secret high volume deep water pumping actions now.[/QUOTE]
Are you still here Bob? I refer you to the square containment dome. I believe the SMARTEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD configured that disaster.
"We are destroying the American army. We are killling them in their tanks. We will very shortly have total victory for our great leader Sadaam Hussein.’’ Bagdad BOb.
I really don’t understand why the live video is currently showing the ROV “throwing a wrench into the works” at the top of the stack.
Seriously, Kudo’s to TO for holding the memorial service in Miss. Not defending them or BP, just saying they did a good thing knowing they would be accused of “using the moment”. I applaud them for doing it anyway. I’ve seen them trying to do the right thing in other matters lately, hope they can also admit mistakes and learn as this develops.
There are some very good hands working at Transocean, I don’t think anyone is disputing that fact. Any big corporation will move mountains to reduce their liability but that doesn’t mean there are not good, solid folks at the deck plate level just trying to do things the right way. Pretty hard to find hands who have been on the rig side of the industry who have not had some connection to TO at one point or another during their career.
“Based on three separate methodologies, outlined below, the independent analysis of the Flow Rate Technical Group has determined that the overall best initial estimate for the lower and upper boundaries of flow rates of oil is in the range of 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.”[/QUOTE]
Interesting. Did you read that very closely? The mass balance estimate placed their upper band at 25,000bbl/day, and they only based it on the visible surface plume and an estimate of dispersed, burned, or recaptured plume. In other words, that doesn’t account for any oil that may be subsurface due to either being fractions that are neutrally bouyant, heavier than water or encapsulated in disbursant. Not all oil floats, that is what they call a Dense, Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL). The other two methodologies are not very convincing either as described.
Frankly, I put more stock in the volumes of mud that are required to overcome the reservoir pressure. They should be roughly equivalent, with the pumped volumes being just slightly higher.
Anyway, they do say they will be revising and doing more investigation regarding this and this is a prelimary estimate. So was 5000 bbl/day…
I concur 100% with this post.[QUOTE=CPTdrillersails;33857]Interesting. Did you read that very closely? The mass balance estimate placed their upper band at 25,000bbl/day, and they only based it on the visible surface plume and an estimate of dispersed, burned, or recaptured plume. In other words, that doesn’t account for any oil that may be subsurface due to either being fractions that are neutrally bouyant, heavier than water or encapsulated in disbursant. Not all oil floats, that is what they call a Dense, Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL). The other two methodologies are not very convincing either as described.
Frankly, I put more stock in the volumes of mud that are required to overcome the reservoir pressure. They should be roughly equivalent, with the pumped volumes being just slightly higher.
Anyway, they do say they will be revising and doing more investigation regarding this and this is a prelimary estimate. So was 5000 bbl/day…[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=company man 1;33858]I concur 100% with this post.[/QUOTE]
Having said that, their mass balance estimate may have contained an estimate of the fraction that is DNAPL, based on knowledge of the crude in this deposit. They may also have estimated volumes of oil contained in disbursant (which would be suspended in the water as an emulsion) based on the amount of disbursant used and a guess at its effectiveness. Maybe they just didn’t mention that they included those in the estimate. Anyway, their upper bound is 25,000bbl/day, and “apparently” bp is pumping 30,000bbl/day of mud, so…
I read on CNN TV last night they were pumping 65 bpm. 1440 minutes in a day…mmm…let’s see… gotta take my shoes off on that one…93,600 BPD. 2100 Gals. /Min. = 50 BPM =72,000 BPD. figure 10% or so to overtake rate would give anywhere from 60,000 BBLS. to 80,000 BBLS. / day? They are going to have a hard time releasing these numbers for obvious reasons which I do nt CARE about at all & they should realize that plugging this thing is more important than covering their fannies financially.[QUOTE=CPTdrillersails;33861]Having said that, their mass balance estimate may have contained an estimate of the fraction that is DNAPL, based on knowledge of the crude in this deposit. They may also have estimated volumes of oil contained in disbursant (which would be suspended in the water as an emulsion) based on the amount of disbursant used and a guess at its effectiveness. Maybe they just didn’t mention that they included those in the estimate. Anyway, their upper bound is 25,000bbl/day, and “apparently” bp is pumping 30,000bbl/day of mud, so…[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=stevenPensacola;33860]Graphic on CNN (tv) says that they are pumping 2,100 GPM of mud.[/QUOTE]
Wow, that’s bad. That is 70,000 bbl/day. If that is right and their previous published pumping rate of 30,000bbl/day was correct and has doubled, this is very bad. Something has either blown or there is significant loss somewhere, and that is not a good sign.
[QUOTE=CPTdrillersails;33864]Wow, that’s bad. That is 70,000 bbl/day. If that is right and their previous published pumping rate of 30,000bbl/day was correct and has doubled, this is very bad. Something has either blown or there is significant loss somewhere, and that is not a good sign.[/QUOTE]
Please forgive me if this is a dumb question. Is it not possible that they are pumping mud into the cavern (?)
It is not a dumb question at all & yes all BS aside that is pretty much what they are doing.[QUOTE=DogsDogsDogs;33865]Please forgive me if this is a dumb question. Is it not possible that they are pumping mud into the cavern (?)[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=CPTdrillersails;33864]Wow, that’s bad. That is 70,000 bbl/day. If that is right and their previous published pumping rate of 30,000bbl/day was correct and has doubled, this is very bad. Something has either blown or there is significant loss somewhere, and that is not a good sign.[/QUOTE]
You can see the holes in the BOP stack. None of that is going into the riser. It is possible that it was leaking that bad all along though.
Edit: looking at the stack it does appear that there are 6 flow paths. I could only see 4 last night.
Newsflash: Fox news: "There is mud being pumped into the well bore & it is being monitored, said Admiral Thad allen. “BP first used estimates of 1000 BBLS. /day then 5000 BBLS/day. I said all along I didn’t put any credence into those estimates.” Gee, I wonder when & where he said that? Can anyone post a link, source, quote, anything that suggest that?
