Twin milestones in the pandemic today: 140,000 confirmed dead, 4 million confirmed infected, in the USA. Feel free to correct my math below. I’m a skipper, not a statistician.
4 million confirmed cases in the USA since January. But CDC says the number of actual cases may be 10X larger. Hence, 40 million theoretical infected people.
The mortality rate: 140k/4 mil=0.035, (3.5%).
But using the theoretical number of cases, the mortality rate might be only 0.0035 (0.35%).
The U.S. population is 330 million.What if no one had taken any precautions against infections, and all 330 million Americans had been infected since January? Assuming a mortality rate of .0035 (the lower, theoretical mortality number) about 1,155,000 Americans would have died in seven months.
Of course, some people have natural immunity, for whatever reason, so the entire 330 million population would not have been infected, and the theoretical deaths might have been fewer. Then again, hospitals would have been overwhelmed with such a high death rate, and doctors and nurses would have died in higher numbers than they have, reducing available medical care. So the number of deaths might have been higher. We’ll never know.
No particular point with all of this, and as I said, I may have made a big math mistake here. Let me know.
Hospitals have been losing money by not taking elective surgeries .Many of those beds have been taken by recently opening up elective surgeries to help the bottom line. Not all, but quite a few.
If 40 million are infected (it’s at least that many), the horse is already out of the barn, it’s too late to lock the barn door. We might throw up a few hurdles to slow the horse down, But it’s going jump or go around them.
Yes, throw up all the hurdles you can: masks, gloves, hand washing, hand sanitizer, social distancing, and avoid dangerous places, like bars, to try to make the horse detour around you and your close contacts. That will protect you for awhile, maybe long enough for a vaccine to be developed, and for better therapies.
If we don’t develop a vaccine or effective treatments, 1 million dead over the next two years is quite plausible.
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Meanwhile wear a mask while around other people. They are not that heavy.
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Cooperation is not that invasive. Why can’t the US get it together?
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I was looking up some other information and I came across this ancient news item, from way back in May 2018 (In other words, a century ago). Laugh or cry? Still deciding. (Edited at …)
Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly
The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.
The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic…He is not being replaced.
…The personnel changes, which Morrison and others characterize as a downgrading of global health security, are part of Bolton’s previously announced plans to streamline the NSC… White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert who had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks, is out completely. He left the day after Bolton took over last month.
…His exit comes against the backdrop of other administration actions critics say have weakened health security preparedness, including dwindling financing for early preventive action against infectious disease threats abroad.
“It seems to actively unlearn the lessons we learned through very hard experience over the last 15 years,” said Konyndyk, now a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “These moves make us materially less safe. It’s inexplicable.”
…“The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern,” she told the audience. “Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.”
–END–
Huh. This was back in 2018. Didn’t some guy say we couldn’t have predicted our present situation? (I’d like to cry, but I don’t want to get my mask wet.)
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My hermit life is not so bad. My black bear dog and garden keep me occupied. I do wear a mask and gloves for the occasional fill up at the gas station. My new SUV purchased in November is approaching 1100 miles. I elbow shake with my sons. We welcome babysitting our grand dogs over the weekends. Lots of room in our backyard and a decent vacuum cleaner for when they leave. A few protestors around, they and our cops are taking care to keep it peaceful, so far.
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No problem, they found someone to replace him already.
I can see myself joining her church. The voices in my head are telling me that the nymphomaniac witches in those sexual dream encounters all look like beautiful models and also very flexible, if you know what I mean…
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It sounds like the Trump family has a pew there:
“Children need to be whipped,” she declared in a 2015 sermon"
I like her more and more but something doesn’t add up. She’s black. I thought Trump was racist…
Cut back on the hydroxychloroquine for a few days, see if your mind clears up. I took it for malaria years ago and started hallucinating took a week or two until it was out of my system. 
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More:
Trump this afternoon:
“We’re seeing improvements across the major metro areas and most hot spots. You can look at large portions of our country, it’s – it’s corona-free,” Trump said Tuesday afternoon. “But we are watching very carefully California, Arizona, Texas and most of Florida is starting to head down in the right direction – and I think you’ll see it rapidly head down very soon.”
Florida Corona stats this afternoon:
“The death toll in Florida jumped to 6,240 Tuesday after the state health department reported a record 191 additional fatalities, NBC News reported. That is the highest 24-hour number since the start of the pandemic.”
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Nymphomaniac witches are the best kind.
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I just wish they weren’t all squirters, because I thought I might have pee’d the bed again, but now I know its my opposite-sex-dream-self getting her sex on with some hung demon sex machine. So much laundry everyday though. At least now I can tell my wife it isn’t my fault.
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Yesterday’s milestones:
- 6 months since the U.S. first C19 deaths, which occurred near Seattle.
- 150,000 American dead, and counting.
- Herman Cain, businessman and former presidential candidate, passed away from C19. God bless him, and condolences to his family.
It is not known where Mr. Cain contracted the virus, but he started having symptoms after attending the POTUS45 Tulsa rally, where he did not wear a mask. He tweeted against wearing masks around July 4th, and tweeted negative comments about a future vaccine.
We all make mistakes. They don’t make us bad people. We’re only acting badly if we don’t learn from other people’s mistakes.
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Rule 1. Don’t do stupid shit.
Rule 2. There’s a disease you can catch inhaling other peoples sneezes, coughs or shouting. So wear a mask lest you be guilty of violating Rule 1.
Your “freedom” ends where my family’s liberty to not be infected by you begins.
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Cause of Death: Dumbassery
“Geez, another one down.”
No doubt he proved a point … too bad for him it wasn’t what he intended.