Twin milestones in the pandemic today: 140,000 confirmed dead, 4 million confirmed infected, in the USA. Feel free to correct my math below. I’m a skipper, not a statistician.
4 million confirmed cases in the USA since January. But CDC says the number of actual cases may be 10X larger. Hence, 40 million theoretical infected people.
The mortality rate: 140k/4 mil=0.035, (3.5%).
But using the theoretical number of cases, the mortality rate might be only 0.0035 (0.35%).
The U.S. population is 330 million.What if no one had taken any precautions against infections, and all 330 million Americans had been infected since January? Assuming a mortality rate of .0035 (the lower, theoretical mortality number) about 1,155,000 Americans would have died in seven months.
Of course, some people have natural immunity, for whatever reason, so the entire 330 million population would not have been infected, and the theoretical deaths might have been fewer. Then again, hospitals would have been overwhelmed with such a high death rate, and doctors and nurses would have died in higher numbers than they have, reducing available medical care. So the number of deaths might have been higher. We’ll never know.
No particular point with all of this, and as I said, I may have made a big math mistake here. Let me know.