Of course it will become endemic. That was predicted early-on in the pandemic. It will lurk around just like the flu, but with greater lethality. A large fraction of mankind will be immunized against it, at which point we will just exist with it. We will likely have to take subsequent vaccinations for the mutations of the virus which will inevitability occur, just as with flu.
China might create another type.
Or mutated variants that is resistant to present vaccines MAY occure anywhere in the world, Shortage of vaccines due to hording by rich countries COULD trigger such mutations.
Or one could develop among the idiots that refuse to be vaccinated for US domestic political reason. If you know any such idiots please tell them that they are not only putting their own life at risk, but that of their families, friends, or anybody else of the same kind that they happen to meet with.
Nobody is safe just because they are vaccinated. Unless most of the world’s population are immunized, or a new vaccine is developed and distributed worldwide BEFORE such mutated viruses develop into a new deadly pandemic.
PS> The question here was; Could Covid-19 become endemic? We don’t need any more stupid accusations based on lack of knowledge, or on biases.
(Or conspiracy theories deliberatly spread for political reasons)
Rich countries are not really hording vaccines, developing countries are just not ordering them.
If developing countries ordered the vaccines they would get them.
It is in any nations interests to look after the citizens that country first and foremost, so it make sense for governments to try and offer a vaccine to everyone in their own country before they start using the countries money to buy vaccines for other countries.
A lot of rich countries are reaching high levels of vaccination, once everyone has been offered one you will probably see them spending more of their money vaccinating people in other countries.
Many governments in developing countries are probably purposefully not ordering vaccines because they know that they will probably eventually get given them by governments of developed countries.
It is the governments of developing countries who are to blame for not ordering vaccines, most developing countries are highly corrupt, they would rather steal vast amounts of the people’s money than spend it on vaccine.
Many developing countries would probably be developed countries by now if they weren’t so corrupt and didn’t have such seemingly stupid governments, lots of them sit of vast amounts of natural resources and have been pumped full of international aid for 7 or 8 decades, they should be developed by now but they are not.
It MAY be better protection of own people to ensure that people in other countries are vaccinated as well, thus stopping the virus from spreading and mutating into something even more deadly.
Unless you can obtain 80-85% immunity and isolate your country 100% it is NOT POSSIBLE to guarantee full protection of any country and Covid-19, or worse,. will turn endemic.
This is not a domestic political question, or something to weaponize against you perceived enemies.
PS> Distribution of vaccine through the COVAX program can only work if rich countries stop hording vaccines and the pandemic will not stop before this happen:
Do you know of any ‘rich’ European country, stocking vaccines for an improbable need in the future? That would be rather foolish, who knows if today’s vaccines will be efficient next year? OK, I do not now what happens in Norway…
All countries in SW-Europe are waiting for vaccines to be used ‘today’…
Due to expiration dates and cold storage, many of the vaccines MUST be used rather quickly. The presently manufactured vaccines are useless in the near future. Perhaps one of many reasons that explains why USA is so eager to “Help”. Have a shitload of vaccines that idiot “Non-vaxers” are too friggin stupid to use. Sorry pals, your shit is going to people and countries that want and need it.
Norway is part of the EU distribution system and gets only what they can use . The exception is the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is not used here, so the Norwegian quota of that type goes into the Covax system, as far as I know.
Norway; Status per 04.June,2021:
The Malawian government got given 102,000 doses but ended up burning about 20k doses because they didn’t administer them fast enough, there wasn’t much demand there to actually get vaccinated.
A lot of developing countries are also not ordering vaccines because most of the people there don’t actually want to be vaccinated.
Rich countries are not hoarding vaccines, the vaccine manufactures only make vaccines if they are ordered, if the poor countries don’t order the vaccines then the manufacturers just won’t make them for them.
By making massive vaccine orders the rich countries are actually helping the situation because it is incentivising the manufacturers to ramp up their manufacturing capacities, if the rich countries didn’t make such big orders they wouldn’t expand their manufacturing because the poor countries are not ordering much.
Costa Rica would sure like a boost.
It’s been an assumption for some time that C19 will be endemic. Moderna is trialing a combination Covid/Influenza booster.
The world will get back to its feet in fits and starts. There will be outbreaks here and there. Brazil is especially bad off right now because of Bolsonaro who openly mocks mask wearing, vaccines and other Covid treatments. He had it, survived it, and has turned it into a rite of passage sort of thing.
There is an interesting article in the Seattle Times newspaper this weekend, highlighting how amazingly well the vaccines prevent people from getting infected, and illustrating how C19 can become endemic.
My own conclusion from the stats is simple: unvaccinated people will lead to C19 becoming chronic in society, when high vaccination rates would most likely rub it out.
In case the link is behind a paywall, I’ll include some of it here [edited at…]. The column is by opinion columnist, Danny Westneat:
…epidemiologists at King County [Washington] decided to take a deeper look at 15,397 local COVID cases, spread over April and May…They then cross-referenced each case history with the statewide vaccination registry… of the 15,397 positive cases, 14,895 were in people who hadn’t been fully vaccinated. That’s 96.7% of all local cases in April and May — a period in which King County passed the 50% vaccinated threshold, meaning half the population had been inoculated and half had not.
“It’s a very clear result,” Duchin said. “It leads to a basic conclusion: Who’s left to catch COVID-19? People who are unvaccinated.”
…Across the state, the Washington State Department of Health reports that between April 3 and May 29, there were 1,358 “breakthrough” cases in which someone who was fully vaxxed still caught COVID. But during that same period, the state reported 63,751 cases among the unvaccinated — which is 98% of the total.
“We’re getting to the point where it’s a tale of two societies,” says Dr. Umair Shah, the state health secretary.
Shah reported this past week that unvaccinated people between ages 45 and 64 are now being hospitalized for COVID at rates 21 times higher than the vaccinated.
“It’s throughout the country that you’re seeing this split,” he said. “You have one society that is protected fully and is starting to go about its business … and another that is still at high risk of transmission and infection.”
Recently the hospital in Bend, Oregon, reported that it had seen 500 COVID patients since March — and 98% of them were unvaccinated.
The belief that a virus with as high of an R0 number as Covid can be wiped out with universal vaccination stems from a poor understanding of epidemiology, science, and the vaccines themselves.
The vaccines are not sterilizing. The vaccinated can and do spread SARS-COV-2, they just don’t develop severe symptoms and they are contagious for a shorter period of time. This was demonstrated in the trials and many times since and isn’t up for debate.
Using the vaccines to protect the vulnerable will result in evolutionary pressure selecting for less lethal strains of SARS-COV-2 until it joins the myriad of other coronavirus, rhinovirus, and influenza strains that afflict humanity but usually without a lethal result in the healthy.
Vaccinating every fucking 2 year old will result in potential mutations to the virus that are lethal in unvaccinated populations.
You may be fine with a future in which every human is dependent upon coronavirus booster shots to live, but many of us are not.
The vaccines, especially the vaccines used in the United States, reduce transmission significantly by preventing most people from getting infected in the first place. If we achieved full vaccination, there would simply be so little opportunity for spread that outbreaks could not be sustained.
This isn’t Marek’s, we’re not the chickens here, thank God. The dire ramifications of a perfectly leaky vaccine for a virus with a lot of room to maneuver biologically just aren’t in play with the present covid situation.
Any disease that animals can harbor is more or less impossible to eliminate through vaccination. You may not sustain outbreaks but you won’t eliminate the disease.
Based on what, good vibes? You can’t fearmonger about the unvaccinated causing lethal mutations then try to claim the virus can’t mutate inside the vaccinated.
If you’re saying that roughly 5% of vaccinated people “can and do spread SARS-COV-2” then you have statistical grounds to stand. If you’re saying all vaccinated people do, then you have no ground to stand on. Who says so?
The CDC, from their website:
Based on evidence from clinical trials, all COVID-19 vaccines approved for use in the United States were effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who received two doses …
From the Moderna fact sheet:
In an ongoing clinical trial, the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine has been shown to prevent
COVID-19 following 2 doses given 1 month apart…
John Hopkins University is more nuanced. They state that vaccines will prevent you from getting the illness, and also that they may reduce the severity of any illness if they do not prevent it completely.
… vaccine will protect someone who receives it by lowering the chance of getting COVID-19 if the person encounters the coronavirus. More important is whether the vaccine prevents serious illness, hospitalization and death. At this time, all three vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19. Widespread vaccination means the coronavirus will not infect as many people…
The Mayo Clinic says the same thing:
A COVID-19 vaccine might:
** Prevent you from getting COVID-19 or from becoming seriously ill or dying due to COVID-19*
** Prevent you from spreading the COVID-19 virus to others*
So the CDC, John Hopkins University, and the Mayo Clinic all say that C19 vaccines may prevent you from getting and spreading C19. They don’t say it is 100% effective, because no medication ever is. At least two vaccines are about 95% effective. Note that the smallpox vaccine was only 95% effective, and yet smallpox has been all but eradicated.
Mind you, in the second post in this thread I agreed that C19 will become endemic.
My question is, where do you get your medical info, and why do you think it is better than that issued by some of the most brilliant minds of the American medical community?
The data doesn’t show that at all. You’re going off the reported cases of Covid-19, which is the illness caused by SARS-COV-2. That makes no sense, as people with no or few symptoms that have been vaccinated would not be going to the hospital for an illness they don’t have.
The problem with your repeated use of the ‘appeal to authority’ logical fallacy is you don’t bother to do any of the boring dry work of understanding the authorities you’re appealing to past reading some clickbait articles.
If you did, or if you read any Victorian literature, you wouldn’t make the mistake of bringing up smallpox.
Just get the damn shots people. This meandering conversation is stupid. The science proves it, less people are dying or becoming infected due to the vaccines… To the non-vaxers, I hope it is not your family that suffers a loss because you “feel ok”.
We need to have zero tolerance for these crazy anti-vaxers:
No licenses, no school, no access to flights or other public transportation, no health insurance, no unemployment, no welfare, no jobs, etc., etc.