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Which companies in the GoM will no longer exist by this time next year?

Was talking with another gentleman who has been in the maritime industry for 25 years and he believes that these companies will be gone:

Gulfmark
Harvey Gulf
Has concerns about ECO

This is on top of the shipyards that may shut down as well.

The companies to make it:

Seacor
Tidewater
Otto Candies
Hornbeck

I know that HOS is looking at potential buyouts. Seacor is as well from what I hear.

Thoughts?

I think this other “gentleman” needs to have his head examined. Anyone that can predict the future should be dissected for scientific purposes.

[QUOTE=Quimby;175638]I think this other “gentleman” needs to have his head examined.[/QUOTE]

To be honest a list of hypothetical “will fail/pass” entities is pretty much meaningless because we don’t have any context. Who is this “gentleman”? What qualifies him to provide an opinion? (someone can be in an industry for 25 years and have no understanding of how it truly operates… the janitor doesn’t know how Google is run I’m pretty sure). Even if he has some relative qualifications that might mean his opinion is worth listening to… what is the reasoning behind his picks of winners and losers? To be honest, without more information… this post really doesn’t begin to provide any value.

Just speculation, but some of those companies supposedly, when a boat is splashed it’s already paid off. Also some of them weren’t aggressively building or buying as others were. Some factors there…

[QUOTE=Quimby;175638]I think this other “gentleman” needs to have his head examined. Anyone that can predict the future should be dissected for scientific purposes.[/QUOTE]

so choice…it takes no clairvoyance on anyone’s part to know that the offshore industry was way overbuilt based on irrational exuberance and that the piper will be demanding payment. The companies who are already leveraged to the hilt will be unable to borrow to keep paying obligations and in this market selling assets is not an option so those who run out of cash and are unable to find any will go belly up. It isn’t just the offshore, it is just business. Companies who borrow too much and have revenues plummet go bankrupt.

those who are not heavily leveraged and still have positive cashflow will be in the driver’s seat when it comes to picking over the carcasses of the dead. Something makes be believe Charles Fabrikant is going to be one of these winners. I often wondered why he had such a conservative fleet renewal program at Seacor and now I see why. He was just going to wait until he could pick up new HGIM vessels at a nickel on the dollar. In 2016 I hope to see Shane Guidry with a sign and a tin cut on the side of the intersection of the four lane and the Walmart in Galliano.

.

ECO pays off wayyyyyy too many elected government officials to go under, duhhhhh, everybody knows that

[QUOTE=c.captain;175645]so choice…it takes no clairvoyance on anyone’s part to know that the offshore industry was way overbuilt based on irrational exuberance and that the piper will be demanding payment. The companies who are already leveraged to the hilt will be unable to borrow to keep paying obligations and in this market selling assets is not an option so those who run out of cash and are unable to find any will go belly up. It isn’t just the offshore, it is just business. Companies who borrow too much and have revenues plummet go bankrupt.

those who are not heavily leveraged and still have positive cashflow will be in the driver’s seat when it comes to picking over the carcasses of the dead. Something makes be believe Charles Fabrikant is going to be one of these winners. I often wondered why he has such a conservative fleet renewal program at Seacor and now I see why. He was just going to wait until he could pick up new HGIM vessels at a nickel on the dollar. I hope to see Shane Guidry with a sign and a tin cut on the side of the intersection of the four lane and the Walmart in Galliano.[/QUOTE]

When I left the oilfield in late '85, there were so many companies in the melee cutting rates and each other’s throats. When the dust settled, the RRFs were full of Title XI repos for years. Not as many players now and I hope MARAD learned their lesson…but I’m still a skeptic.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

[QUOTE=injunear;175650]When I left the oilfield in late '85, there were so many companies in the melee cutting rates and each other’s throats. When the dust settled, the RRFs were full of Title XI repos for years. Not as many players now and I hope MARAD learned their lesson…but I’m still a skeptic.[/QUOTE]

yes MarAd has learned and today guarantees the mortgages on OSVs only built for foreign buyers (I am not shitting you!)

Company: Boldini, S.A.

Total Project Cost: $291,828,176

Loan Guarantee Amount: $240,756,000

Date Approved: 03/08/11

Shipyard: Eastern Shipbuilding Group, Panama City, FL

No. of Ships: 5

Type of Project: Platform Supply Vessels

at least the taxpayer isn’t going to be soaking in the same tub as the owners this time as they take their warm bloodbath

You play golf with the bankers if you want to know who’s in trouble.

Well I guess we will have to wait and see. Gary has been in bankruptcy, foreclosure, seizure, about to be bought by Turdwater, Seacor, etc. for the last 24 years I’ve been down here. The water isn’t sufficiently chummed for mergers and acquisitions just yet.

[QUOTE=Fraqrat;175668]Well I guess we will have to wait and see. Gary has been in bankruptcy, foreclosure, seizure, about to be bought by Turdwater, Seacor, etc. for the last 24 years I’ve been down here. The water isn’t sufficiently chummed for mergers and acquisitions just yet.[/QUOTE]

no Massa Gary might be hurting but he ain’t the one leveraged out his ass…I believe it is his mini-me Shane Guidry who has made the deal with the Wall Street devils who are going to be demanding where their money is and when they’ll be getting it? I hope to hell that they pull the plug on ol’ Bubba Shane Boy and sell the whole HGIM fleet to Charles Fabrikant for whatever they can salvage from their misadventure into the filthy world of offshore energy.

nothing but a FAT MISERABLE PIECE OF SHIT that S-Bag is!

have I mentioned how much I hate that guy?

[QUOTE=c.captain;175670]have I mentioned how much I hate that guy?[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

Care to explain exactly why you hate him? I’m being serious, I don’t know much about him

[QUOTE=Colston1285;175673]Care to explain exactly why you hate him? I’m being serious, I don’t know much about him[/QUOTE]

Shane is JOE BOSS personified! Every bit as bad as Gary Chouest but I at least give the Godfather his due however Bubba Shane is nothing but a PUNK who wants to be Gary (or should I say “wanted” to be…he ain’t never gonna rise to be the Godfather himself now and will be lucky if he escapes this downturn alive)

I don’t see ECO getting bought out or failing. Harvey on the other hand…

[QUOTE=Bayrunner;175677]I don’t see ECO getting bought out or failing. Harvey on the other hand…[/QUOTE]

I wouldn’t think tdw either.

“debt that’s more than four times Ebitda is often a precursor to restructuring or bankruptcy”

I don’t really pay too much attention to the guys who come to work with tales of doom and gloom. Whatever happens…happens and I will move on. But I am curious how analysts interpret the information. I’ve tried to read earnings reports and it’s like Latin to me. I don’t get it. Anyone know how to read between the lines or follow the lingo? I did not minor in finance or economics.

[QUOTE=Quimby;175683]Anyone know how to read between the lines or follow the lingo? I did not minor in finance or economics.[/QUOTE]

it is so fucking simple just like a mortgage or a big truck you’ve financed…if you don’t have the monthly income to make the payments, at some point the lender will pull the plug on you, take the collateral from you and then will sell it to get some of their loan back. The lenders don’t do this overnight with a repoman but in the end they will get their money back or they’ll take your assets

I love how guys who know jack shit about the oilfield and definitely know nothing of company specifics are the ones that love to comment about OSV companies.