China, U.S, Taiwan

I had a water rocket as a kid. I’d hate to be the guy who has to pump up one of those ballistic missiles though…

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It would be remarkable and fortuitous if this story is true.

Important point. The article points to anecdotal evidence and buries the lead like an afterthought: “The US assessments couldn’t be independently verified”. US assessments have been way off base in the past (see Iraq war).
Interesting that the article draws a parallel between the corruption of the Chinese army to the Russians army. The Russians are fighting in Ukraine with crappy equipment, poor training and low morale but they’re still dangerous and people are still dying.

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2015 is a very long time ago. Relations between the US and PRC were fairly cordial then. Today it is quite different with a lot more friction points between the two nations and a Chinese military that might see itself as more than a match for that of the US in regional war proximate to the Chinese mainland. You also have to consider that there has been a considerable degree of economic disengagement since roughly 2018 and it is accelerating. Xi Jinping has shown himself to be very much a Maoist true believer, and has created laws that very much threaten the ability of western firms to do business in China. He is doing this very deliberately too. Xi is an advocate of state owned enterprises and is telling private firms in China to look to the sclerotic SOEs for leadership. Laughable as that seems that is Xi’s policy. Now he is forcing private firms to retain a CCP political officer to indoctrinate employees on Xis thinking and to monitor the behavior of the firm, something that is driving more western firms out of China. I am not alone believing that PRC will try to take Taiwan by force inside five years from now, maybe much sooner than that.

You forgot number 6. After you have thrown tarps over or moved indoors anything that might be interesting outside, line up all the USAF personnel at one of the sites the balloon overflew in a parking lot in a formation shaped like a hand extending the middle finger. The US Navy does this sot of thing all the time on aircraft carrier flight decks for commemorative photos. Have all the personnel extend their right hand in the air likewise giving the middle finger to the Middle Kingdom. Then stop jamming the balloon long enough for them to get a good clear image of your military formation (:
I am only being half facetious btw. Sometimes there is value in poking fun at your adversary that way, and humiliate their own spooks in the process.

In the shape of Winnie-the-Poo

Cheers Xi

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Things are happening in the wake of Taiwan election:

US is disappointed:

Isn’t this also the official position of the US, as declared when changing recognition from RoC(Taiwan) to PRC in 1989 and confirmed by President Biden as late as a few days ago?

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1979, and yeah. Kinda hypocritical to say the least.

When was Taiwan part of China?

Well, if you don’t mind pissing off Beijing, then Taiwan (otherwise known as the Republic of China) IS China, or at least what’s left of it after the communist revolution won on the mainland. Sooooo… to answer your question, is has been since 1683 when it was annexed by the Qing dynasty. But it’s been (part of) the Republic of China since the emperor was deposed in 1911.

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but more complicated than that

or should Taiwan take over the mainland and rightly make it the ROC

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Bring back the ridiculous situation from 1949 to -79, when the world was suppose to believe that the ROC Government on Taiwan was the defacto Government of China and held a permanent seat in the UN Security Council?
KMT even had seats in the Yuan (ROC Parliament) for the various provinces in mainland China.

Only 12 small countries recognizing ROC Taiwan as an independent nation today and NOBODY believe that it rules Mainland China. (Even old KMT stalwarts)

Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895 until 1945:

Source: HISTORY - Taiwan.gov.tw - Government Portal of the Republic of China (Taiwan)