[QUOTE=Tugs;175046]The correct quote should have been “May I Have Another”.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Tugs;175046]The correct quote should have been “May I Have Another”.[/QUOTE]
Just popped over to NYMEX. Crude is down another buck to $36.73.
$20 anyone?
[QUOTE=Jetryder223;175050]Just popped over to NYMEX. Crude is down another buck to $36.73.
$20 anyone?[/QUOTE]
that’s what Goldman Sachs believes is possible however the bottom will happen only when global production reaches global demand and without any producers willingly cutting their production it will take economic growth to stop shrinking and to begin growing again. I remember the 1980’s price crash and this current crash is identical imo…that one took 5 years to turn around and then it was a slow climb back
[QUOTE=Tugs;175046]The correct quote should have been “May I Have Another”.[/QUOTE]
That would be accurate if I was requesting, however in this case I was granting. . . .
And the price of crude continues it’s decline. Took a peek at Crude futures out to December 2018 and the strike price is only $53. So the experts are saying cheap oil will be with us for a while and the $70 strike price needed to support offshore extraction is nowhere in sight.
Who said 5 years? Maybe 20? Looking to be the case.
Any mariner still working the GoM should plan on finishing their career elsewhere.
(PS - This Commodity/Futures speculation is kind of cool. Some really smart people writing some interesting opinions on where everything is headed. Sort of like gambling but without the odds always in favor of the house. Wish I had some $ to invest. If I did, I might want to short crude over a 3-6 month time horizon.)
(PPS - Short anything GoM related too.)
A year and a half ago what position did these experts have on crude three years out? Three years ago did they hold $40/bbl? Doubt too many did.
[QUOTE=DeckApe;175124]A year and a half ago what position did these experts have on crude three years out? Three years ago did they hold $40/bbl? Doubt too many did.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, it’s a crap shoot at best. . . kind of like what the temperature is gonna be in 10 years. . . .
[QUOTE=DeckApe;175124]A year and a half ago what position did these experts have on crude three years out? Three years ago did they hold $40/bbl? Doubt too many did.[/QUOTE]
Sir, You can not post stuff like that on here. That would not meet the agenda of why this thread was started.
[QUOTE=AB Murph;175129] That would not meet the agenda of why this thread was started.[/QUOTE]
I know not of what you speak sir.
If you believe I am behind some investment pump & dump scheme, you honor me with a level of cleverness that I just don’t have.
It’s like gold. My dad keeps telling me to invest in gold. ‘Its fallen so far it has nowhere to go but up!’ That and penny stocks for companies researching cures for cancer. No wonder he’s broke. ‘I’ll hit big when someone cures cancer!’
I agree except for one change: Every mariner should plan on finishing their career elsewhere. All it will take is one bad year where parts of the Jones Act is repealed and it’s curtains for all of us.
[QUOTE=DeckApe;175138]It’s like gold. My dad keeps telling me to invest in gold. ‘Its fallen so far it has nowhere to go but up!’ That and penny stocks for companies researching cures for cancer. No wonder he’s broke. ‘I’ll hit big when someone cures cancer!’[/QUOTE]
The old line was that “gold never declines”, see how well that held up. Long term projections for gold are dismal. If you’d bought $100 of gold 100 years ago you would have about $150 now…
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[QUOTE=Jetryder223;175109](PS - This Commodity/Futures speculation is kind of cool. Some really smart people writing some interesting opinions on where everything is headed. Sort of like gambling but without the odds always in favor of the house. Wish I had some $ to invest. If I did, I might want to short crude over a 3-6 month time horizon.)[/QUOTE]
I wish futures trading would be outlawed. These rich people speculating actually effect prices drastically.
$35.62! $20 here we come!
[QUOTE=follow40;175150]$35.62! $20 here we come![/QUOTE]
That’s 2 bucks in 4 days.
At this rate, oil will be free in 3 months.
[QUOTE=Jetryder223;175158]That’s 2 bucks in 4 days.
At this rate, oil will be free in 3 months.[/QUOTE]
ah, the joys of being an oil trader right now…nothing you can do which will not lose money
[B]US oil settles at $35.62 a barrel, plunges over 10% for week[/B]
U.S. oil futures settled lower on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oversupply of crude could worsen next year.
Brent and U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell as much as 5 percent on the day and 12 percent on the week as mild pre-winter weather and a plummeting U.S. stock market added to the toll on oil prices.
Oil traders and analysts were perplexed by the intensity of the decline, coming exactly a week after Dec. 4 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all but abandoned price support for crude after removing its production ceiling in an oversupplied.
“Very tough to find cause to get bullish here,” said Peter Donovan, broker at Liquidity Energy in New York.
“The bearish IEA report has put further selling pressure on an already soft market. The back months have actually been hit a bit harder than the fronts as the report dispelled thoughts that a price recovery was on the not-too-distant horizon.”
Brent crude futures slipped below $38 a barrel for the first time since December 2008. It was last trading at $37.94a barrel, down 4.5 percent.
Brent’s session low was $37.36 — barely a dollar above the $36.20 hit during the financial crisis. If it falls through that, it will go to June 2004 lows, when it traded at around $34 a barrel.
WTI entered the $35 territory for the first time since February 2009. It settled at $35.62 a barrel, down 3.1 percent, or $1.14. WTI’s financial crisis low was $32.40 in December 2008.
The market pared losses just slightly after data showing U.S. drillers cut the number of oil rigs operating in the country for a 14th week out of 15 to the least since April 2010.
Crude awakening
The IEA, which advises developed nations on energy, warned that demand growth was starting to slow.
“Consumption is likely to have peaked in the third quarter and demand growth is expected to slow to a still-healthy 1.2 million bpd (barrels per day) in 2016, as support from sharply falling oil prices begins to fade,” the energy watchdog said in its monthly oil report.
Crude prices have fallen with little restraint since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ meeting last week. Data also showed OPEC pumped 31.7 million bpd in November, more oil than any month since late 2008.
Banks such as Goldman Sachs have said oil could fall to $20 a barrel if the world runs out of capacity to store unwanted supply.
“The WTI and Brent markets are trending at this point with no real interest from anyone to buy,” said Scott Shelton, broker and commodities specialist at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina.
“The forecast remains incredibly warm for the U.S. That’s a large drag on demand and means less demand for distillates and more for export, which drags down the rest of the world as well.”
U.S. weather forecasts call for warmer-than-normal temperatures through Christmas that would curb heating demand, boosting U.S. gasoline futures higher than heating oil prices in December for the first time in at least five years.
Gasoline’s premium to heating oil for the January contracts widened as the heating oil contract slumped almost 6 percent while gasoline fell 0.4 percent.
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and other than the fact that gold is a fabulous conductor of electricity what else makes it so valuable? can’t eat it, doesn’t cure disease, won’t smite your foes
Oil is Hazmat. If you don’t believe me, spill some… Think “Stranded Assets”
Gold does pretty well in the Galvanic corrosion table.
what has true and real value is that which is needed for survival and when any of that is in short supply the cost of it goes higher than any gold ever will
think fresh potable water and any food after an earthquake or a flood or typhoon? think the SuperDome after Katrina then try imagine that on a national or even global scale?
Americans have never suffered privation caused by war (except the Confederacy during the Civil War years) so we do not know how worthless the crap we surround ourselves really is
In the words of S. Hayden; Note verse 3,
“To be truly challenging, a voyage, like a life, must rest on a firm foundation of financial unrest. Otherwise, you are doomed to a routine traverse, the kind known to yachtsmen who play with their boats at sea… “cruising” it is called. Voyaging belongs to seamen, and to the wanderers of the world who cannot, or will not, fit in. If you are contemplating a voyage and you have the means, abandon the venture until your fortunes change. Only then will you know what the sea is all about.
“I’ve always wanted to sail to the south seas, but I can’t afford it.” What these men can’t afford is not to go. They are enmeshed in the cancerous discipline of “security.” And in the worship of security we fling our lives beneath the wheels of routine - and before we know it our lives are gone.
What does a man need - really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in - and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That’s all - in the material sense, and we know it. But we are brainwashed by our economic system until we end up in a tomb beneath a pyramid of time payments, mortgages, preposterous gadgetry, playthings that divert our attention for the sheer idiocy of the charade.
The years thunder by, The dreams of youth grow dim where they lie caked in dust on the shelves of patience. Before we know it, the tomb is sealed.
Where, then, lies the answer? In choice. Which shall it be: bankruptcy of purse or bankruptcy of life? ”
― Sterling Hayden, Wanderer
[QUOTE=Jetryder223;175158]That’s 2 bucks in 4 days.
At this rate, oil will be free in 3 months.[/QUOTE]
In 4 months the oil companies will be paying people to take it off their hands haha. Their pumping so much they’ll run out of places to store it.
[QUOTE=follow40;175179]Their pumping so much they’ll run out of places to store it.[/QUOTE]
believe me that has already happened…there is a huge shortage of large crude carriers at the moment because so many were filled when the price for crude was higher than today and the owners of the oil are stuck paying the charter of the ships to just sit at anchor in the slim prayer that the price will go higher soon enough in the future to justify the cost to park it. There are going to be major bankruptcies happening soon.
also, storage tanks on land are all filled to capacity and there is no place ashore to park your oil for the future. It is obviously a good time to be in the tanker or oil storage business.