With regards to looking at incidents. The NTSB and the CG may do better but they these biases as well. After the fact explanations always have perfect hindsight… - The Big Picture The Narrative Fallacy reflects our tendency to see the world as a story: “a linear chain of cause and effect, with …

[image] tugsailor: he forum called the Kulluk-on-the-Rocks debacle just about right while it was unfolding. I was thinking about that. CC said early on the tow wire parted, that didn’t make sense to me till I saw the video of the wire getting fiddle stringed (Bing!) To me it didn’t make sens…

The forum called the BOUNTY about right too. A lot of speculative ideas built on a lot of informed guesses get thrown into the forum and usually get distilled fairly close to what happened. The forum continues to point out errors and false conclusions in the EL FARO report. I think that the foru…

[image] DeckApe: To use the EV example, if reasonable and experienced mariners thought Valdez was taking a dangerous shortcut could it be that ships have tried to take that dangerous shortcut in the past? Smaller vessels do use that route. Blight reef is about due East of the south end of th…

I said it before and I was right. The Captain of the EF was mired in his own biases, and only perhaps realized at the very end his role in endangering the vessel. You could see it in the transcript, in the offhanded way he dismissed the concerns of the mates. It’s hard to criticize the dead, given t…

I’m surprised that local masters suggested that EXXON VALDEZ was taking a “short cut” behind Bligh Reef. It would be insane to take a big ship through there. That would be the last thing I would expect. When I heard about this incident I was incredulous. Given how wide open and clear the passages …

[image] Tupsis: My impression is that as we have a number of professionals with slightly different backgrounds and specialities looking the case from different angles, we are more likely to converge towards truth over time compared to a single commentator who may sometimes even cling to his/her …

Whenever I did have a opportunity to see the popular tv news on a “real” maritime incident the media didn’t have a clue what questions to ask, nor, evidently, who to ask. Total rubbish was generally the result of their report. Any more, I go straight to 'G Capt." to learn anything and this is wha…

[image] tugsailor: I’m surprised that local masters suggested that EXXON VALDEZ was taking a “short cut” behind Bligh Reef. It would be insane to take a big ship through there. That would be the last thing I would expect. When I heard about this incident I was incredulous. Given how wide open …

[image] jimrr: Whenever I did have a opportunity to see the popular tv news on a “real” maritime incident the media didn’t have a clue what questions to ask, nor, evidently, who to ask. Total rubbish was generally the result of their report. Any more, I go straight to 'G Capt." to learn anyth…

[image] Tupsis: My impression is that as we have a number of professionals with slightly different backgrounds and specialities looking the case from different angles, we are more likely to converge towards truth over time compared to a single commentator who may sometimes even cling to his/her …

Why the gcaptain forum sometimes gets it wrong

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Why the gcaptain forum sometimes gets it wrong

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