This is from a summary of theplot of the movie “The Hangover” from Wikipedia;
The next morning, Phil, Stu and Alan awaken to find they have no memory of the previous night, and Doug is nowhere to be found. Stu is missing a tooth, their hotel suite is in disarray, a tiger is in their bathroom, a chicken in their living room, and a baby is in the closet, whom they name “Carlos”. They find Doug’s mattress impaled on a statue outside of their hotel and when they ask for their Mercedes, the valet delivers an LVPD police cruiser.
Granted this is an absurd (but funny) comedy but it is similar to how we learn about marine incidents. If each forum member attempts to recreate the actual plot of the movie based on these known facts the possibilities are endless, some will be more plausible or more likely but none of us will hit on the exact plot in a detailed way. The best we can do is speculate on broad basis.
For example when we learn that the movie takes place in LasVegas we may assume that drugs and alcohol played a role and we know that these cause impaired judgement but beyond that further assumptions become guesses that just take us further and further out on a limb of decreasing likelihood.
In the case of the movie we understand that the only way to make sense of the scene in the hotel room is to have the movie unfold for us as we watch it. With marine incidents we try to make sense of it using our past experiences and our knowledge or assumptions about human behavior and maritime affairs.